Everyone likes to talk about the yield curve being a predictor for a recession. It's definitely flattening and has been slightly inverted for a bit now but it's not fully inverted and even once it is it fully inverted the recession it is signalling may still may not happen for another year. In my eyes the yield curve is not signalling any immediate danger at the moment.
BTW, here is where I like to check the yield curve:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php You can actually click the graph and see how the curve has changed on a daily basis.
What I'm wondering is why no one seems to be too concerned about the low unemployment rate. Going back to 1950, every time we hit really low unemployment it's followed by a recession. Just eyeballing it, it looks like it normally happens within a couple years of hitting that low level. Although, in 1966 we did hit a fairly steady low unemployment level for 4 years prior to the recession but that seems to be the exception rather than the norm. It doesn't seem reasonable to expect a long period of sustained low unemployment.
On Friday unemployment #s were released and unemployment rose to 3.9 from 3.7. It's safe to assume that the stock market viewed this positively given that the stock market went straight up on Friday. I'm not so optimistic. To me this move just confirms that unemployment has hit the bottom of the trough and isn't moving to a lower range. We've been in this 4% to 3.7% range since March of 2018 (and were at 4.4 in March of 2017).
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...mployment-rate