It's not a bubble when the FED is printing forever. BTC is a store of value at this time, and I think BTC is fairly valued at this price. I would worry a bit if it breaks below 10500 and 9000 but there is a CME gap around that level so I wouldn't be surprised if it dumps to fill it before going back up. I put a stop in at $10970 and will look to rebuy at a lower level because I don't want to lose my profits - I have some buddies that travel up to the USA from Argentina to play poker. A lot of them don't like to keep their value in Argentina peso - so they keep part of it in BTC, and hold a large amount in USD. Look how far the Argentina Peso fell in such a short time. Even Microstrategy stock (MSTR) which has a market cap of 1.5 billion ($150 share price) is keeping $250 million in BTC as they are losing faith in the USD.

Companies like BLOCKFI and CELSIUS have generated millions. BLOCKFI is on track to make over 50M in revenue this year. This space is still very new, with a low market cap. Jeff bezos has the whole BTC market cap in his networth. What happens when one of these billionaires decides to hedge just 1% of their networth into BTC? It's safe, secure, and fungible.

The tech that Tesla is doing is phenomenal. Just research what they are doing. That company can raise as much money as it wants, any investor will give him more money.

Also you should refrain from calling people "morons" just because they disagree with you. You may be very young - who knows, but a lot people in here, especially those that have made a living playing poker or trading are not morons.

How much should bitcoin (or Tesla) go up for each trillion the fed prints? Do you have a formula or a rough guesstimate?

If you want to claim bitcoin will go up in line with inflation, sure, I'm happy to accept that. Now what? So will gold and silver.

Why do you think the fed printing makes bitcoin not a bubble? Non-fundamental bubbles are a function of [(hodlers + incoming dumb money) - sellers]. That's it. The fed barely rates in that other than as a meme to get more incoming dumb money and hodlers to hodl. It has no meaningful fundamental impact on bitcoin beyond inflation.
Why do you believe it's fairly valued at this price? I think it's fairly value at about the illegal economy value - around $1000.

How do we objectively settle our subjective views of where fair value is?
Gamblers keep money in bitcoin because it's a useful way of evading restrictions. I fully agree with its value as use as gray and black money - I argue that is in fact its only fundamental value. But that gets you to $1000 or so, it doesn't get you to the moon that everyone wants.

Bitcoin needs to mainstream to go a lot higher, and there's no path to mainstreaming. There's only a giant ponzi of true believers, and that only gets you so far. At some point you need an actual functioning mainstream product to take it higher; bitcoin doesn't have that and can't have that because it's a broken technology that can't scale to actually run a scaled transaction network, and without that, it can't be a reliable store of value.
Bitcoin isn't safe as a store of value (it can and has dropped 30% in days), nor is it secure (the only thing required to get ownership of someone's bitcoin is to know a string of digits). Ownership of a bulwark company is the definition of safety. As is owning bonds. Bitcoin can't compete with these things for safety or security.

I don't see billionaires mattering to bitcoin's price compared to retail. The exchanges together have hundreds of millions of accounts.
Could you post about this tech in the Tesla thread? I see zero phenomenal tech coming out of Tesla; the robotaxi claims are now proven fraud by Musk's own words (I called them as fraud when he made them back in 2019).

There are plenty of people who are real world or poker competent who are total idiots when it comes to trading and investing. Take Alex Wice. Really smart guy, and he was going to buy Tesla around $250 because he thought Musk had a reasonable chance at Musk's (totally fraudulent, zero chance) claims that Tesla would have Fully Self Driving feature complete by the end of 2019, and a million robotaxis in 2020 pulling in $30 billion/year in profit.

The stock went way up from when he wanted to buy it. If you believe a total fraud, buy the stock and luck into a ponzi/bubble, are you smart or a moron? It's the same for bitcoin bulls.

Bitcoin bull thesis: Bitcoin will replace the USD and Visa and become a major global currency (it has zero chance of doing this) because it's free money and there will be fiat hyperinflation by 2015 with all this QE

Result: Bitcoin goes up not because your hyperinflation thesis or mainstream currency thesis, but because kiddie porn, gambling and drug transaction provide a fundamental base of incoming money, which eventually starts a giant global ponzi wave as the increasing price from the illegal buy-ins gets more and more people interested, and mainstream society FOMO piles in to get in on the returns.

If you predicted the second - one person in this thread did - yeah, you're smart and you earned every cent. If you predicted the first, you're a lucky moron and nothing more.

That's not to say that some people don't have a wisdom of knowing what will be a popular ponzi in future, because they do (who knows the moron mind better than an early-adopter moron?), but many people don't fit into that category. They had an idiot thesis (the same one as the silver bulls did) and got paid off despite the thesis being comically wrong.

Every asset can drop 30% - look at march 2020 or 2008. BTC just moves faster because its market cap is so small - 24/7 trading - and no trading halts. If the stock market didn't halt trading on massive down days, i'm sure the stock market would of crashed 30% in a day as well.

Gold and silver will absolutely go up. It dipped for a bit on Thursday because investors thought they were smart - and were going after the bond market, only to realize shortly after they have been duped, and the price of gold/slv/BTC started rising again. Who wants to hold 10 and 30 year bonds in an inflationary environment. I think the 10 year will outperform the 30 year, but i'm not buying any bonds.

BTC is going up because it's becoming more mainstream. APPs like cash app and robinhood use it. Hedgefunds are just starting to own it. They can't own it directly because of SEC laws - but they can buy that greyscale trust - which is garbage (2% fee which is taking advantage of hedgefunds), but it's their only way to own it.

BTC is not supposed to replace VISA - or be used as day to day transactions. It's a store of value. It is too demanding on the ecosystem to be used as a currency. The system we have now is fine, but BTC should be a hedge against the massive inflation that is coming. Governments have no way out of this but to print.

A few people in this thread seem to be arguing that bitcoin won't see increased adoption, significant improvements in technology, additional use cases, or increase in value... even though it has continuously done exactly that for the past decade?

This is spot on. There’s a lot of money to be lost between the time it becomes clear that something can’t work and the time everyone else realizes it. I don’t think BTC will be an example of this, but it’s an important concept IMO.

You are calling Musk a fraud? The guy sends rockets into space, is creating neurolink to help advance humanity and has produced electric cars, and you think he's the fraud?

Take a look in the mirror dude, you deluded buffoon!

He is a fraud, that's not even in question. That Musk has committed large scale deliberate knowing fraud many times (the latest being claims about autonomous robotaxis) is a settled fact. It's not unusual to be both pioneering/successful and a fraud. Madoff founded the Nasdaq and electronic trading and had a very successful trading firm. He also ran the world's biggest ponzi. Theranos had a genuine blood testing business. She also lied about blood testing tech. Valeant had a large genuine drug business, but fraudulently channel stuffed. Enron had vast energy and utility holdings and merely frauded on the accounting for derivatives. Crazy Eddie actually had a very successful phone business and frauded on the financials.

The big frauds always piggyback off a legitimate business or leverage some existing success.

Bitcoin isn't a fraud, but it basically leverages its success as an illegal/gray market coin while its holders peddle a fantasy of it being a mainstream global currency or widespread store of value. The lower level of success/genuine use provides the base, platform, plausibility, legitimacy, news cycle, meme spread and energy for the higher level fantasy/fraud ponzi that provides most of its market cap. It's how the word works, bro.

Wen next ponzi wave!!!1?

+1

Been out of the crypto game for awhile. What exchanges are popular right now? I see Binance no longer accepts USA customers, and I've never really trusted Bittrex with my $.

Looking for an exchange that also offers a lot of alt coin options.

Musk is a fraud, but Craig Wright is Satoshi!

So what, listen i don't even know about the taxi stuff, but he made claims, is that what you are saying? I didn't know a "claim" was suddenly something set in stone and if you do not meet the deadline, you are now a fraud, a scammer!

I bet if he he had free reign, without all the crap rules and regulations, we'd all be better off. I bet there are so many that oppose his views and actually stand in his way more often than you think!

Craig Wright couldn't prove he is Satoshi in court, yet you believe he is, so are you deluded or what, or just a hypocrite that only uses "evidence", (in your mind) when it suits your narrative?

Regarding your ponzi narrative for btc. For it to be a ponzi, and I think you are already admitting defeat, as you now are changing your tune to "btc isnt a fraud but", a ponzi by definition has it's founders sat at the top waiting to dump on the late comers.

Do you agree that all of those "founders", early birds cashed in when btc ran up to 20k? Except for Satoshi himself, he must be the dumbest ponzi boss ever, right!

So if most of the early birds cashed out, why is btc still a thing, shouldn't it of died off already?

Explain to me in plain English, why banks are getting involved, why big institutions like JP Morgan, have done a complete U-turn and are now diving into cryptos, when just a few years ago Dimon said it was worthless. So many others that have changed their tune since, as well!!!!

Explain why you believe, btc is going to die, when all these big money players have built infrastructure in the tunes of 10's-100's of millions to support Bitcoin and crypto?

So they have built all this stuff, spent all that money because bitcoin is going to die soon?, because its a ponzi?

Do a google search, pretty sure Binance has a US version as well, otherwsie Poloniex, they also have a dex. Poloniex offers quite a few gems, like some of the uniswap stuff.

Kucoin and Okex are Asian but are quite good exchanges as well.

FTX is good but requires kyc, phemex is good, Bybit is really good, phem and bybit don't require kyc, these are more for trading but, you can still buy spot.

When we start trading above 11.8k, which will be very soon, hopefully. But watch that level, as soon as we start trading above it, I think (TS i'm not a fraud, I said, I think) I think bitcoin will do a big wave up, it should stall around 13k for a week and then continue up! It looks like it's coiling right now, making higher lows, looks like very aggresive accumulation before a massive spike up, 17k soon....It's wishful thinking but I have a feeling btc is about to go do 1 of those face melting pumps!

Or, it's not a ponzi and it's moving slower because it is going to have a much more sustained and healthy bull market rather than a quick move up only to collapse into a bear market again, like the last run from 3k to 14k.

85 days consolidation between 8k and 10k. Many more days under. Usually the consolidation last much shorter but then as a result it topped with a euphoria blow off top and then got decimated.

We haven't seen this kind of sustained and drawn out accumulation since 2015/2016. Which kind of makes me think BTC is going to repeat something similar again!

The smart money has been loading up over the last 8 years because of inevitable inflation. You and many others hated for many years and NOW you decide it has upside because of inflation. How narrow sited are you to not have realized that over the past years?

Talk about following the crowd!!! Wait until the Fed actually says they want to increase inflation, THEN jump on board. Way to stay ahead of the game. If you aren't a sheep I dunno who is.

FED saying they wanna increase inflation is like me saying I wanna **** Ariana Grande

which planet are you guys living on, what inflation. It'll be a small miracle to avoid deflationary spiral. FED couldnt hit its targets even before the pandemic ffs.

is this some next level soviet troll post?

what inflation? ok bro!

ok I'm gonna do this once.

FED has no direct mechanism to print money into the economy (yet). Jpow is claiming so, because he needs retail to believe that.

Commercial banks are the ones who are "printing" money by lending it out to the public. The real constraint is however demand for loans. Basically if a lot of people have a good idea for a business and take out a loan, amount of money in the economy increases. However, if banks have noone to lend money to (safely), money is just not getting created.

What FED is doing is using bonds to "print" reserves that banks hold with the FED. Those reserves cannot be used to buy stocks or anything like that (yet, this can change), they can be used for loans to the public only.

Basically FED tries to ensure that the banks are gonna refuse lending to as few people as possible, so whoever wants a loan, gets a loan. Since the economy is ****ed, few people are opening new businesses, money is not getting in the economy.

This is why economists assumed little inflation after QE in 2008 and were proven right.

Now prices rise when people spend money. Saving rate increased, people are sitting at home etc, so why the **** would there be any goddamn inflation?

Jpow is talking about increasing inflation, because he realizes that if people start to expect deflation, the society is ****ed.

What would be truly inflationary is a fiscal stimulus combined with economic recovery. Congress however failed to pass anything for now. Hence low cpi numbers.

You could argue that the inflation manifests itself in asset prices (somehow, I'd love to hear how). I'd argue that the stock market is reacting to the reality of necessarily low IRs in the foreseeable future and that valuations are reasonable given that premise, however I'm not sure and honestly who the **** knows. Part of it is definitely the reality that FAANG are on their way to own the world and current valuations are reasonable, they end up pushing whole SPX up. Obviously certain assets are in a bubble. People are undestandably scared shitless and flock to gold, bitcoin etc (Why they dont just buy guns and cans of beans is beyond me), I think that Robinhood could be blamed for TSLA and NKLA, but..again, I dont know.

Either way some amount of inflation is probably, hopefully, gonna happen once economy recovers and congress passes fiscal stimulus. Historically that was the method to pay off debt (like after WW2). It's not gonna be caused exclusively by FED and there is no reason to not trust FED to handle the situation well once it happens.

I've been listening to Austrian Economists, goldbugs, anarchists etc spew bullshit about inflation for more than a decade at this point and have grown to hate the word. Real economists have been proven right every single time so far and it annoys me that they still don't get the credit.

Lol, look at this guy, hoping for inflation so he gets to spend a higher % of his income on the same goods and services.

Buttt, We NeEd To StImUlAtE ThE EcOnOMy!?!?

Please explain to me how printing more pieces of paper will increase the wealth of a society?

Please explain to me why competitive pressures in production of goods and services shouldn't lead to LOWER prices. Why would I want to spend an extra 10% a year (chapwood index for real inflation rates btw) on everyday goods instead of these goods getting cheaper each year. I would love to see deflation!

Luckily Bitcoin gives me the opportunity to have deflationary prices. I always think twice before spending my hard earned and scarce sats. While the rest of the world is trying to outrun the massive amount of stimulus central banks have done.

Wages rise with inflation.

Do you really need me to explain why is it bad when people don't spend money?
When people trying to start a new business need to deal with deflation as well as all the other regular risks?
Why should people get richer by doing nothing, just holding cash? Not investing, not helping the economy, just holding cash?

Seriously? Go read up on the Great Depression, please. Your way of thinking caused a whole lot of misery back then.

If somebody starts a business and nobody is interested in buying their product then they're not adding enough value. Simple as that. There's no need to complicate this more than it needs to be.

If people aren't willing to spend money on certain products and rather save their money to protect against uncertainty, or spend it on other products then that's totally fine. These businesses will go out of business, they have failed in fulfilling consumer's demands.

There's absolutely no need to increase the supply of money, make savings worth less (worthless) and force people to spend. There's no amount of central planning possible to make these type of decisions compared to every individual deciding for themselves.

Krax dont waste your time. You can type pages of phd level economics and most of BFI will learn nothing, by choice.

Cooltimer,
well I have good and bad news for you buddy. Bad news is that you are wrong. It's fine, most people are almost always wrong in stuff they have not studied.

Good news is that it does not matter and you get to enjoy the benefits of modern monetary econ anyway.


Pinkmann
yeah I'm gone. At times I can't help myself, I tend to lurk here, write a long post explaining why people are wrong and then delete it shortly after.

I Can't tell if you're trolling or you're just really ****ing stupid.