I'd like to see spy go back to the 410 level where it hung out for an hour after Powell before all the buyers stepped back and let it puke. VIX retracement at least halfway down that daily candle seems reasonable too.
I don't know what that does for btc/eth. I doubt they outperform ES recovery. Both should bleed against stocks until a new narrative forms. BTC has failed every narrative its ever had at this point. It's not a store of value, no companies want it on the balance sheet, it's not used for payments.
ETH is still too good at ***** over the plebes, and without them ETH has no on-chain activity. That will be short-lived, but for now the ETH BTC ratio is due for some retracement too.
I also don't see how anyone can do anything but day trade until next pmi. Maybe swing trade short until then but that seems greedy.
Also day trading should be massively -ev for any trend following strategy. There's too much tilt out there right now and so many big accounts just looking for ways to get liq'd by big crab moves. I'm watching some accounts I follow on GMX and even the biggest winners are finding the stupidest ways to blow themselves up. Lots of tilt.
This one is truly special. He even waited until after market had a chance to digest Powell before trying to play the mean reversion, then added on until position was worth 20 mil on an account he never really did more than 1.5 mil on all month.
https://www.gmx.house/arbitrum/accou...86da9bab226709
Last edited by SkeezinIt; 08-27-2022 at 09:23 PM.