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05-27-2020 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
Right. So now what's to stop Treasury from crossing out North Korea on that advisory, and replacing it with China?
Ur not really asking the question right to understand bitcoin's advantage (imo). china is a member of the IMF, BIS, BRICS etc. They have payment channels where they can use digital dollars etc and don't need to find ways of skirting sanctions. They are a great participator in the global economy.

North Korea doesn't have this luxury. Digital dollars don't work for north korea where physical dollars could in this sense. But bitcoin also works as cash dollars would with the benefit that they are cheaper to secure and transport and are censorship resistance.
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05-27-2020 , 02:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Shuffle
You say this like it's some kind of permanent status.

White House threatens China with sanctions over Hong Kong
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/27/pomp...rom-china.html

Imagine what would happen if China invaded Taiwan. What if they set up a naval blockade around the South China Sea?
What I have explained is simple enough I think (ie the want for cash dollars versus "digital"). What you are saying now no longer speaks to the point you made.
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05-27-2020 , 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Shuffle
How so? I stated that, in all likelihood, bitcoin was created by a Chinese government agency, and its purpose is to launder money. It's really not that hard to understand.
Can you replace "launder" with a description of the action you mean to imply and "money" with the type of money you mean (ie digital versus cash and who the central issuer of the money is) so I can better understand you?
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05-27-2020 , 04:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
China's financial system is highly leveraged to USD. International payments are overwhelmingly settled in USD. Like anyone else, China needs dollars, but that subjects them to the discretion of Washington. It's pretty hard to have hegemony and be any kind of power in the world if your banker can always cut you off (look at what the ECB did to Italy and Greece).

China has many different long-term strategic approaches to securing its financing, including those that are designed to coerce the United States into not imposing sanctions in the first place.

But bitcoin can certainly be used to illicitly transfer USD, even if Washington decided to shut China out.
Is leveraged the right word here?

And yes digital dollars dont serve this end because they are controlled by a third party and not censorship resitant.

But how do u tansfer usd with bitcoin? this is a nonsensical statement right?
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05-28-2020 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
How so? I stated that, in all likelihood, bitcoin was created by a Chinese government agency, and its purpose is to launder money. It's really not that hard to understand.
Are you basing this on anything other than that with 11 years of hindsight it would make sense for China to develop something that turned out the way Bitcoin did? Because I don't know a single fact that points to China being in any way involved in the creation of Bitcoin, and a lot of things that point to the contrary.
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05-28-2020 , 07:33 PM
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Originally Posted by housenuts
Quote:
"During the quarter, Grayscale also saw average weekly investment into its trust reach $29.9 million — comprising an 800% gain year-over-year."
Well I guess that debunks Tooth's idiotic argument about the market for buyers being dried up because the barber that bought $200 in December 2017 was never coming back.
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05-28-2020 , 07:58 PM
Lololol
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05-28-2020 , 08:09 PM
People launder money to hide the source from their government. The idea of a government laundering money makes no sense.
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05-29-2020 , 10:31 AM
Why would the Chinese government launder money with bitcoin? BTC is like $200billion market cap, are you having a laugh?

Just 1 bank last year laundered over $500 billion iirc and they didn't even go to jail. At this point it seems pretty obv who the real criminals are, they do it out in the open and simply pay a fine and then continue to do it again!
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05-29-2020 , 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Well I guess that debunks Tooth's idiotic argument about the market for buyers being dried up because the barber that bought $200 in December 2017 was never coming back.
Yeah, I'm not seeing how it debunks it. First of all, it was Korean grandmas mortaging their house and young working people maxing out their credit cards to buy bitcoin that drove the speculation frenzy, not barbers punting $200. The average Korean got in for $5000 during the 2017 bubble, and 30% of the country speculated. That ponzi frenzy just isn't happening again for two reasons:

- Because it hasn't recently appreciated 1000%, and you don't get the ponzi frenzy of headline news and intense excitement/FOMO without massive recent appreciation that makes even sane people decide they're missing out.

- Because the amount of money required to even get 100% appreciation from here is equal to all the ponzi money from 2017. You need multiples of last run's fresh blood to start piling in to get another moon, but the inflowing required to get those multiples is too high.

- Because some of the dumb ponzi money got burned hard and won't be back. Ponzis are a bit like corona that way.

As for inflows, which should be huge into GBTC this quarter, all asset classes have been bought up hard. Stocks have soared on a retail pile in since lockdown, with 10 million+ new brokerage accounts. Every asset class is being bought as bored at-home professionals are trying their hands at trading and stock for the first time. As poorer people are spending their stimulus checks on Robinhood to speculate. Etc.

In a recession bitcoin sells off, likely to very deep lows. It's an unstable speculative asset that does nothing uniquely worthwhile for non-illegal purposes.
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05-29-2020 , 06:19 PM
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
In a recession bitcoin sells off, likely to very deep lows. It's an unstable speculative asset that does nothing uniquely worthwhile for non-illegal purposes.
By illegal here are you referring to national laws? You can't mean international sanctions and still say its nothing uniquely worth while right? Being able to skirt international sanctions would be uniquely worthwhile for many nations...especially that there is no scaling ceiling on the transferable value and the cost for that and time for settlement is comparatively drastically lower than any other option (ie secretly transporting gold)
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05-29-2020 , 08:54 PM
Somehow I don't think it's a great idea arguing that sanction evasion for size (in a fully trackable public ledger) is a bull case for bitcoin.
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05-29-2020 , 09:15 PM
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Somehow I don't think it's a great idea arguing that sanction evasion for size (in a fully trackable public ledger) is a bull case for bitcoin.
Fully trackable public ledger is only good for criminal activity
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05-30-2020 , 04:27 AM
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Originally Posted by housenuts
Fully trackable public ledger is only good for criminal activity
Got him! Hopefully he sees just how much full of **** he is!
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05-31-2020 , 10:15 PM
JPM gonna take Coinbase public. Hmmm...
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06-01-2020 , 12:42 PM
https://static.bitwiseinvestments.co...-Portfolio.pdf

Fascinating white paper by a guy who used to educate institutional investors about ETF's before they became known and popular. He's now doing the same with Bitcoin.

Cliffs that surprised me:

-adding a small allocation of bitcoin to a traditional 60/40 portfolio actually has lower or negligible effects on overall volatility and max drawdown, while drastically improving the sharpe ratio

-even if you added 2.5% BTC allocation on Dec 16th, 2017 and held through March 31, 2020, it would have slightly beat the traditional portfolio in cumulative return and sharpe ratio. That's with bitcoin being down 66.6%. Think about that!
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06-01-2020 , 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted by IntheNow
https://static.bitwiseinvestments.co...-Portfolio.pdf

Fascinating white paper by a guy who used to educate institutional investors about ETF's before they became known and popular. He's now doing the same with Bitcoin.

Cliffs that surprised me:

-adding a small allocation of bitcoin to a traditional 60/40 portfolio actually has lower or negligible effects on overall volatility and max drawdown, while drastically improving the sharpe ratio

-even if you added 2.5% BTC allocation on Dec 16th, 2017 and held through March 31, 2020, it would have slightly beat the traditional portfolio in cumulative return and sharpe ratio. That's with bitcoin being down 66.6%. Think about that!
I didn't read past the executive summary, but this seems like nonsense. If you constantly rebalance an asset that has been ranging amazingly, you are obviously going to have a better portfolio. You are buying low and selling high. This includes the scenario where you buy on Dec 16, 2017. You buy more at a better price, sell more at a higher price, and it ends up being good.
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06-01-2020 , 04:51 PM
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Originally Posted by arjun13
I didn't read past the executive summary, but this seems like nonsense. If you constantly rebalance an asset that has been ranging amazingly, you are obviously going to have a better portfolio. You are buying low and selling high. This includes the scenario where you buy on Dec 16, 2017. You buy more at a better price, sell more at a higher price, and it ends up being good.
It was rebalanced quarterly. Yes, bitcoin's volatile and noncorrelated properties are what achieve this. That's the argument for why it should at least be a small portion of every portfolio.

Why does it seem like nonsense?
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06-01-2020 , 05:11 PM
Some claim it's not even an asset...
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06-01-2020 , 06:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Somehow I don't think it's a great idea arguing that sanction evasion for size (in a fully trackable public ledger) is a bull case for bitcoin.
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
Fully trackable public ledger is only good for criminal activity
You can track it but you can stop it from being used. It will just take time for the market cap to grow to the point where its useful to settle between nations. Thats a bull case for sure and there is no scaling limit in this regard. Doesn't matter that everyone can see the transactions.
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06-01-2020 , 06:53 PM
Gov't agencies have said they'd prefer criminals use bitcoin than cash.
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06-01-2020 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
Gov't agencies have said they'd prefer criminals use bitcoin than cash.
yes of course. But its different when its a nation that wants to transfer value that would otherwise be physically blocked by force.
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06-01-2020 , 08:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
First of all, it was Korean grandmas mortaging their house and young working people maxing out their credit cards to buy bitcoin that drove the speculation frenzy, not barbers punting $200. The average Korean got in for $5000 during the 2017 bubble, and 30% of the country speculated.
LMAO. In tight with the koreans eh? You should be a creative writer. You can pull some very off the wall **** out of your ass.

There is 0% chance you have any god damn idea who was buying what let alone what koreans were doing. I think your losing it. You need a break from the computer.
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06-01-2020 , 09:23 PM
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Originally Posted by jbouton
yes of course. But its different when its a nation that wants to transfer value that would otherwise be physically blocked by force.
What do you think they can get in exchange for this value that can't be blocked by force?


"Gosh darn it. Those pesky North Koreans paid bitcoin for that nuclear material. What will we ever do?"
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