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Today , 05:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximus122
That's what I'm seeing too.

I think stocks/Bitcoin will be fine over the next 4 months or so and the Fed cuts will be a sell the news event, maybe inflation starts reacelerating again as the Fed allows more liquidity into the system and a bear market starts to run into 2026.

From 2012 until 2016 Gold had a horrible downswing, in anticipation of the Fed hiking rates, it fell from 1800 to 1000, and the hike itself actually market the bottom.
What'll really bake your noodle is if the reason we see a top in the markets over the next month(s) (or year) is because of disinflation
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
Today , 08:28 AM
Disinflation would prove Cathie Wood correct, so I would bet heavily against it.

When the Fed cuts rates it means businesses and individuals will seek more loans to spend into the economy, which increases demand for everything, which is inflationary. Also, money that is lying idle earning 5% also starts to be spent into the economy, since it isn't earning anything anymore, which increase demand for everything furter, more inflation.

Disinflation would be bullish for stocks, because it would mean lower rates.

Historically, you subtract 20 from the inflation rate and you get the pe of the market.

When inflation was 12% in the early 80s you had an 8 pe on the S and P 500.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
Today , 09:08 AM
Basically if you think we are going back to a world like 2010 to 2020 where inflation was very low and rates were very low, you can make an argument for stocks/real estate and Bitcoin here.

If you think inflation will be high this decade and we will be in a rising rate environment, stocks/real estate and Bitcoin are going to get hit and they are going to get hit hard.

So place your bets.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote

      
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