Quote:
Originally Posted by Mat Cauthon
Next block minimum fees are always tricky and seldom important. The main reason for both of those things are one and the same, namely that the time to the next block is probabilistic. On average it takes 10 minutes for a new block to be found, but it is not too uncommon that it takes up to two hours.
Next block is pretty important. If you're not getting into the next block with high probability your chances of getting stuck for a long time are pretty high. But there's a lot of variables and it's all fairly complicated. If you want to be smart about it you have to look at what's happened in the preceding hours. If blocks have been processed at an unusually high frequency and you choose a fee that doesn't get you into the next block there's a very good chance you'll get stuck for a long time. On the other hand if there's a buildup in the memepool due to blocks being found less frequently leading up to your transaction, a fee that doesn't get you into the next block might still have a very high probability of being mined within the hour.
Also, 2 hours between blocks is incredibly rare.
If you use one of the few wallets with replace by fee (like Thremp pretends to even though he doesn't use bitcoin) it's not an issue, but none of the hardware wallets support it afaik. RBF is interesting cuz it's obviously great for bitcoin usability and keeping transaction costs within reason, but it's terrible for miners so there's a strong incentive to oppose it.