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03-28-2021 , 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GlassGlazer
you making things up are not points against bitcoin.

You're worse than a bear. You're a contrarian making things up.

You going to admit that most ppl aren't down on bitcoin? As you stated. lol and i called it even you someone who claims most ppl are down on btc is up.

Also can't call this a irrational circle jerk when your "points" are verifiably wrong. Also based on the performance of BTC and the arrogance of Bears a little circle jerk seems more than warranted.

lol so you had like 5 dollars on MTX gox. bfd. I got quadrigaed and dont see the need to make up silly narratives to attack bitcoin.
It was like 4K at the time and put me off Bitcoin for like 6 years.

Saying 95% of wallets are in profit doesn’t really tell the whole story. Is that calculating all transfers?
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-28-2021 , 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doorbread
All you need to know about coordi and him “not being a bear” but definitely being a lazy uninformed troll
You can look up my history with bitcoin in this thread. It’s not hard to find.

As for the post you quoted, not sure what you are trying to prove? That I find the obsession with ts silly? That’s consistent as well
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-28-2021 , 06:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sled mobiles
By the way, the 900 a day is actually starting to get held by miners more now instead of dumped. Saylor talks about this, miners moving forward may have more incentive to hold. Read up on his thoughts, they make some sense. If that plays out, there's nothing holding us back from 300k+ much quicker than people think is possible.
So if it's possible that enough miners can decide to hold BTC rather than sell, and if that means that the price would shoot up, then does that not mean that a time would then follow where the miners all sell and the price crashes?
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-28-2021 , 06:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sled mobiles
Interesting takes, thanks for that. I'm more of the mind that since defi exists and is iterating at a blinding pace, web 3.0 stuff is rolling out, NFTs are the normie mainstream adoption vehicle, virtual worlds built on crypto networks are live and growing month on month, there will be less of a blow off top and receding bear market. There's just way more to do with your crypto than there was 3 years ago. I don't think we'll have another 80% drawdown like previous cycles. There are just too many places to park your stuff in interest bearing accounts where people will feel a little better about just holding. Don't get me wrong, many will try to time and sell the top, just not as many as previous cycles.

Plus as this entire market moves from super niche to institutional adoption/early investors to early mainstream I think the massive volatility subsides. We're def not there yet, probably a few years away from true early mainstream adoption 20-40% range if I had to guess, but just moving closer to that point day by day makes me think the eventual bubble bursting won't be nearly as cataclysmic as previous tops. It's a bubble once, after the third, if it keeps coming back and reaching new highs and higher adoption rates then at some point we just reach the point of no return. You don't have 4,5,6 huge bubbles in something.

My personal guess that I've held since we broke 20k is that we hit 150-300k by year end/early next year, take a breather of maybe 30-50%, then head higher again. Am I naive? I understand no one knows, just wondering if I'm missing something obvious.

By the way, the 900 a day is actually starting to get held by miners more now instead of dumped. Saylor talks about this, miners moving forward may have more incentive to hold. Read up on his thoughts, they make some sense. If that plays out, there's nothing holding us back from 300k+ much quicker than people think is possible.
UpOnlyTV does some interesting podcasts and while there's contention about the definition of "supercycle", it was curious that Arthur_0x (SNX guy) said no supercycle, while Su Zhu (3 arrows capital) said yes supercycle. Arthur's salient point was that the legacy finance money he's seeing coming into defi all still denominate their holding as an expression of USD. And he thinks they are definitely going to continue to view things this way beyond 2021, "cashing out for USD" if and when bitcoin appreciates in price. Of course for a lot of all-in crypto-heads, btc is the denominator and its buying power is still unreasonably low, so offloading is going short btc.

But "crypto native" people are going to watch as legacy finance hops into crypto, is blown away by their "USD gainz", offloads, then later, whoops-swivel-back-in-since-fiat-dying. There's still a massive amount of cluelessness and confusion with regards to btc, and I suspect this peak & valley at the end of this year will be the biggest spectacle in terms of not only btc price drama, but any finance-related news, of our lifetimes. Later cycles will still have volatility and the "gains" vs usd will seem high, but btc buying power will just trend upwards with fiat doing the opposite, with less hullabaloo until goods & services stop trending up so fast, and the biggest winners start deploying these coins more readily, hopefully to do more than create autistic citadels.

As for trying to trade BTCUSD through this end of year peak vs just continue selling alts for BTC, I am still torn and might default to recognizing my own inexperience and lack of real professional trading acumen. All my altcoin focuses have been to generate more btc, but they have felt easier to beat than trying to do something very dangerous - taking USD to "plan to get btc when it's cheaper". Yes, we will blow-off some bonkers number. Yes, we will dip later. But say I have portions of my sells too early, and am "waiting for X", yet the pullback ends up being 55% rather than 80%, and we have an abbreviated bear market while I'm sitting around with USD. I'm not skilled enough to recognize when to cut my losses and just pile the USD back in, so it could be best to not push my luck after some great fortune in altcoins, just hodl as covid ends and go outside.

Saylor uses the analogy - would a Venezuelan "cash out" his USD for bolivares when it appreciates vs the bolivar a lot, and plan to just buy back in later when it dips? We are pretty far away from this for USD, and it will get sliced up in a longer kicking-and-screaming melodrama, before finally accelerating into the ground later in the decade. But if you understand this bitcoin thing, you realize if you are not trading your satoshis for things you really need, or literally buying time in some way shape or form, you are short btc. Trading it for any other asset you deem an "investment vehicle/store of value", is just borrowing something else to buy back btc later, since btc is money appreciating its buying power a few hundred percent a year, nearly 2/3 the way through its gestation period, that will absorb roughly 100% of the immediately unneeded monetary energy of humanity.

As for your point about miners holding btc - in the short term yes, a lack of btc on exchanges can produce some "shortage" mania, even though there are plenty of satoshis flying around. It looks like people really are clueless about how the stock to flow works. If the price gets beyond a certain level, you can just deploy capital to be partially in control of mining it with obscene profitability yourself. Even a few years from now, there will still be a whopping 450btc mined every single day. Sure, btc's relation to fiat might get torched, but humans capable of organizing themselves to tap into this crypto-energy will use their resources to do so right from the source, if wallets aren't trading coins for goods, services, or dying currencies. This continual and impactive % of total bitcoins still being mined daily limits the wildest of citadel fantasies and quick class-gap dystopia shifts possible between nocoiners and early adopters; btc cannot fundamentally "go to infinity", it just needs to move toward its fair market buying power compared to the goods & services & time we all want to buy.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-28-2021 , 07:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
It was like 4K at the time and put me off Bitcoin for like 6 years.

Saying 95% of wallets are in profit doesn’t really tell the whole story. Is that calculating all transfers?
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
Most peoples experience with bitcoin is buying the top and immediately getting rug pulled.
Good thing I never claimed 95 percent of wallets were in profits.

Just walk back your false claim instead of moving the goal posts. You can gain some credibility admitting what you said is wrong.

Or can show yourself to be TS and let everyone know they are dealing w someone dishonest that is not worth interacting with except to point and laugh.

Ty for sharing where btc touched you. Its time to move on 6 years is too long to hold onto hate in your heart

Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
I actually did have 5 dollars on Quadriga so am a creditor lol.

I'd like to see the Gox creditor list. Wonder how many ppl had < 9 BTC.
Welcome to the squad.

Don't worry something like 36,000 people filled out claims. Even the "person" w 45 million has claimed his funds.

we should be getting back 1-2 percent in 2026.

GOD BTC is such a scammmmmm . Hopefully the government will regulate and shut it down before more innocent men and children lose their savings to this ponzi wave of death.

Last edited by GlassGlazer; 03-28-2021 at 07:35 PM.
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03-28-2021 , 08:21 PM
Someone else itt claimed 95%. Until you prove what I said was false I'm not sure what to tell you.
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03-28-2021 , 08:39 PM
Anyone ever get Blockchain.com "error" historical data not found for BTCUSD...?
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-28-2021 , 09:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GlassGlazer
Welcome to the squad.

Don't worry something like 36,000 people filled out claims. Even the "person" w 45 million has claimed his funds.

we should be getting back 1-2 percent in 2026.
I definitely didn't fill out the claim
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-28-2021 , 10:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
Someone else itt claimed 95%. Until you prove what I said was false I'm not sure what to tell you.
https://app.intotheblock.com/coin/BTC

Ok, was slightly off. Point remains that everyone isn't rugged after buying the top which was a ridiculous assertion.

91% in profit

6% breakeven

3% underwater

You can get better data by paying for this app or Glassnode but it's not rocket science, we're sitting at $55k
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-28-2021 , 11:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMVP
https://app.intotheblock.com/coin/BTC

Ok, was slightly off. Point remains that everyone isn't rugged after buying the top which was a ridiculous assertion.

91% in profit

6% breakeven

3% underwater

You can get better data by paying for this app or Glassnode but it's not rocket science, we're sitting at $55k
Which of you came up with term "rugged" and what does it mean. I feel like it's just started popping up. And it's all from small time alt/defi trading people it seems.

My best guess is your saying the thing you invest in that you know is a scam, pulls the rug out while your in it before you can get out. And if that's the case, your all ****ing idiots and that's why I have mils and you have stacks of shitcoins. Mother ****ing mils with the most expensive crypto out there. You keep playing games with your ****ing BS penny coins

Last edited by onemoretimes; 03-28-2021 at 11:36 PM.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-29-2021 , 12:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by onemoretimes
Which of you came up with term "rugged" and what does it mean. I feel like it's just started popping up. And it's all from small time alt/defi trading people it seems.

My best guess is your saying the thing you invest in that you know is a scam, pulls the rug out while your in it before you can get out. And if that's the case, your all ****ing idiots and that's why I have mils and you have stacks of shitcoins. Mother ****ing mils with the most expensive crypto out there. You keep playing games with your ****ing BS penny coins
Interesting take
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-29-2021 , 12:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
a happy multi-millionaire, you don't say
Mo money Mo problems
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03-29-2021 , 12:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
No need for hyperbole when we can easily fact check. The average dip was 35% and none exceeded ~39%. I'm sure you can find some exchange data to show 40% but that's not the point. Just because a -40% move hasn't happened yet in this bull run doesn't mean it won't in the future.



I don't think anyone is pretending the cycles will repeat indefinitely, but 12 years in with a $1 trillion asset and worldwide adoption not even starting its parabolic ascent the signs are pointing to further volatility. The simple answer (imo) is if S2F allows for the price to overshoot the model price by 2-3x then there needs to be a valve to release the frothy euphoria and stay within the predicted range of an average of 288k between 2020-2024. If the market cap was sufficiently large (hint: not $1 trillion) and buyers acted rationally and didn't FOMO in looking for quick 2-3x flips than smaller bear market corrections might be possible, and likely will be in the future, but I'm not seeing that playing out this cycle. Retail FOMO euphoria hasn't even begun to kick in yet.

For what it's worth, the difference between the -85% correction we had that bottomed in Dec. 2018 and a -70% correction is the final leg down from $6000 to $3150 after 6k held support for nearly 5 months.
Lol, claim I'm being hyperbolic then yourself state we had a 39% max and average 35% dip. Maybe hyperbole isn't the right word here if by your account I'm off by 1 % point, which I'm not. If I wasn't a boomer and knew how to insert an image I'd show you the Bloomberg chart from 2017 showing a 40% dip, along with a 38%'er. If splitting hairs over 1% is your focus maybe your intent in dealing with my argument isn't coming from the best place. Anyway, moving on.

I agree, I think we will have a blow off, maybe at 200, maybe at 300, but I just don't think we blow off from ex. 300 back to 75 again for a bunch of reasons I already gave. If we hit 300k, market cap is then roughly 6t. You're comparing price action at 300b, the blow off in 2017, to 6t when/if we hit 300k this cycle? If we get to 6t cap, its not because mom and dad are all in, its because Blackrock and Fidelity and JP, SWFs, family officers and all those guys have taken positions or at the very least are offering services to their clients. As this more sophisticated, longer time horizon investor comes in the swings don't get wilder, they get smaller. You don't have Joe the plumber swinging in and out causing 40% dips every 3 months, retail money is dwarfed by inst money. The narratives from previous cycles don't apply, retail can't keep up. You're already seeing it, the dips at 28, 42, and 62 are getting bought up by long term holder and whale wallets, all tracked onchain. Tiktok isn't in control of the market like it was 4 years ago (youtube back then).

Retail will def have SOME impact, sure. But the market dynamics have shifted. Again, why will we get the same results with diff players, diff time horizons, diff usable products, diff m1 and m2 factors, besides lines drawn on a chart. This is why I said, yes, we will have a blow off, retail will show up in huge numbers at some point, but they just can't move a 6t market as easily.

If Blackrock wants to dump us 80% go ahead and make that argument, but then you're chasing your own tail because that argument will imply that the smartest investors on the planet are currently and continually buying into an asset enough to drive it up to 5-10t only to dump at the top with everyone paranoid looking over their shoulder all the way up looking for signs that its coming, thus creating the 4th such bubble in an asset that is no longer a niche fringe bubbley thing but rather has gained mainstream financial acceptance. Not to mention paying much higher short term cap gains taxes. Doesn't make sense.

Last edited by sled mobiles; 03-29-2021 at 12:26 AM.
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03-29-2021 , 01:03 AM
My boomer ass figured it out.



maybe not. Anyone help, how do I insert an image without using a url?
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-29-2021 , 02:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sled mobiles
My boomer ass figured it out.



maybe not. Anyone help, how do I insert an image without using a url?
Just do the numbers at the end of your link, not the entire link. Quote my post if you need a visual:

Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-29-2021 , 02:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 27offsuit
Just do the numbers at the end of your link, not the entire link. Quote my post if you need a visual:

Thanks boss, any way to post one saved on my comp? No url.
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03-29-2021 , 05:15 AM
There are plenty of scenarios where fed int rate hike = 70-95% decrease/5+ year bear market.
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03-29-2021 , 05:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sled mobiles
Thanks boss, any way to post one saved on my comp? No url.


Open it on your comp, take a screenshot and post that URL.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-29-2021 , 05:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by onemoretimes
Which of you came up with term "rugged" and what does it mean. I feel like it's just started popping up. And it's all from small time alt/defi trading people it seems.

My best guess is your saying the thing you invest in that you know is a scam, pulls the rug out while your in it before you can get out. And if that's the case, your all ****ing idiots and that's why I have mils and you have stacks of shitcoins. Mother ****ing mils with the most expensive crypto out there. You keep playing games with your ****ing BS penny coins


Not many people here are going to be impressed with you bragging about having mills. You wouldn’t even have to have been in crypto for long for this to be the case, plenty of them are idiots too.

I’m pretty certain no one itt came up with the term rugged.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-29-2021 , 07:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sled mobiles
Interesting takes, thanks for that. I'm more of the mind that since defi exists and is iterating at a blinding pace, web 3.0 stuff is rolling out, NFTs are the normie mainstream adoption vehicle, virtual worlds built on crypto networks are live and growing month on month, there will be less of a blow off top and receding bear market. There's just way more to do with your crypto than there was 3 years ago. I don't think we'll have another 80% drawdown like previous cycles. There are just too many places to park your stuff in interest bearing accounts where people will feel a little better about just holding. Don't get me wrong, many will try to time and sell the top, just not as many as previous cycles.
I think this is overly enthusiastic. There was a lot of similar talk four years ago, about all of the things that were possible with both Bitcoin and alts. Use cases take a long time to build out, and then they take a long time to gain adoption. Even trends that are strong and almost inevitable will have more fundamental effects on price in the future rather than now. To the extent that they have an effect on price right now, it's mostly speculative, and that only strengthens the case that there will be a bust after the boom. DeFi, much like Ethereum in 2017, is mostly a vehicle for speculation on shitcoins. Using that to generate yield on your capital is the "selling shovels" of the hype, nothing wrong with that, but when the speculation mania collapses, DeFi will deflate. Eventually we will see which projects thrive in the long run, but I don't think it will have much effect on holding up a higher BTC price in a crash and bear market.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sled mobiles
Plus as this entire market moves from super niche to institutional adoption/early investors to early mainstream I think the massive volatility subsides. We're def not there yet, probably a few years away from true early mainstream adoption 20-40% range if I had to guess, but just moving closer to that point day by day makes me think the eventual bubble bursting won't be nearly as cataclysmic as previous tops. It's a bubble once, after the third, if it keeps coming back and reaching new highs and higher adoption rates then at some point we just reach the point of no return. You don't have 4,5,6 huge bubbles in something.

My personal guess that I've held since we broke 20k is that we hit 150-300k by year end/early next year, take a breather of maybe 30-50%, then head higher again. Am I naive? I understand no one knows, just wondering if I'm missing something obvious.
So there will be a normal bull market crash, and afterwards there will still be a bull market instead of a bear market. You are just saying that you don't think that is the top. What do you think the top will be, and when?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sled mobiles
By the way, the 900 a day is actually starting to get held by miners more now instead of dumped. Saylor talks about this, miners moving forward may have more incentive to hold. Read up on his thoughts, they make some sense. If that plays out, there's nothing holding us back from 300k+ much quicker than people think is possible.
Miners are some of the most bullish people in Bitcoin, it shouldn't surprise anyone that they keep their gains in BTC. As long as price goes up, they are very profitable, but if it doesn't then it doesn't take long for the difficulty adjustment to force them to sell to cover expenses again. If price gets very high, and they expect it to be lower in the coming year or two, many will also sell some to secure their operations in a price war, and to be able to make longer term profitable investments.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sled mobiles
Lol, claim I'm being hyperbolic then yourself state we had a 39% max and average 35% dip. Maybe hyperbole isn't the right word here if by your account I'm off by 1 % point, which I'm not. If I wasn't a boomer and knew how to insert an image I'd show you the Bloomberg chart from 2017 showing a 40% dip, along with a 38%'er. If splitting hairs over 1% is your focus maybe your intent in dealing with my argument isn't coming from the best place. Anyway, moving on.

I agree, I think we will have a blow off, maybe at 200, maybe at 300, but I just don't think we blow off from ex. 300 back to 75 again for a bunch of reasons I already gave. If we hit 300k, market cap is then roughly 6t. You're comparing price action at 300b, the blow off in 2017, to 6t when/if we hit 300k this cycle? If we get to 6t cap, its not because mom and dad are all in, its because Blackrock and Fidelity and JP, SWFs, family officers and all those guys have taken positions or at the very least are offering services to their clients. As this more sophisticated, longer time horizon investor comes in the swings don't get wilder, they get smaller. You don't have Joe the plumber swinging in and out causing 40% dips every 3 months, retail money is dwarfed by inst money. The narratives from previous cycles don't apply, retail can't keep up. You're already seeing it, the dips at 28, 42, and 62 are getting bought up by long term holder and whale wallets, all tracked onchain. Tiktok isn't in control of the market like it was 4 years ago (youtube back then).

Retail will def have SOME impact, sure. But the market dynamics have shifted. Again, why will we get the same results with diff players, diff time horizons, diff usable products, diff m1 and m2 factors, besides lines drawn on a chart. This is why I said, yes, we will have a blow off, retail will show up in huge numbers at some point, but they just can't move a 6t market as easily.

If Blackrock wants to dump us 80% go ahead and make that argument, but then you're chasing your own tail because that argument will imply that the smartest investors on the planet are currently and continually buying into an asset enough to drive it up to 5-10t only to dump at the top with everyone paranoid looking over their shoulder all the way up looking for signs that its coming, thus creating the 4th such bubble in an asset that is no longer a niche fringe bubbley thing but rather has gained mainstream financial acceptance. Not to mention paying much higher short term cap gains taxes. Doesn't make sense.
You claim that repeating hype cycles is a pattern that predictably extends into the future. Given that claim, the onus is on you to explain any deviations that you see from that pattern. You do that, but in my opinion you are biased in the direction of a higher BTC price. You say that the greater share of institutional investment will lead to a higher bottom in the eventual bear market. If that is because they don't get irrationally afraid when they price drops, then they also shouldn't be irrationally caught up in the hype on the way up, leading to a lower top. If a reason for the higher bottom is that their investment strategy is based on a percentage allocation, leading to them buying more when the price drops, that would also suggest that they will be trimming when the price goes up, and therefore also leading to a lower top. If the argument is that they are intelligent investors, then why wouldn't they hold off investing on the top, and welcome and hold off for a crash where they can buy cheaper?

I think there are merits to your arguments, but I think it's more of a longer term trend, where it will have some effect in the coming year, but mostly become more and more dominant in the coming 10-20 years. The new investors might be more sofisticated, but they are still quite new to Bitcoin, they don't have the same conviction as people who have been involved with it for many years, and they still measure their investment in USD.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-29-2021 , 08:51 AM
I appreciate your thoughts here Mat. I guess I see this cycle as clearly distinguished from 4 years ago because of the white paper/ICO, zero apps, hey look crypto kitties mania of 2017 vs the install metamask in your browser in 2 clicks, move some eth over and in 5 minutes you can find a 15% park for USD, you can play tix or wix with simple easy UI, you can scroll through and buy art or game items on open sea or a dozen other live NFT sites, you can buy and sell digital land and build on it in a virtual world, you can provide liq in a hundred different places, you can speculate on every single new coin that pops up on dex's, you can buy and sell synthetic gold, stocks, whatever, environment. Some of this stuff you or others may scoff at, and yes there's a ton of speculation here, but its real activity. People have a reason to stick around. Add another 6 months and more cool stuff that doesn't exist today will be here. I mean this environment is a giant leap ahead of November 2017. So that's my feeling, if you give people 20 different things to do, they're less likely to pack it up if the music stops playing. Or maybe more accurately, the music is less likely to stop playing, or if the music does stop playing, the band is just on a bathroom break, we'll be back in 10 minutes instead of 2 years.

You said "when the defi speculation mania collapses, it will deflate". We had that, that was called September 2020. Defi drew down 50-60% from September-December if memory serves me after running up in what we would consider a summer defi bubble. Then what happened after that few month breather. We kept moving up because projects are live, Elon is tweeting about it, musicians and artists and NBA players are talking about it, its on CNBC and front page in the FT, there's yield to be made, you can take out self repaying loans with Alchemix, you can leverage yield farm with Alpha, new projects inventing new financial products come out every week. People want better than .1% bank apy, and dapps (and capps) are delivering it. It's not white papers anymore. We're not sitting around waiting 2 years for apps and infrastructure to be built to give us a reason to care about crypto, its here now.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not head in the sand, crypto can only go up from here, no more bear markets guy, I understand everything has a cycle, and there will be events that pop up along the way that cause dips and corrections. I just think when the world is onboarding into a new paradigm, as it did with the internet, you reach the event horizon at some point and the previous charts that explain the past don't predict the future anymore. The internet had its bubble, and it popped because nothing was built yet. It came back years later and didn't pop again in the same way because people had a reason to stay, you gave them facebook and google maps and a zillion other things that provided actual use case and value. The same will happen with crypto, and it will happen faster than it did with the internet. People are digital natives now, we have 3 different devices, many of us live in virtual worlds and ascribe real value to digital goods and services, and people are becoming increasingly distrustful of governments and centralized tech companies and are ready to make a move to something better. Crypto will be adopted just as fast as the infrastructure and apps can be built.

"You claim that repeating hype cycles is a pattern that predictably extends into the future". I explicitly state the opposite, maybe you confused something I said with someone else.

I'll break here and respond to the second half of your post next.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-29-2021 , 09:32 AM
"So there will be a normal bull market crash, and afterwards there will still be a bull market instead of a bear market. You are just saying that you don't think that is the top. What do you think the top will be, and when?"


I'm saying the 2-3 year, 80% bear markets are done. There's just way too much stuff to do and ways to make money on your crypto for it to be dead for that long of a period of time, or for it to draw down 80%. People are lining up out the door for 30% dips. I understand its different in a bull market, but if we get some kind of blow off top 6-9 months from now people aren't sitting around waiting for 2 years and 80% with the defi casino and all the opportunities that brings with it buzzing and blinking 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Throw on top of that collectible cards, games, art, social media, physical world item tokenization which is coming very soon, and other things that will catch us all by surprise.

"If that is because they don't get irrationally afraid when they price drops, then they also shouldn't be irrationally caught up in the hype on the way up, leading to a lower top. If a reason for the higher bottom is that their investment strategy is based on a percentage allocation, leading to them buying more when the price drops, that would also suggest that they will be trimming when the price goes up, and therefore also leading to a lower top."

Yes, what you're describing is a lowering volatility market. Less crazy exuberance at the top, less panic selling at the top and on the way down. IE, no more 80% drawdowns. The smart money is allocating now and for the past 6-12 months, but because it takes so much time for most of the big inst's to dip toes, its kind of a smoother extended ride up.

After Saylor's conference a month ago where he gave his exact playbook to 1400 diff inst's, he said it will take most of them months to clear all the hurdles, even being given perfect play by play. To me this suggests less of a blow off top, we're not going from 150k-300k in the final 2 weeks a la 2017, that's just so much money required to move it that much in that period of time. Retail will be the the crazy mania top as always, but they can't move a 3-5t market the same way they did a 200-300b one in 2017.

So I predict 150k-300k as the top for some time, less than 2-3 years, and less drastic of a pull back. If we get to 150k that means the world is adopting crypto, period. If nobody wanted to use this ****, we would never get to 150k in the first place. So if we're adopting crypto, and if it follows every other tech adoption s curve that we've seen like mobile phones, the internet, radios etc, then once (not if, once)we hit the accelerating part of that adoption curve then its logically incongruent to think that the world sells it off 80% for 2.5 years during that accelerating adoption. I don't see how you can have both of those things.

The new investors might be more sofisticated, but they are still quite new to Bitcoin, they don't have the same conviction as people who have been involved with it for many years, and they still measure their investment in USD.

I agree here. The tradfi guys coming over aren't crypto natives, and most won't be coming over because they've seen the light. Over time though crypto tends to convert people. I have faith that a lot of these folks end up adopting more of a crypto ethos, especially if the theory of s curve adoption plays out and crypto doesn't take any massive breathers for a long time. Finance folks don't like parking their money in inflating assets for long periods of time. But who knows what the world and interest rates even look like a year or two from now.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-29-2021 , 11:25 AM
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Originally Posted by sled mobiles
the install metamask in your browser in 2 clicks
This just makes working in the space easier and isnt a use case in and of itself.

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Originally Posted by sled mobiles
move some eth over and in 5 minutes you can find a 15% park for USD
Yields are one of the few positive things I see right now but I'm unconvinced these are sustainable.

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Originally Posted by sled mobiles
you can scroll through and buy art or game items on open sea or a dozen other live NFT sites
People (as in, 'the people') don't want to buy virtual art. Most real people don't even want to buy actual real world art which is why most artists are poor.

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Originally Posted by sled mobiles
you can buy and sell digital land and build on it in a virtual world
With terrible graphics, utility and everything else that goes with it.

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Originally Posted by sled mobiles
you can speculate on every single new coin that pops up on dex's
Definitely not a use case.

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Originally Posted by sled mobiles
you can buy and sell synthetic gold, stocks, whatever, environment
Why not just buy real gold, stocks or whatever? What advantage does holding a synthetic asset have? Again, possibility =/= use case.

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Originally Posted by sled mobiles
Throw on top of that collectible cards, games, art, social media, physical world item tokenization which is coming very soon, and other things that will catch us all by surprise.
An actual real world use case for sure. Tokenizing real estate, as a random example that has been popping up lately, seems huge to me. Smart contracts would reduce the need for lawyers, saving buyers & sellers fees, streamlining the process and improving efficiency. Additionally, its actually quite difficult to transfer fractional shares of RE - more so than most people would think to be honest. Its certainly not as simple as splitting a home in to thirds and disposing with your third as you would like.

But this isn't happening any time 'soon.' Firstly, these crypto assets need to be enforceable which means you need the national land registry (most countries have them to define who owns which piece of land) to accept and recognise these tokenizations. Most of the stuff being transacted right now has no legal enforceability, just like most NFTs do not grant copyright. This is a decade or so off. In order to get there you need lawyers that know and understand this stuff to implement it, politicians that know and understand this stuff to amend legislation and judges that know and understand this stuff to enforce it.

I don't doubt that crypto will change the way things work and exponentially increase in value, but I think you are far too bullish in your thoughts about what it is going to do, or be, in the near future.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-29-2021 , 12:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Good Money
This just makes working in the space easier and isnt a use case in and of itself.



Yields are one of the few positive things I see right now but I'm unconvinced these are sustainable.



People (as in, 'the people') don't want to buy virtual art. Most real people don't even want to buy actual real world art which is why most artists are poor.



With terrible graphics, utility and everything else that goes with it.



Definitely not a use case.



Why not just buy real gold, stocks or whatever? What advantage does holding a synthetic asset have? Again, possibility =/= use case.



An actual real world use case for sure. Tokenizing real estate, as a random example that has been popping up lately, seems huge to me. Smart contracts would reduce the need for lawyers, saving buyers & sellers fees, streamlining the process and improving efficiency. Additionally, its actually quite difficult to transfer fractional shares of RE - more so than most people would think to be honest. Its certainly not as simple as splitting a home in to thirds and disposing with your third as you would like.

But this isn't happening any time 'soon.' Firstly, these crypto assets need to be enforceable which means you need the national land registry (most countries have them to define who owns which piece of land) to accept and recognise these tokenizations. Most of the stuff being transacted right now has no legal enforceability, just like most NFTs do not grant copyright. This is a decade or so off. In order to get there you need lawyers that know and understand this stuff to implement it, politicians that know and understand this stuff to amend legislation and judges that know and understand this stuff to enforce it.

I don't doubt that crypto will change the way things work and exponentially increase in value, but I think you are far too bullish in your thoughts about what it is going to do, or be, in the near future.
Half of these takes are whooosh, the other half are ok boomer.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
03-29-2021 , 01:08 PM
I also appreciate your thought out responses, don't take this any other way.

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Originally Posted by sled mobiles
I appreciate your thoughts here Mat. I guess I see this cycle as clearly distinguished from 4 years ago because of the white paper/ICO, zero apps, hey look crypto kitties mania of 2017 vs the install metamask in your browser in 2 clicks, move some eth over and in 5 minutes you can find a 15% park for USD, you can play tix or wix with simple easy UI, you can scroll through and buy art or game items on open sea or a dozen other live NFT sites, you can buy and sell digital land and build on it in a virtual world, you can provide liq in a hundred different places, you can speculate on every single new coin that pops up on dex's, you can buy and sell synthetic gold, stocks, whatever, environment. Some of this stuff you or others may scoff at, and yes there's a ton of speculation here, but its real activity. People have a reason to stick around. Add another 6 months and more cool stuff that doesn't exist today will be here. I mean this environment is a giant leap ahead of November 2017. So that's my feeling, if you give people 20 different things to do, they're less likely to pack it up if the music stops playing. Or maybe more accurately, the music is less likely to stop playing, or if the music does stop playing, the band is just on a bathroom break, we'll be back in 10 minutes instead of 2 years.
I mostly agree with Good Money on this. You can call me boomer if you want, I'm not , but most money in the world is in the hands of people who grew up in an analog world and don't care too much about these things.

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Originally Posted by sled mobiles
You said "when the defi speculation mania collapses, it will deflate". We had that, that was called September 2020. Defi drew down 50-60% from September-December if memory serves me after running up in what we would consider a summer defi bubble. Then what happened after that few month breather. We kept moving up because projects are live, Elon is tweeting about it, musicians and artists and NBA players are talking about it, its on CNBC and front page in the FT, there's yield to be made, you can take out self repaying loans with Alchemix, you can leverage yield farm with Alpha, new projects inventing new financial products come out every week. People want better than .1% bank apy, and dapps (and capps) are delivering it. It's not white papers anymore. We're not sitting around waiting 2 years for apps and infrastructure to be built to give us a reason to care about crypto, its here now.
We are still in a crypto hype, I'm talking about when that subsides. You seem to think that might not happen, I disagree and think anyone with that view is a bit naive.

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Originally Posted by sled mobiles
Don't get me wrong, I'm not head in the sand, crypto can only go up from here, no more bear markets guy, I understand everything has a cycle, and there will be events that pop up along the way that cause dips and corrections. I just think when the world is onboarding into a new paradigm, as it did with the internet, you reach the event horizon at some point and the previous charts that explain the past don't predict the future anymore. The internet had its bubble, and it popped because nothing was built yet. It came back years later and didn't pop again in the same way because people had a reason to stay, you gave them facebook and google maps and a zillion other things that provided actual use case and value. The same will happen with crypto, and it will happen faster than it did with the internet. People are digital natives now, we have 3 different devices, many of us live in virtual worlds and ascribe real value to digital goods and services, and people are becoming increasingly distrustful of governments and centralized tech companies and are ready to make a move to something better. Crypto will be adopted just as fast as the infrastructure and apps can be built.
People on average are decently digitally capable now, at least if they're handheld by Google, Apple and Microsoft. They are, however, not cryptographically capable. Adoption might go faster than with the Internet, but it's not going to happen overnight and it's not going to be a smooth ride.

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Originally Posted by sled mobiles
"So there will be a normal bull market crash, and afterwards there will still be a bull market instead of a bear market. You are just saying that you don't think that is the top. What do you think the top will be, and when?"


I'm saying the 2-3 year, 80% bear markets are done. There's just way too much stuff to do and ways to make money on your crypto for it to be dead for that long of a period of time, or for it to draw down 80%. People are lining up out the door for 30% dips. I understand its different in a bull market, but if we get some kind of blow off top 6-9 months from now people aren't sitting around waiting for 2 years and 80% with the defi casino and all the opportunities that brings with it buzzing and blinking 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Throw on top of that collectible cards, games, art, social media, physical world item tokenization which is coming very soon, and other things that will catch us all by surprise.
If the large coins draw down 80 %, then the "defi casino" activity will decrease even more. As for the other use cases you bring up, frankly, they are so small that they are pretty irrelevant, at least in the next few years.

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Originally Posted by sled mobiles
"You claim that repeating hype cycles is a pattern that predictably extends into the future". I explicitly state the opposite, maybe you confused something I said with someone else.
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Originally Posted by sled mobiles
"If that is because they don't get irrationally afraid when they price drops, then they also shouldn't be irrationally caught up in the hype on the way up, leading to a lower top. If a reason for the higher bottom is that their investment strategy is based on a percentage allocation, leading to them buying more when the price drops, that would also suggest that they will be trimming when the price goes up, and therefore also leading to a lower top."

Yes, what you're describing is a lowering volatility market. Less crazy exuberance at the top, less panic selling at the top and on the way down. IE, no more 80% drawdowns. The smart money is allocating now and for the past 6-12 months, but because it takes so much time for most of the big inst's to dip toes, its kind of a smoother extended ride up.

After Saylor's conference a month ago where he gave his exact playbook to 1400 diff inst's, he said it will take most of them months to clear all the hurdles, even being given perfect play by play. To me this suggests less of a blow off top, we're not going from 150k-300k in the final 2 weeks a la 2017, that's just so much money required to move it that much in that period of time. Retail will be the the crazy mania top as always, but they can't move a 3-5t market the same way they did a 200-300b one in 2017.

So I predict 150k-300k as the top for some time, less than 2-3 years, and less drastic of a pull back. If we get to 150k that means the world is adopting crypto, period. If nobody wanted to use this ****, we would never get to 150k in the first place. So if we're adopting crypto, and if it follows every other tech adoption s curve that we've seen like mobile phones, the internet, radios etc, then once (not if, once)we hit the accelerating part of that adoption curve then its logically incongruent to think that the world sells it off 80% for 2.5 years during that accelerating adoption. I don't see how you can have both of those things.
So you do base your prediction on the behaviour of previous cycles, you just make adjustment to it based on differences you see. Or how else do you come up with the 150k-300k number? Could it be that you are seeing this as a bigger cycle than the last, but that it will be smoothed out for the reasons you've laid out, and that's why the top will only be about the same percentage increase, but the subsequent bottom will be a lower percentage decrease?
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote

      
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