Tooth, your thoughts on bitcoin in a recession or a major debt crisis in say europe or munis/provincials in china.

there are lots of things I can get cheaper in Canada...US would be cheaper still. For instance meat in nepal is 3x what i pay at home.

when it comes to venezuela...if a currency tanks then imports become expensive so this is normal but temporary...

we had this in canada...our currency became very strong due to oil, then the oil crashed.....there was a 6 month period where food was expensive...now we are buying canadian beef at very good prices.

its lovely and complicated

So if currency prices stayed stable across all countries because they all used the same currency, this wouldn't happen?

Lot of references in here to "momentum" by people who say TA is voodoo nonsense. Can't have it both ways. Momentum is 100% pure TA.

If BTC went down, let's say past 5k. Do you seriously think people wouldn't snatch it up? BTC will never go that low again. The price has already stabilized around 6k-6500 even with the overall crypto market cap being obliterated.

I've previously said that TA exists and is useful in manipulated markets and markets with gigantic flows relative to participants (i.e. commodities). The literature is pretty clear. TA is bull****/non-existent in normal US equities but sometimes applies to markets like China and corn futures.

You'll obviously get momentum effects in a ramping ponzi. You get something similar in fraud penny stocks. You also get the same in things like viral videos.

That's the whole point of the paper - the paper shows that adoption is not related to a store of value or transactions or the bitcoin economy but rather to ponzi/speculation. In other words, I'm right and the bulls are wrong about what the price means, according to this paper. This is tulips and not bitcoin utility, at least for large majority of the price.

It exists in hindsight. If you could predict it before it happens, nobody would ever have to get a job. You see those Hedge Fund clowns take the biggest losses of all time by trying to get involved in momentum situations.

The math simply doesn't back it up. It is kind of like search engine SEO companies. If you have 1,000 search engine optimization companies who email 1,000 companies about their "skills", and each one is hired by a different company in the same industry, which ones will get be on the first few pages of Google? They cannot all achieve the tops spots. As someone once said, only the top 5th can finish in the top 20 percent.

I don't really have an opinion on this either way. The hypothetical in that post wasn't a prediction. The entire point was that evidence in the study that historical price trends have been driven by speculation isn't necessarily evidence supporting a prediction about the future.

Bitmain IPO is hilarious.
In the past few days it has been confirmed Bitmain own 10% of active BCH.
It gives a new look on their "profits".

Never
All kinds of such predictions have been made about gold and look where it's now. And as pointless as gold is (compared to its market cap), it's still much more useful than BTC.

This guy borrower around 95k euro to buy crypto

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurre...reddit-android

"Emirates Islamic Account"?

Good job to the guys who sold at $17K+, this is one the guys holding the bag for you. He should have read his Koran (no gambling)...although a lot of the poor end stage fish actually believed that Bitcoin was an "investment" thanks to the loons.

No, it is a predictive term by definition and it either exists in market price movements or it does not. Nothing you see in hindsight can be called momentum unless you believe it foreshadowed the price movement that followed. Any analyst who uses this term believes that market psychology is somewhat predictive and that fear & greed tend to be contagious, and manifest in price movement.

To that extent at least, they believe TA is valid.

The "Buttcoin" reddit also has this: https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/co...a_true_genius/

Juk

Someone has a crystal ball. What else does it predict?

Just checked my coinbase for the first time a while... Wew ladz. **** is rough. Haven't followed the thread either so I hope everyone is doing alright in the grand scheme of things

The BTC trends that I researched have pinpointed it pretty closely. So If you want a prediction, the model I looked at says 100k around 2020/end of 2019. It isn't a crystal ball but so far it has been pretty accurate. My head might explode if it actually gets the 100k figure right. The model I follow was correct about 10k in 2017, not even sure how they could have known that but whatever we just have to wait and see what happens.

I might argue that although crypto is down, BTC adoption is upward trending.

How is 100k even possible? We just get 5x the craziness that led to ~20k? What price is sustainable long term? How plausible is a scenario where an alt eats BTC's lunch?

You realize it was 70 cents once right? How is a 20x possible? It only 1000xed before.

People truly cannot wrap their mind around exponential growth.

Exponential growth from nothing is easy to grasp. We already had world new pushing fomo to the max and it peaked at 20k. Where does that new exponential growth come from

Almost all bitcoin volume is speculators trying to sell to the greater fool, and some HODL idiots. It will only legit go up once it gets some kind of practical usage.

This doesn't answer any of my questions.

Getting from 70c to $70 requires a small percentage of the world's losers to use it to buy drugs, etc and mindshare of 0.01% of the world's comparatively wealthy population.

Getting it from $30 to $1000 required a speculative frenzy involving maybe 1% of the world's comparatively wealthy and mindshare of a few percent of the population.

Getting it from $250 to $17K (and then back to $6K) required bitcoin being a household name, being featured regularly on the news, investment funds buying in, people maxing out credit cards and mortgages, and perhaps 40% of population having heard of bitcoin. Basically, it swallowed up most of the low hanging fruit of gambling losers and rich Asians and non-tech-savvy olds who want to jump on the ponzi, and hundreds of thousands of people signing up every day to exchanges.

This is the fun bit where you get to extrapolate exponentially:

Getting from $6K to $100k will require ___% of the comparatively wealth population having heard of bitcoin and a population of losers ___x bigger than the last bubble and _,___,__ signups/day at exchanges.

Yes, that's why toe is the size of the universe.

Everyone here understands exponential growth (well, all the bears anyway). The question implied in his is basically wondering if we've run into the limits of the moist, dense nutrient source (dumbasses and gambling addicts and Asians wanting to go on a ponzi ride and willing to max out their credit), or if there is truly a 5x possible on the frenzy where hundreds of thousands of people a day were signing up for exchanges.

You literally can't ****ing help yourself, can you?

It's the people who can't grasp that going from 100k to 100M users is significantly easier than going from 100M to 100B users who truly don't understand exponential growth