house i have a lot of respect for you but this feels like results oriented cope

in the prior months this thread just jumped back to life with "halving when" "moon" 200k by 2025, etc etc

only once it drops do we get the "well it's more of a long term process"

Are you saying since less bitcoins left to mined , the halving should have a lesser impact for bitcoin to go up ?

Ha keyword in your post 2025

We aren't even halfway through 2024 yet.

Anyone who expects up only on a short term trade is likely to get rekt.

Zoom out.

I think it's more of a function of how much it costs to make bitcoin.

The difficulty has gone up since halving.

Meaning miners are paying more money to generate half as much bitcoin.

I think that's a more important metric to look at than % of existing supply generated.

serious question, if all industrial miners decided to stop and it wasn't financially viable so there were no replacements, you'd get an occasional guy who mines with their old PC but that's about it, would the ecosystem collapse?

I'm not sure what you mean by 'ecosystem collapse' but if a large % of hash power went offline and no one else really mined, I think price would go down substantially. I think hash rate is very correlated with price.

It would also take forever for an old PC to mine, so no new blocks wound be generated. In that sense, yes it would collapse.

There's data out there on the current cost to generate per bitcoin, given various electricity costs, but I think it's around $20k (don't quote me - haven't looked in a while) so miners are still making good money. I also don't think that takes into account the fees generated on top of the coinbase reward, and fees have been quite good lately. At least they were for a week or so after halving. May have calmed down a bit

When there are almost no coins left to mine, and demand is just getting started, a major supply squeeze begins.

People still have no real concept of what true scarcity is either.

Rate cuts have effectively been priced out until 2025. Should provide some nice gasoline for the bubble peak along with expected $2 trillion budget deficits and money printers brrrrrrrr’ing as QE/liquidity increases.

Would be perfectly happy to chop for 6 months a la post-2020 halving from May - October.

The irony is almost hard to believe.

In a room of 100 people, you will know more about money than 98 of them after watching this video. https://youtu.be/jk_HWmmwiAs?si=peOeAZwY6F54J6aK

It's got seriously good animations too.

You seem to be flipping what is the cause and what is the effect. The cost to mine doesn't affect price, price affects the cost to mine.

Price has no direct effect on the cost to mine because a price did not exist for the first 10 months or so of Bitcoin’s existence. Difficulty + electricity determines the production cost.

Price can have an indirect effect, by encouraging more miners to join the network which will raise the difficulty and total energy cost to mine the next block, but there is no direct correlation between price and production cost.

If hash rate and energy prices remain constant and Bitcoin’s price doubles, the cost to mine the next block is still the same.