umm... honestly not trying to derail this thread and want to keep it decent discussion but this was very well documented how many koreans were mortaging their homes and going deep into credit card debt to buy btc

it was pretty widely reported by mainstream news, if you want to disagree with people fine, but at least have the decency to spend 10 seconds google searching the statement before you ridicule it as bs

you may be unaware of it, but we're all unaware of plenty of things that still happened nonetheless - either way, be better and post in good faith going forward because even if your side of the debate is correct and TS is grossly exaggerating, posts like this don't just undermine your credibility but the credibility of all the other people who think along your lines but choose not to shitpost

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/10/b...urrencies.html

Bitcoin to 11k in next 2-3 weeks

What is the guarantee that it remains so volatile and non correlated?

Any super volatile asset is obviously going to be a great addition to a rebalancing portfolio in hindsight

Volatility + zero correlation aren't sufficient conditions for this.

You're conflating volatility + low correlation with mean reversion. But Bitcoin isn't necessarily mean reverting.

I'm certainly not doing this. I'm just saying it doesn't take a genius or sophisticated research to say that allocating bitcoin to your rebalancing portfolio in the last few years would be good. It has ranged incredibly well, so that alone would make it amazing. I'm not even sure how correlated it has been. Any sort of low correlation would make it even better.

I'm long bitcoin btw. This paper is just silly. It may or may not be a good addition to your portfolio in the future.

I didn't read past the introduction. Does the paper say anything about why it will improve the sharpe ratio in the future? (Not just that it has done in the past, so will in the future)

Mainstream news knows what the koreans are doing now? Did they go do a survey with all the koreans? Or did the koreans come tell them what they were doing? Or did the korean exchanges somehow find out where the money was coming from, then report it to "main stream" news.

I briefly skimmed the article and it appears they have a couple kids who got into crypto. So what? Now all of Korea is hooked because this journalist found a couple crypto fanboys. You could have walked the streets of the US and found plenty of people into crypto, so why was Korea the cause of the boom?

dude don't be a douche and google korea bitcoin debt that was just a single example

fs be better than this, need to give you an undertitle of ostrich

I googled it and I could tell by the titles the first 5 articles listed were no better then the last. Literally full of air and **** pulled out of someones ass.

Google, how to make money by making clickbait. Thats all they are. Not an ounce of substance to any of them.

Not my fault you prefer to be an ostrich

Not my fault your a sheep. Maybe the sheep of all sheeps if you believe **** articles like that.

This was mainstream news in the top Korean newspapers for months. Multiple articles were posted in this very thread. How can you have a rational bull thesis if you don't even know basic facts?

It's a ponzi, and like all ponzis, the late buyers get destroyed. That wave has burned out. Why do you think it hasn't made new highs in 2.5 years? Because there aren't first wave suckers any more to put in their life savings and lose it all while the whales cash out. People got burned. And you need huge recent appreciation (hundreds of percent in months) to get these people in anyway. At this price bitcoin is in a bull trap: it needs a trillion dollars flowing in to moon, but it won't get a trillion dollars without mooning.

Late buyers get rekt all the time, it doesn't need to be a ponzi! Go buy any other "legit" asset at the top a 9 year bull run, that went up 1000000000%, go ahead and buy.... Amazon went into a bear market several times.

You are that idiot that will talk **** in specific moments, to argue your case. Your pathetic story makes sense because "they are facts" so your story must be true! Lets see what you say when btc breaks 20k, I'm sure you'll have a new narrative, some other bullcrap excuse how it's a ponzi! At what point does it not become a ponzi?

I guess market cycles mean nothing, I guess it's just all bull market, and we can't be in a bear market for 2.5 years, no new all time high, so it must be a ponzi!
Do you even trade bro?
Pathetic!

Amazon produces revenue and profit that can grow and makes investing in it a sane thing to do..bitcoin has negative profit. Not even slightly the same thing.

Well let's see. In the last runup in 2017, the market cap of all ponzi assets (worthless alt coins, fraud coins, fraud IPOs), went to $300 billion. So we know that the ******ed ponzi money who doesn't care about scarcity or centralization or even viability (because they're buying **** purely in a ponzi rush to get rich) can bid something up to at least $300 billion.

So the "not a ponzi" price is a lot higher than here. This should be obvious to you with a working brain.
What's pathetic is how emotional you are about a made up string of digits that has to set 30 gallons of gasoline on fire just to make a single transaction. You ain't sane when it comes to bitcoin, bro.

And all of those things you list are possibilities. I'm trying to analyze the facts to get an idea of what moves bitcoin and why, to see where it could go from here and what kind of market we're in. You're the equivalent of a roider going on a roid rage because (in his mind) someone dissed his girl (bitcoin) by not agreeing she's the most beautiful girl in the world. It's so pathetic.

TS you post another stupid article to back yourself up? It states it's estimated korea had 30% of all trading volume. Hell, I can have 99% of all volume if I just set up an exchange and wash trade and fake the volume which is what those exchanges do. But the article just prints it like it's real and the sheep believe it.

No it doesn't state that, you clown. I can't imagine what an idiot you have to be to disagree with me on actual hard facts that were discussed in this thread. From a printed book on crypto regulation:



Korean language newspapers discussed the bitcoin speculation extensively and numerous surveys were done. It was the biggest story in South Korea for weeks, and ended up with the government stepping in to stop the speculation, losses and suicides.

How am I more factually correct on bitcoin than almost every bull? It's amazing how dumb and uninformed these people are. Same people who were calling for $100K in 2018. Just no clue how the world works or what the facts are. How can you possibly analyze what's going to happen in the future if you have zero awareness of the scale of the last ponzi? Just amazing ignorance on your part.

toothfaker,

So greyscale buying 1.5x the daily bitcoin produced indicates what?

Are they just setting up a ponzi wave?

It indicates vast hordes of retails buying up GBTC (basically a bitcoin ETF you can buy in a stock account) to speculate, just like they are on all stocks right now. Tens of millions of new retail accounts have been opened at brokers; daily active retail clients at brokers have soared 5x above normal to new highs. They're piling into the the crap/speculative stuff.

If anything it shows that it's precisely a ponzi going on.

Grayscale eth at a 700% premium

Yeah, the premiums get nuts sometimes on Grayscale ETFs. Short fees are crazy if you can short them at all which adds to the mayhem.

I love that the bitcoin bulls don't know the first thing about the space they're invested in. Are you the only sane/knowledgeable one, housenuts? GreenSmoke85 getting high on the pump articles for morons he's read about Grayscale buying so much, not realizing they're a retail ETF and that this represents retail buying. He thinks they're an institution or something and giving bitcoin cred. Just great stuff, you can't make this up.

Wow

Cmon brother, I gave Amazon as an example, are fiat currencies a ponzi? The Forex markets?
I get mad because what you write isn't true, apologies if I come of like a roided monkey!

But lets have a serious and real discussion, I want to get to the bottom of this.

You call bitcoin a ponzi, so at what point do you concede? You must have something in your mind a number, time, adoption, something, when do you change your mind and say bitcoin is not a ponzi?

Sure we can assign a number to bits blah blah, the truth is still that it costs, time, energy, computing power, human work, computer work, and some other stuff to create bitcoin, all that costs $$$, so in essence it's not really a random number.

No. A ponzi/pyramid market is something that:

- Produces little of external economic worth relative to its valuation (some ponzis are based on real businesses)
- That most people buy into with the promises of getting rich (promises given to them by the current holders)
- That has no fundamental valuation and appreciates only by later speculation money paying off the earlier speculation money.

Fiat promises no return and doesn't rely on the greater fool theory for appreciation (in fact, it can't appreciate because it's stable store of value).

Most of what I write is true. My hitrate on truth and correct analysis is way higher than that of the bitcoin bulls. Why don't you get mad at them? Because they go along with the delusion that your girlfriend is hot.

My contention is that bitcoin is an illegal/fringe economy base of value (far below the current market cap) with a big speculation frenzy on top. That it's not viable for a mainstream currency and will never be one, hence the ponzi which is >90% of its value is doomed to collapse.

If it gains mainstream usage, if I see normal people using it to buy normal things in more than an ultra rare/fringe manner, it's no longer a ponzi.
It cost a lot of money to run a billion dollar Chinese ant farm erection pills ponzi as well. I'm sure Madoff had sizeable costs as well. Not ponzi because costs? The cost of running these ponzis is the "real" value?

Lol what. Find me a worse store of value than fiat.

How much are the Koreans down now in Bitcoin? Did they just happen to be able to perfectly time all their buys above 10k? Or are they up now? Or did they not HODL? Did the Koreans sell out at a loss and then are gonna buy the top again? Can't wait for the next update on what the Koreans are doing.