What is risk free?

Except for the guaranteed risk of holding a currency that loses 5% of its value every week. - Saylor, probably


I'm not really following the argument. If you hold something that appreciates in value, you still have every incentive to invest it, you just need to outperform what you already hold. Where does the idea that suddenly no incentives exist come from?


It seems like we can already see this taking place now. People are still yoloing with altcoins despite BTC's insane growth.

tech improving while nobody spends their money is quite the conundrum

Nice quick shorting profit, time to long btc to the moon again. Let’s go

Why? You think companies would stop innovating if consumption went down? The Musk's/Job's of the world would retire? Btw I don't actually think comsumption would go down because most people aren't consuming because of inflation. They are consuming because it feels good and they can afford it.

Completely agree. It just shifts the baseline to the point where if you just save you are already making a few % a year from deflation.

+1

If people don’t believe that .
Still lot money to made on the market ….

Im one of those that believes deflationary currency do not entice investment simply because the risk is twice as big than using an inflationary currency.

U make a bad investment with Inflationary investment ?
Meh , inflation eat your lost , you can take more risk and try innovate more without much damage .
Your innovation can get more value over time since asset with inflationary currency gains value .
Doing nothing with an inflationary currency you are sure to lose value over time , so growth/innovation is not a choice but a necessity .

U make a bad investment with a deflationary currency?
Ouch , first you lose a lot more because you use something that would gain value by itself with the compounding effect that is lost for ever .
Since a deflationary currency means , money gains value and all other stuff by default lose value , why try innovate ?
knowing the stuff you build will only lose value over time while if you don’t innovate your money gains value ?

The concept of a deflationary currency seem totally counterproductive .

Bitcoin will work as a reserve asset but never as currency .

Fwiw , the day people will acknowledge that a currency is not a long term investment but just a token to exchange temporary value ( like in a casino ) , the world will get better for the common man .

Right if the common man wants to not get ****ed by inflation he better learn about investing. Seriously, how can you think inflation is a good thing? People are still greedy and they would still invest. And if they stopped investing then so what? The shares you buy aren't going to the company. All that liquidity went into the company when they first issued stock. The secondary market might shrink whoch meant stocks would trade at smaller multiples (less demand for stock).

Of course .
Peoples want freedom but hey , they want it without government ?
You better put some work on yourself and learn to be autonomous and investing right ?
( I’m speaking in general , not towards u ).

Again , inflation or deflation are normal flow of investment cycle .
It ain’t the devil of everything .

If anyone was responsable in investment like you said , buying 1 once of gold per year , some bitcoin or w.e , they wouldn’t care .

Tragedy that so few knows about investing ? Yes sure .
But hey if people are too dumb not to think it’s important to learn that ,
wtf you want me to do ?
But the point remains .

Obv . Im not speaking about hyperinflation.


And anyway, you didn’t respond really about deflationary currency and how imo it would affect the economy in a bad way ?
You seem not agreeing , So why ?

I'm not sure if you are agreeing or disagreeing with me.

GCM, is arguing that people investing in BTC will incentivizes them to spend less money because he is arguing the price of BTC will go up and I responded by saying there have been plenty of other things people can invest in that do the same thing.

Forget about if each one of these investments are inflationary or not because it isn't really relative to GCM's original argument unless you think for some reason a significant amount of people understand what inflationary means, what it takes for a currency/investment to be inflationary and that they care if a currency/investment is expected to grow vs being inflationary.

I could say the same thing I said to shuffle to you. People aren't reducing their consumption because they now have access to a currency/investment that is not inflationary. However, you could argue some will reduce spending because they have an investment in BTC that they think will continue to go up.

So your argument is that nobody will buy anything because their purchasing power will increase in the future?

If it is true that most people are going to buy less stuff because their purchasing power will be higher in the future then companies will produce less stuff and lay off workers because demand for their service/product is going down. This would be a very bad things for everyone. If you disagree with this then you are arguing that companies will continue to manufacture goods (aka: supply will stay the same), but people will buy less (demand will go down)... What does that mean for the price of these goods today?

I think it would be a snowball fallacy of me to predict if people would invest and consume more or less in a deflationary environment. Do you agree?
My point is: inflation is zero-sum because money doesn't have intrinsic value. When more money springs into existence there are more potential claims on resources, more tokens that are redeemable for actually valuable things. Therefore it is immoral to create money out of thin air. Deflation would allow everyone in society to benefit from the improvements in tech made by companies and scientists.
You seem to oppose deflation because investement would be reduced. I think that's a bit of a snowball fallacy, as in it's too difficult to predict what would happen. But thing about the free market: if people start investing less what happens to the price of stocks? You always reach an equilibrium where KO suddenly has a 10% yield because few people give a damn about investing. Even if investment was reduced the price of equity would go down to a point that attracted investors.

What I wrote was very theoretical and speculative: I don't actually think consumption would go down because most people aren't consuming because of inflation, they do it because it feels food and they can afford it.
I think you argument was a bit of a snowball fallacy.
But I do think reduced consumption is a good thing because it causes downward pressure on prices, it forces companies to offer things at a lower price.

Why go with the thing where we don't know what will happen if the concern is spreading out the societal benefit from tech? What about a sovereign wealth fund or some other form of spreading out ownership of companies to citizens?

This is all well and good for people with resources/BTC but people without BTC who just got laid off in the transition to deflationary currency and can't get a job due to reduced consumption might be in a tough spot.

I think it would be very difficult to argue this; the issue here is the scale. I don't believe that our leading innovators even consider this type of small thing when determining whether or not they will start a business. It would be like finding some footage of Steve Jobs saying "I just knew that if I could get a personal computer in every American household then I'd stay one step ahead of inflation!"

In the event that someone is dissuaded from starting a business (or some other venture) because they could just leave their money in BTC and earn, then my guess is that their conviction isn't enough to succeed and BTC has done them a huge favor. I don't see it stifling innovation.

Yes in a very tough spot where everything keeps going down in price. How dreadful. Like I said I don't actually think consumption would go down much because inflation isn't the reason people consume. They consume because they can afford it and it feels good.

I agree. Inovation simply happens if you leave people alone. The people that inovate do it out of passion and greed. It makes me sad that people actually think inflation is a good thing. When enough people realize BTC is simply a superior technology it'll go mainstream.

I totally disagree .

Saving / Money -> currency , commodities, RE, stocks , bonds .
It is all the same thing , it’s values (savings/money) under different forms that gains or lose value under different economic conditions .

All of those can be at anytime be transform to currency at some point and be used to exchange it for something else .
That is savings /wealth.

Fwiw, savings ( cash, physical gold ) are like investments , they will fluctuate like any investment depending which economic condition prevails at that time .

Fwiw , to me inflation has nothing with good or bad .
It’s something that is .

What is inflation really .
It is just the currency going down in value vs assets /real stuff .
currency going down in value are made for different reasons .
It is not just about printing of money .
So even if you have bitcoin but a huge crisis in the world would dwarf supply with for something , the prices should still go up up right ?
Regardless you have Bitcoin or not .

I mean it would be a strange world where the currency , i use to buy stuff , gain value while my house goes down in value .

What is the biggest hurdle for innovation if it isn’t t cost ?
I don’t see how an increasing in cost For innovation due to risk ( using deflationary currency for example ) , wouldn’t affect the degree of innovation ?

Where do you think wages comes from ? Profits right ?
How can you keep a job if everything going down in value ?
That is what 1930 depression was right ?

Prices kept going down and people kept losing their jobs because corporations couldn’t make enough money right ?

How is it a good thing ?

Deflation is great when you have money but it isn’t if you have no money or no job .

Ps: Sorry if I hijacked the thread so I’ll stop .
But I just don’t get it if I’m wrong …

Not at all. It's an interesting point that I never would have thought of, and even though I disagree, it's interesting to think about. You're not alone in being concerned about this. I see similar worries brought up in discussions on other topics, so it's great to hear and discuss it here as it helps solidify my thoughts on other things as well.

Looks like more Tether FUD you guys. Honestly this one actually concerns me a bit.



Here is the 8 minute podcast: https://racket.com/jason/r9YbA

Why is this concerning? Without knowing this person, it sounds like some youtubers are going to investigate tether... after the NY attorney general couldn't find any evidence of wrongdoing.

If the NY attorney general cleared them, Coinbase added them after going public (they definitely gave a thorough investigation), and pretty much every exchange and crypto fund vouches for them, then I'm not seeing what some youtubers are going to dig up. Seems like the same fud we've been hearing since 2016 or so.


Sidenote: this isn't to say that tether is 100% safe. The most worrying thing is that most of their reserves are held in cash equivalents and it's impossible to say there's no event which could occur that makes it impossible for them cover all tethers with USD.