house i have a lot of respect for you but this feels like results oriented cope

in the prior months this thread just jumped back to life with "halving when" "moon" 200k by 2025, etc etc

only once it drops do we get the "well it's more of a long term process"

Are you saying since less bitcoins left to mined , the halving should have a lesser impact for bitcoin to go up ?

Ha keyword in your post 2025

We aren't even halfway through 2024 yet.

Anyone who expects up only on a short term trade is likely to get rekt.

Zoom out.

I think it's more of a function of how much it costs to make bitcoin.

The difficulty has gone up since halving.

Meaning miners are paying more money to generate half as much bitcoin.

I think that's a more important metric to look at than % of existing supply generated.

serious question, if all industrial miners decided to stop and it wasn't financially viable so there were no replacements, you'd get an occasional guy who mines with their old PC but that's about it, would the ecosystem collapse?

I'm not sure what you mean by 'ecosystem collapse' but if a large % of hash power went offline and no one else really mined, I think price would go down substantially. I think hash rate is very correlated with price.

It would also take forever for an old PC to mine, so no new blocks wound be generated. In that sense, yes it would collapse.

There's data out there on the current cost to generate per bitcoin, given various electricity costs, but I think it's around $20k (don't quote me - haven't looked in a while) so miners are still making good money. I also don't think that takes into account the fees generated on top of the coinbase reward, and fees have been quite good lately. At least they were for a week or so after halving. May have calmed down a bit

When there are almost no coins left to mine, and demand is just getting started, a major supply squeeze begins.

People still have no real concept of what true scarcity is either.