Just curious, do you view cryptos as a scam currency or a scam technology?

Meh, I like to read and engage all different viewpoints, even if they have on massive blinders.

What I don’t appreciate is someone saying I should invest everything I can, have it go to zero and get what I deserve, and then possibly become suicidal.

I’m not worried about that happening to me, even if it’s a super disrespectful thing to say, but it’s definitely happened to others.

My viewpoint is actually the opposite. If he’s so skeptical of BTC, why is he not also skeptical of the stock market? There is no guarantee it keeps working the same way.

The BTC sample size is obviously super small, but we are at 10% of something he speaks of as a guarantee.

I personally like to see crypto activity be decoupled from the stock market.

Probably because stocks reflect real companies with products and services they generate revenue from, unlike bitcoin where price is always money in - fees = money out.

This is a terrible logic btw, stock market is manipulated = bitcoin good, inflation bad = bitcoin good, governments corruped = bitcoin good. No, they can all be bad at the same time, it’s not mutually exclusive.

Also lol @ crypto crashing would bring the whole world down. If it all disappeared over night, nobody but people sucked into it would give a ****.

Scam currency and it is the greater fool theory. It WILL end badly.

There is some really good and interesting technology regarding the blockchain.

You seem to be enjoying what you think is the end of the world, but these predictions are far-fetched at best.

Let's just look at the current prices of the stablecoins in the top 100 by market cap:

Tether: $0.9982
USD Coin: $1.00
Binance USD: $1.00
Dai: $1.00
TerraUSD: $0.2032
TrueUSD: $1.00
PAX Dollar: $1.00
Neutrino USD: $0.9521

It sure looks like TerraUSD is the exception rather than the rule.

As for all defi coins, DeFi Llama lists over 100 of them, including Ethereum. Sure, the price of Ethereum is down ~25% in the past week, but that happens all the time in crypto. It doesn't mean the end is nigh. Again, Terra (LUNA) is the exception.

As for Bitcoin going to $10K, short it if you really believe that; if you're right, you'll make a mint.

You'll enjoy this whole video, but the part you're looking for is at 5:12:

uhh who tf says that?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ema2qqsoBzU

this guy is an idiot with no credibility, he endorsed mikki mase as a legit professional baccarat player

Are you saying I shouldn't watch this clickbait YouTube video "iwasbanned" double posted with no context?

This cycle is clearly over, likely has been for 5 months, but it's a certainty now with luna/ust debacle. Nearly every other protocol/coin's risk profile perception has been increased, this will lead to lower multiples. I expect a lot more selling this quarter as funds derisk and have this spillover into btc/eth as well.

Crypto has lagged equities for months now. Pretty easy trading to be had

Yea crypto is considered the most riskiest assets in the biggest portfolios. Yes they will continue to unwind as equity unwinds. If you are bearish equities then crypto still has a long way to go. I think we see 1500 eth before it ends. Maybe 20k btc. Those are both pretty big buy points for me barring impacts along the way

This is a fantastic article:

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/...die-in-a-fire/

The more time I spend looking at this the more I arrive at the notion that BTC has a place in this world but the other 99% of this industry solves nothing and does nothing.

Without reading that article that is the proper approach to take. Buy bitcoin only, until you can determine a reason why, if at all, you should diversify into any other cryptos as well.

Not sure why you would look at this for anything but the most absolute of bear takes. They are trying to convince you that no crypto has any place in the world and from that you extrapolate that btc has a place and nothing else does.

I would dare say that was your original thesis and this did nothing to influence that one way or the other

Ya sorry I didn't post the sum total of my thesis. Just didn't want to wall of text over Saturday morning coffee. There was a really cool discussion on clubhouse I attended yesterday that sort of merged with this article to arrive at that notion.

But from that article I do agree that BTC and the blockchain do a fraction of what bulls tout. That much I agree on. I just think the article doesn't present enough of what BTC can actually do (and that it does it well enough to not require a million other coins).

Some people view the extent to which Crypto speculation has occurred to be a delusional mania that exceeds its actual application.
Its also possible that it becomes everything its believers believe, and more, but at a point in the future that is way outside anything investible, meaning that for our lifetimes, most of its pricing energy is as a digital Beanie Baby.

Also, I just don't see any timeline where it isn't used in something 'majorly bad' that kicks off severe backlash laws that the general public is receptive to. If it had existed in 9/11/01, it would've almost surely been used by the attackers and criminalization or stiff regulatory compliance almost surely been included in whatever Freedom Soaring Eagle Hero Act passed in the years immediately thereafter... Go ahead and mock this scenario, there will be an I Told You So, at some point.

Are you reaching the conclusion about BTC having a place because you disagree with the substance of the article, or because you believe its bearish sentiment is a contrary indicator?

I agree with you, particularly about crypto as a whole. 99% of what was worth hundreds of millions to tens of billion are going to suffer a -99% drawdown. Jpegs, earning 375% apy on defi, all of this will not age well. I do think Bitcoin, which doesn't really promise anything aside from it's declining issuance over time has a place in a macro portfolio. While it's users may have promised 6 and 7 figure price estimates, bitcoin itself has not and just continues doing as promised.

A lot of the benefits of bitcoin that were touted for the last 24 months to get more and more people buying in at higher levels, were all true, they will just be forgotten during a deep bear market. I've started accumulating again in a slow, methodical fashion and will continue making buys every time it reaches a lower level. Same goes with ETH, which is a lot more speculative, but I'm still bullish on a long time horizon.

What probability do you think orders at those levels get filled? I agree with everything in your last few posts, except I think there's a > 50% chance ~25k was the bottom (at least short-term -- I think we get a W-shape recovery). I bought at 29k.

I'm excited to scoop btc @ 15k by winter

These are the people who, when it reaches $15K, will wait for <$10K before 'they scoop it up'. If you're not excited to buy bitcoin now you won't be excited to buy it at $15K because you simply don't really understand it. If you understood it then you'd be excited to buy it now.

Options markets are pricing these probabilities for btc eoy.

Roughly a 9% probability of btc ending the year at 10k, 17% for 15k and 27% for 20k.

lol.