Is there going to be a summer selloff this year, and if so, will it be <$5k by September?

remember this post, Vegas is always on point (that was in Jan)

Your problem right there. They are not the same thing.
blockchain = interesting invention
btc = irrational exuberance and heavy manipulation

I don't think even 1 in 10 bulls understand the basics. Most of the bitcoin bulls itt have shown very little understanding of basic finance and economics.

I tend to agree that many of the biggest bulls have a very poor understanding of finance and rarely any background in it, not just itt. And many insist that only the people that have been invested since 2013 or earlier could possibly get it. Their tech knowledge varies a lot, but the more they get the tech, the less they get the finance aspects.

On the other hand the most vocal bears are generally traditional finance guys, often pretty smart. But obv there's a natural desire to hate on the thing that's making other people rich.

In any case it's all interesting to watch. I'm on the sidelines, probably until I see some tech improvements I can get excited about.

Zerohedge is sometimes garbage but this article was decent:
"But but but, we need LIQUIDITY"

lol

Foam at the mouth all you want, you ain't stopping this

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-reserve-asset

I think btc is going to be under 3k in 2019. The altcoins have some use but storage of value might not cut it anymore

You seem to believe that just because you take it personally, people who disagree with you also take it personally.
I was agnostic about btc but now believe it's bull**** based on facts. If you can show me that it is anything more than just madness of crowds, I will happily alter my opinion.
It's generally not a good idea to base your investment decisions on emotions.

What a lot of bulls don't seem to understand is that all the services bitcoin currently provides it already provided at a valuation of $300 and could still provide if it dropped back to $300. The extra $10k is speculation that it will get additional use cases where it beats fiat but I am no longer optimistic that it will find those before banks adjust. Banks and governments are slow to react but bitcoin isn't exactly a fast mover either.

"if you believe in the technology"

And if you believe it's true worth $1m a coin then accepting payments when it trades at $500k a coin is printing money. And there would still be a lot of people who would be rallying around it as a sound investment choice on the basis of their BELIEF IN THE TECHNOLOGY. You can't use your optimism about the future of the coin as a benefit of using it as a transaction medium.

Ultimately business owners sell goods and services for money so they can use that money for other things. Adding costs to converting their revenues to money is not a good thing. They may also want to invest in bitcoin and for the ones who do it's not a drawback but to everyone else it is.

So what exactly is the incentive you're talking about? That they can gouge you on conversions and crypto users will pay because of how inconvenient it is to convert their coins to currency otherwise?

Anyone have issues with Coinbase not sending SMS verification for BTC transfer? I've made transfers with them before without issues.

it is very difficult to mathematically or statistically show that bitcoin is "overvalued" or what a fair value for the price of 1 bitcoin should be, in part because bitcoin does not produce a cash flow or yield.

However, people have realized over time that bitcoin's network processes hundreds of thousands of individual transactions, and that these transactions, relative to the price of bitcoin at the time can be used as a proxy to detect how valuable bitcoin's network actually is.

point being, there are too many people using bitcoin and executing transactions for you to argue that its real value should be "300". its far far greater than that.


see this


https://woobull.com/introducing-nvt-...etect-bubbles/

I didn't say the real value is $300. I said no fundamental service has been added since the value was $300. Which basically means the network would be able to deliver its services even if the value dropped back to $300.

Edit: If I now read that NVT graph correctly with its log scale then we are still in a massive bubble. Not sure how valid that is and how he decided on his 'normal' values.

Crypto is providing a ton of options that make the transaction processing market much more competitive.

See that article on cheapair who is using an open source payment server that can handle BTC LTC and BCH, can be deployed on AWS relatively easily and use the same invoices compatible as BitPay the most common service is using.

Crypto isnt ready to completely replace credit card , banks and payment processors yet , but it s giving some really good healthy alternative.

People underestimate cost associated with fiat and overestimate those associated with bitcoin and how difficult it is to implement.

I'd agree. They should therefore stop posting their opinion on crypto related things and do a lot of reading. Ask questions in this thread to improve their understanding. People are often right about which way something is going but for the wrong reasons (ie. most BTC bulls).

As Pontylad was pointing out, people are quite polarised in their views. Either something is going to 0 or going to 100k, something is the next btc or its garbage. If a person says, 'btc won't go below 5k again,' they really don't know much about crypto. Even a person who says, 'it's highly unlikely btc will go below 5k' that person is probably quite ignorant of how crypto markets work currently. I'm not paraniod/tin-foil hat conspiracy theorist when I claim that there are people in the space that are basically deciding where btc goes next (up or down). If they want btc to go below 2k Jihan/china can make it happen. You're all playing a rigged game, you just don't realise it.

You're basically saying you think you can value btc better than a market where billions of $ trades happen each day. Brilliant

No I don't say that. The current value of bitcoin is what is needed to provide the services it provides which is basically linked to the velocity of transactions and speculation on the how much that could be in the future. The combination of that is currently valued around 8k. Based on the limited amount of new services offered in bitcoin I think most of that 8k is still speculation. But I guess that went over your head.

This won't really matter. By then if tx fees aren't enough for mining support rather than the coinbase tx, then bitcoin will have failed anyway.

I don’t understand how you’re drawing those conclusions. You’re totally still not understanding the metric I showed. Nvt is simply a relative ratio that takes into consideration the $ value of bitcoin moved everyday TO the raw number of transactions. Historically this has provided information on whether or not the total value of the network exceeds the actual price of 1 bitcoin on a relative basis:

At $300, which is exactly what you claimed, bitcoin would be demonstrably undervalued using this method because there are too many people executing txns in the network. Thus, “the rest of the 8k” is not speculation.


It’s been backtrsted and shown to have a reasonably high win rate as a data point at 55.5%
You can read more here:

https://medium.com/@QwQiao/nvt-and-o...s-48bae245afc3



Ok, no more lessons from me, you guys go back to ****posting

arent we a century away from capping anyway ?

Ya 122 years

If BTC (hypothetically) reaches 30k and beyond, will it pull alts up with it?

most likely yes

Yes the whole market is relatively correlated. I think over time many alts will go to zero. But right now, even the sh*tcoins get pulled up when btc/eth go up

So the live graph shows we are still in bubble territory. What value do you get when you use his method and put it near the middle of his 'normal' range?