Hilarious that you think I am the one cherry picking timeframes. Bitcoin is up for every timeframe you can pick to present with the exception of the last 4 months or so after a 2000% runup in the month immediately preceding it.

The drop in price is the natural result of having a 2000% runup in a month, not some sign that BTC and crypto is doomed.

nope, it sucked

Still looking for a site to buy some long-term (2+ years) BTC puts. Let me know if any of you all hear anything.

BTC going to 3k: https://twitter.com/SwenLink/status/968875524008357889

This guy has been calling every move. And he's not a permabear. He thinks 3k in June then to 100k a year later.

Another good article: https://medium.com/@super.crypto1/4t...y-c53de65c166a

Blatant manipulation discovered on OKEK: https://twitter.com/Super_Crypto/sta...97507960836097

It's a club...and you ain't in it. Keep hodling and get rekt or figure out "their" game.

lol.. Do people understand the sell pressure exerted by block rewards? 1.8k newly created BTC sold into the market daily plus the remaining Gox coins. Do the math

For all the HODLers out there who are in distress:



Stay strong ye Hodlers. The sun rises everyday and so does the MOOOOOOooooooon.

It is so strange that people admitting 18k was a huge bubble and that it can easily drop to 3k are then not soon after that talking about 100k. I will be surprised if we hit 20k this year again although it would be possible. 100k is not going to happen.

Still hodling after all of these years

Happy Easter to those that thought the limit of BTC price was $1250 or so!

Post from when BTC was $250:

Which was it closer to, a 5 bagger or a 100 bagger?
I agree it could all be a bubble or whatever, but if you want to select stuff that makes other look stupid, there is more than enough ammo you have put out there for others.

Dude, are you impaired? I didn't select anything. I have two posts in 6 months - one to wish the HODLers a Merry Christmas, and one to wish them a Happy Easter. You must be feeling like a righteous tard for not selling at $20K if season's greetings get you upset.

By the way, my record on Bitcoin is excellent. I called it a strong buy at $250, twice. That was one of the best calls in this thread. Name another person who did that? Even the bulls were despairing back down at $250, because they're all stupid and bad at trading. "Over $1000" means it's very very likely to make new highs (past the last time high, which was around $1000), not that you should sell it at that point. The entire thesis was that $250 was an illegal economy base, thus you could go long with little risk:
And that was spot on. The rest is me speculating about the size of the coming ponzi long before said ponzi, which was underestimated, but it's not an error without a recommendation to sell.

If calling it a strong buy when it was a strong buy makes me look stupid, I suspect a fair amount of the bulls in this thread who were piling at $10K+ or holding at $20K would love my kind of stupid.

By the way, I didn't call for a short until it hit $6000, for a reason (I'm an excellent trader). And reversed it at $6500 when the CME news came out, which I called "very bulllish". Then called it short again at the very top for another 70%:

December 15th as it hit $20,000
In my posted recommendations I've crushed trading bitcoin - captured the whole 75 bagger up and then another 70% back down, for a 120 bagger. You could not have done better from the point when I first entered the thread.

Did I think it would run as hard as it has, up to $20K? Nope.

Still. Who's the bigger dickhead?

- The guy who called it a strong buy at $250 despite knowing it's a long term zero, but underestimated the size of the ponzi?
- The people who held or bought at $20,000, losing 70% of their gains, and even drank the koolaid buying more, urged on by a lot of the losers in this thread, many of which are now underwater?

My final remaning prediction is that Bitcoin will be under $1000 within 2 years. I'll come to gloat when that happens and you've all lost your money HODLing because you can't think or trade well.

Again, I haven't quoted or disparaged anyone until your post. If making minimum 500% on your recommendations is "stupid", I'm the God of Stupid imo.

I'll be back to wish the HOLDers a Merry Christmas, or to gloat when it hits $1000. I'm not sure which will come first, but both are certain.

If my specific season greeting to you upset you then my apologies!

Didn't expect to trigger such a long response or self defence of being a self proclaimed excellent trader.

Congrats on the 75 bagger up, didn't realise you changed your mind from the around 5bagger being possible but around 100bagger not being possible.

I agree theres a good chance we'll see btc hit $1k, theres also a good chance we'll see $15k as well. Hopefully there will be less gloating regardless of which way it goes!

I also don't understand how you can judge who is the bigger dickhead just from the two choices you listed.

The guy who called it a strong buy at $250 despite knowing it's a long term zero can easily be a complete dickhead who chooses to enjoy bragging about past successes and trolling/gaining pleasure from others who may have lost money.
Whilst the other person who held and lost 70% of their gains from $20,000 may be a fine fellow or lady who just sits their quietly on their losses, not aiming any ill wishes on anyone.

I know out of the two who I'd say the bigger dickhead is, but people value different qualities differently, and there is a lack of information to make a logical conclusion as to who the dickhead is. We all have different definitions of a dickhead regardless.

My post was literally happy Easter and nothing else. Yours was a claim I was "selecting stuff to make other people look stupid", which I wasn't and in fact have never done. Weird projection there, bro.

Self proclamation is not needed. Reality proclaims me as an excellent Bitcoin trader. My recommendations on when to buy and sell have crushed Bitcoin.

We never hit a 100 bagger.

Bubbles have a life of their own. Once in them, you ride them up. My buy and sell recommendations say everything there is to say. Underestimating the size of a ponzi isn't a fail. Selling or buying at the wrong time (or not selling or buying) is.
Ok. So what's your recommendation? Put your balls out there. Is Bitcoin a weak buy, a strong buy, or a sell here?
It's not really about gaining pleasure. It's a teaching moment. Price gains don't validate your ****tard thesis that Bitcoin is going to take over fiat (it's not) or that it has a long term future (it doesn't). All I'm asking is that people look at things rationally. The run to $20K (or even to $5K before that) was a pure ponzi as news of Bitcoin spread like a global chain letter, and mom and pop investors bought in at $5, $10, $15, $20K, partly on the breathless recommendations of the losers in this thread. Vast sums of money have been lost as a result, from people who could ill afford to lose them but were convinced by the ponzi-pumping people in this thread. And for no gain. Nothing is made better by Bitcoin. Nothing is gained. It's as destructive and pointless as a chain letter. Bitcoin is actually a rather large net negative, as it enables child porn and gambling and other illegal and destructive activities.

I have a similar hatred of penny stock pumpers. The manipulators and insiders and early holders get rich, the dumb money loses out.

We had a guy in this forum ask if he should quit university to trade crypto. The lure of easy ponzi money is disruptive and destructive.
If you pump bitcoin with HODL Moon $1 trillion $100K by end of year (like NooseKnots), then you're scum. Real people lose real money they can't afford to lose. Tens of thousands have taken mortgages and maxed credit cards to buy in at >$10K. There is nothing good here - bitcoin is a zero sum ponzi (the ponzi elements comes from the early buyers pumping the certainty of higher returns) and waste of everyone's time.
You must really feel stupid for drinking the koolaid at $20K. I can feel the hurt coming out of your posts, bro. Let us know when you sell.

Given the choices listed, you. It's you.

In your happy easter hodlers post, you quoted your happy xmas post, which at the time provoked a reaction from people. Meaning a net negative happiness on the world, so you can claim all you want about it not being a snarky comment, but look at the response received the last time. Maybe its just coincidental timing?

I'm glad that you have had success in trading bitcoin, and I wish that everyone could have done. Its not nice seeing people being down tonnes of money, weather they bought into the hype/bubble when it was all over most tv channels. Also I can completely support you saying its a teaching moment about hype cycles etc, but I don't see why it would be needed to call someone a dickhead who bought into the hype and is already down a lot of money. They're already going to be hurting. Hopefully they will have learnt some stuff, and more constructive criticism can be helpful.

And no it wasn't a 100 bagger from your post, it was what an 80 bagger, when you theorised it was likely a 5 bagger. Yes getting a 5 bagger was a great call at the time, but that was where you thought it would stop, but coincidentally you apparently rode it to a 75bagger despite stating a 5 bagger range was more the max possible and 100 wasnt.

Also agree when I read that guy ask about dropping out of university to trade cryptos was the equivelant of the stock market taxi guy story, and not good to read at all.

I sold probably my most amount of btc at like $300 fwiw, and now hold only a couple, and they are more collectible sets than anything.

Dude, you're a moron. He called something a likely five bagger when it had been taking a dump for years. That means something like buy and reevaluate if/when it approaches that point, not buy and sell if and when it hits no matter what the market conditions.

The reality is he's made far better calls than any of the "duhhh HODL I don't know anything about trading but I'm a bitcoin Lambo mooner maximalist" crew that you're a proud member of.

I'm not a member of that HODL crew. But I don't look down on it.
I'm just going off whats been documented on this thread. That it will collapse after a five bagger isn't the greatest call since it actually went 75 times. So if he'd stuck to what he thought then you'd assume he would have lost more (since if you think it will collapse after 5 times it makes sense to short or at least dump right?

No, only a moron would think it makes sense to plan to trigger a specific trade after a 400% gain on an unspecified schedule without reevaluating. He certainly wasn't advocating that.

If smart traders such as toothsayer have such a long term bear prediction on the long term price and outcome of bitcoin I'd appreciate if they could express why then they feel so many smart developers and creators are putting such an effort into the space of crypto/bitcoin.

Obviously there is/was a lot of short term money to be gained for them but it feels off that so many smart individuals would dedicate such effort over the sole greed of money. Some must believe in it's potential to change the way things are in the world. Is it that you feel they are naive in their thinking that the blockchain/their project will change the world? or that it's more like being blindfolded and spun around and throwing darts at a dart board and that some projects will be revolutionary but most will fail?

I watched joey ingram's podcast with jmo and he spoke about what I felt accurately illustrated why some projects such as the coinpoker modeled crypto coin might be less successful but then I also thought he made a really interesting point when he mentioned that one of the major reasons he believes in the future for crypto was because of all the very intelligent people he came across while exploring the space that are investing most of their time into enhancing it.

I've never bought or sold bitcoin. I do find stuff interesting to analyze. I look for zero risk, high return spots. Bitcoin long at $250 was one such spot hence the strong buy, because the illegal economy was a floor. Bitcoin at $20K short was another, hence the "good short", because the pyramid money was reaching saturation.

Bitcoin here isn't a good buy.

I'll gladly admit to being wrong on the size of the bubble - I would have bet against it reaching $20K, but not at huge odds, maybe 20:1. I wouldn't have bet again it hitting $3K though.

You got to fundamentally analyze this stuff, not get crazy about price swings. The only real fundamentals for bitcoin are the illegal economy and the number and rate of entry into the pyramid scheme. It appears that Bitcoin is seriously ****ed up, possibly manipulated, because a tiny amount of money can move it +-10% in minutes. The actual liquid market cap price is probably around $500 - $1000 right now. The rest is a tiny amount of liquidity driven by pyramid dynamics and probably manipulation - the same thing happened with Mt Gox bots which drove it up to $1000 before crashing.

As for the pyramid, Coinbase signups are a good indication of that - once they were signing up 100K/day, you know the pyramid is going to peak within an order of magnitude. Because they're not signing up 5 million/day, and bitcoin has no use case apart from illegality, which means its price above the illegal economy is determined by net enthusiastic flows into the pyramid and not much else.
Congratulations, I guess this means you were in early (single/double digits) and made a ton. If so, good on you. I don't think Bitcoin was immoral at $300...you were selling to an in-crowd. If you sold at $10K, (or now), your money is basically pyramid/ponzi scheme returns, and was some grandmas loss. I'm not too thrilled with making money off other people's misery, and am glad I never got involved.

Well, a lot of these guys are selling shovels and getting rich off it. A good chunk were also in early.

As for the rest, there are 24 million github programmers working for free. There are tens of thousands of smart people spending their time porting old DOS games, making expansion packs, programming characters in Second Life. Are they doing that to change the world?

People find it interesting, politically desirable, hate the banks/centralization/Goldman Sachs, and get social validation and a sense of community out of it.

How many tens of millions in the 20th century put blood and sweat and money and murder into the communist projects, in the hope of a) increasing the amount of justice in the world and sticking it to the capitalist exploiters and b) making life better for the poor? How did that turn out?

People are ****wits who always want to change the world, and decide to do it via their particular ism or revoluationary idea they get attached to. They then form self reinforcing communities with their own groupthinks. It doesn't' mean anything and it's not a barometer of the cogency of the idea.

There were tons of geniuses and good people behind Nazism and Stalinism and all the other isms too who dedicated their lives to those causes. Closer to 2p2, how many genius anarcocapitalists have you met? These very smart guys (and many of them were very smart) argued black and blue in 2010 that hyperinflation was about to happen, so buy gold and silver! In fact, the silver thread is a pretty good mirror of this thread

The Austrian economists are geniuses too, original thinkers who created clear mental models that were evidence backed and highly compelling - and wrong. They spent their lives working on and promoting their theories.

What smart people do isn't that interesting or compelling to me. They'll always work on the cool stuff with a potential for profit. Why would you work on bank security or search algorithms when you can belong to a coin startup and have the potential for riches, better pay, and feel like you're changing the world?
Decentralized money seems permanently flawed to me. It will always be more expensive than centralized money and it can't compete with fiat for stability (regardless of the thousand other arguments, floating currencies for one means that price stability is impossible in Bitcoin), so what good is it apart from an illegal currency? People argue it could be a store of value, but if it's not a viable currency it dies eventually, replaced by something that is a viable digital currency.

Are there really that many smart developers and creators in the space? I have a software background and know a lot of developers and zero of the developers/comp sci people I knew before crypto are in crypto now. The only people I knew before crypto that are now working in crypto are former professional gamblers and one finance guy.

I'm actually surprised at how few developers jumped into the space with all the easy ICO money in 2017.

Based on twitter and hearing various old school crypto devs and influencers speak in various contexts I'm actually very unimpressed with the crypto community. Sure, there's some smart people, but for every smart guy there's 10 dummies with influence who the community has deemed intelligent just cuz they got into crypto early.

Why do you assume every mined coin gets sold? Why do you assume all remaining Gox coins will be sold?

Remember when I told all of you to buy Polymath at $1.18? Well... yeeaaaahhh, hopefully nobody listened to me then because it is at $0.34.

Hey, guys, Polymath is only $0.34. You all should buy some.


All of the hype seems to have died down from crypto. I worry that this is the end and it will slowly dwindle down to nothing. All the bitcoin people say "look at the history! It has done this before!" There is one thing that is different this time around. Bitcoin has hit mainstream. Everybody knows what bitcoin is now. In the past, it has had room for more exposure. Now that everyone knows what Bitcoin is, it may be hard for it to go up again.

On the other hand, there is still a lot that can happen in the crypto world. Who knows if another big project like Silk Road will be launched. Lightning network is supposedly happening and who knows how big that will become in the future.

There is still a lot of uncertainty and it is hard to predict what will happen.

I live by this quote in the investing world:

The current price of a certain investment can affect your thinking and influence an inexperienced person into making a bad decision. Some people like TS are very good traders and know when to buy, sell, and all that good stuff. I, on the other hand, know very little about trading and about investing in general. I do some things for experimental purposes, but for the most part I buy and hold for long term potential.

I hate stop loss, because it seems like the loss already happened. I think the biggest struggle for me is knowing when to get out of an investment. Do I desire to exit, because the market has changed or because I'm being influenced by sell pressure. This is quite a mind puzzle and I definitely want to make the best decision possible.

Everyone involved with bitcoin should ask themselves this question:

"Am I holding onto bitcoin because I believe in its potential, or am I holding onto bitcoin because I imagined a future and desperately want it to come true?"

I worry that there are less and less places where I can spend bitcoin/crypto. Last year I used my bitcoins to buy games on Steam regularly. Today I tried to use bitcoins to pay for humble bundle and it's no longer accepted there either. It seems like every couple of weeks, some new merchant stops accepting Bitcoin.