Quote:
Originally Posted by supersplitz
I didn't realize it was such a sensitive subject. In the link you provided, unless I read it wrong, it was comparing the results of BTC vs an index of the top 20 alt coins. I'm not trying to guess if BTC is going to gain or lose in market share vs alt coins. I'm trying to ensure I capture the return of the entire crypto market over the next 10-15 years.
Is that really such a horrendous idea? I don't see how a strategy of holding a proportionate value of the top 30 currencies (including BTC) and re-balancing it monthly fails to do that. Isn't that less risky than just holding BTC no matter what while also guaranteeing yourself the return in value in all of crypto?
You have to decide, do you want the highest EV, do you want to capture the entire crypto results, or do you want less risk? Weighted index of top 30 coins doesn't capture all of crypto, but it will at least weight it heavily away from the absolute worst crap. There is no reason to have any exposure to the bottom 500 coins for example. The whole market is so strongly correlated to BTC that this will still not give much diversification benefits either, it's just more variance for results in the same directions.
Rebalancing monthly seems dangerous too, as you will have to buy into any new hype as it's being hyped up into the top 30, but then when it has crashed out you will have to sell it much lower, to buy into the new hyped up coin, and so on. It sounds like a perpetual money drain from you to the pump'n'dumpers.