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Old 12-26-2018, 10:29 AM   #176
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

Amazon very strong sales. House prices strong in CoreLogic's 20 city index. Every sign points to a robust US economy
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Old 12-26-2018, 10:49 AM   #177
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

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Originally Posted by CandyKreep View Post
Chances it has any positive affect on the market this week or next? Kinda seems like a single bucket of water being thrown on a house fire.
It's pretty positive. The US economy has shown zero sign of weakness which will get the dip buyers in. I agree with the house fire analogy, the fire has more power than the water, but at this point we're down around 20% with a VIX of 35 and a lot of shorts to unwind.

The proper way to view this with regard to trading is that one should become more cautious on a short and happier to cover it. It's pretty hard to continue a big bear market with a robust economy unless something like a 2008 liquidity crisis is ongoing.

Positive economic data also means earnings is likely to be quite good, which will put a January bid under the market.
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Old 12-26-2018, 11:05 AM   #178
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

This was an ugly bit of data though at 10am:

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8 vs 15 Expected

Market didn't like that at all.
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Old 12-26-2018, 01:07 PM   #179
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

Trump pulled it off with that tweet, lol
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Old 12-26-2018, 01:16 PM   #180
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
This was an ugly bit of data though at 10am:

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8 vs 15 Expected

Market didn't like that at all.
Pretty reliable contrarian indicator lately, keep it up bud.
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Old 12-26-2018, 01:21 PM   #181
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

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Pretty reliable contrarian indicator lately, keep it up bud.
WTF? My mid-term view this morning (strong economy = buyup/cover shorts) was spot on, and the minor contrarian indicator did indeed spook the market short term.

They're informative posts - why is the market moving the way it is, what is it likely to do? Morning strong data (3 points) meant is was going to buy up/not likely to sell down a lot more as the US economy is in very strong shape. Fed manufacturing at 10am (for one region) temporarily spooked.

You're just mentally ill I think.
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Old 12-26-2018, 01:22 PM   #182
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

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WTF? My mid-term view this morning (strong economy = buyup/cover shorts) was spot and the minor contrarian indicator did indeed spook the market short term.

You're just mentally ill I think.
I really enjoy your fundemental takes especially whenever the market goes the opposite direction . Please keep it up.
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Old 12-26-2018, 01:24 PM   #183
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

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I really enjoy your fundemental takes especially whenever the market goes the opposite direction . Please keep it up.
Mods, I'm not posting again apart from bets until this loser gets banned. Enough is enough. Constant zero content trolling tarding up 10+ threads.

I welcome genuine criticism but this is pure zero content mentally ill nonsense and I have no interest in dealing with it any more. The posts today were spot on and helpful and I get this.
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Old 12-26-2018, 01:29 PM   #184
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

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Mods, I'm not posting again apart from bets until this loser gets banned. Enough is enough. Constant zero content trolling tarding up 10+ threads.

I welcome genuine criticism but this is pure zero content mentally ill nonsense and I have no interest in dealing with it any more. The posts today were spot on and helpful and I get this.
So just so the forum is clear you are conceding the bet then if you won't be posting anymore? It's amazing for someone that has called other posters the names you have that you can't take the heat on what hilariously awful fundemental content you produce.
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Old 12-26-2018, 01:39 PM   #185
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

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Quote:
Mods, I'm not posting again apart from bets until this loser gets banned. Enough is enough. Constant zero content trolling tarding up 10+ threads.
So just so the forum is clear you are conceding the bet then if you won't be posting anymore? It's amazing for someone that has called other posters the names you have that you can't take the heat on what hilariously awful fundemental content you produce.
Like I said, mentally ill. Do you not know what "apart from bets" means? Did you not read in your emotional haste to get one over me?

My comments today were extremely helpful for anyone figuring out how to navigate today's market. I don't need to take the time to post them and I won't now.

I love criticism and it's half the reason I post but you're like a dumped ex girlfriend who's obsessed and mentally ill. I'm done posting here apart from bets until you have a ban or forum exile. Your posts are pure attention seeking streams of idiocy with zero content, and you're unable to confine them to off topic threads, tarding up high content threads with your ex-gf-like obsession with me.
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Old 12-26-2018, 01:43 PM   #186
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

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Like I said, mentally ill. Do you not know what "apart from bets" means? Did you not read in your emotional haste to get one over me?

My comments today were extremely helpful for anyone figuring out how to navigate today's market. I don't need to take the time to post them and I won't now.

I love criticism and it's half the reason I post but you're like a dumped ex girlfriend who's obsessed and mentally ill. I'm done posting here apart from bets until you have a ban or forum exile. Your posts are pure attention seeking idiot streams with zero content.
I've actually won money for investors on 2+2, I'm a real person who hasn't been banned from every other subforum because no one wants to deal with him. I'll happily discuss any issues you or anyone else has with my content, have zero concern if a mod thinks I'm out of bounds.
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Old 12-26-2018, 02:54 PM   #187
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
It's pretty positive. The US economy has shown zero sign of weakness which will get the dip buyers in. I agree with the house fire analogy, the fire has more power than the water, but at this point we're down around 20% with a VIX of 35 and a lot of shorts to unwind.

The proper way to view this with regard to trading is that one should become more cautious on a short and happier to cover it. It's pretty hard to continue a big bear market with a robust economy unless something like a 2008 liquidity crisis is ongoing.

Positive economic data also means earnings is likely to be quite good, which will put a January bid under the market.
I’m sure that’s good advice, although I had already bought a small position on a 12/31 SPY $237 call at the open (based on the retail news + the Trump-Pump)... It’s up about 60% but for obvious reasons will need to be careful with it.
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Old 12-26-2018, 05:52 PM   #188
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

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Originally Posted by CandyKreep View Post
Iím sure thatís good advice, although I had already bought a small position on a 12/31 SPY $237 call at the open (based on the retail news + the Trump-Pump)... Itís up about 60% but for obvious reasons will need to be careful with it.
Congrats Candy, for all the crap you've gotten nice one here. Bet your only regret is the "small" sizing but still you can't be disappointed with a win in a day where the action 180'd.
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Old 12-26-2018, 06:07 PM   #189
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

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Congrats Candy, for all the crap you've gotten nice one here. Bet your only regret is the "small" sizing but still you can't be disappointed with a win in a day where the action 180'd.
Indeed... But canít really regret that too much. It just felt a little overboard risking anymore than 2-3% given the circumstance.... canít really see this as a legit bottom though, right? I get the feeling Iíll need to be out tomorrow or Friday.
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Old 12-27-2018, 10:03 AM   #190
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

Jobless claims came in under the forecast for the third time in four weeks. Good sign for the economy and perhaps a reason to hold the long today.

Although, S&P futures seem to point to a drop. What to do, what to do...

Thinking I’ll hold unless a retreat below 240 which should be the closest near-term support.
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Old 01-03-2019, 11:08 PM   #191
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

Market sentiment has been pretty poor the last couple of days with the way the market reacted to China/Euro PMI data and Cook's message, but looking at bonds today, the move feels way overdone. Fed Fund Futures imply a ~50% chance of rate cut by Dec 2019, which is too fast given the GDP and employment data.

China might be slowing, but it's still strong. And Frankly, I don't buy Cook's message about China's slowdown. Cook is using China as a scapegoat. AAPL had to revise its earnings because people (in general) are realizing how much of a ripoff Apple products are.


Anyway, it should be an interesting month. NFP and Powell tomorrow, earnings and trade talks all this month.

S&P: 2448
NDX: 6147
VIX: 25.45
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:52 AM   #192
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

Likelihood of a China trade deal next week?
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Old 01-05-2019, 12:03 AM   #193
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

Since we don't have a LC thread, I figured I would post this here being that it's macro-related... I found this pretty damn funny. This is a FB post from a friend of a friend who apparently is one of these mouth-breathing Rothschild conspiratards…










I'm sure a lot of you could've owned him harder than me, but I thought I did okay lol

Last edited by CandyKreep; 01-05-2019 at 12:05 AM. Reason: I guess I don't care if you guys know my real name ;)
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Old 01-05-2019, 12:16 AM   #194
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

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Likelihood of a China trade deal next week?
No clue, but if they make a deal, it would obviously be really good for the markets. S&P and NDX futures gapped up 40 and 120 pts respectively on Sunday's opening after the G20 meeting on the assumption that progress was being made.
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Old 01-05-2019, 01:16 PM   #195
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by CandyKreep View Post
Since we don't have a LC thread, I figured I would post this here being that it's macro-related... I found this pretty damn funny. This is a FB post from a friend of a friend who apparently is one of these mouth-breathing Rothschild conspiratards…

...

I'm sure a lot of you could've owned him harder than me, but I thought I did okay lol
a wise man told me don't argue with fools,
'cause people from a distance can't tell who is who

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Old 01-06-2019, 12:45 AM   #196
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

Everyone likes to talk about the yield curve being a predictor for a recession. It's definitely flattening and has been slightly inverted for a bit now but it's not fully inverted and even once it is it fully inverted the recession it is signalling may still may not happen for another year. In my eyes the yield curve is not signalling any immediate danger at the moment.

BTW, here is where I like to check the yield curve: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php You can actually click the graph and see how the curve has changed on a daily basis.

What I'm wondering is why no one seems to be too concerned about the low unemployment rate. Going back to 1950, every time we hit really low unemployment it's followed by a recession. Just eyeballing it, it looks like it normally happens within a couple years of hitting that low level. Although, in 1966 we did hit a fairly steady low unemployment level for 4 years prior to the recession but that seems to be the exception rather than the norm. It doesn't seem reasonable to expect a long period of sustained low unemployment.

On Friday unemployment #s were released and unemployment rose to 3.9 from 3.7. It's safe to assume that the stock market viewed this positively given that the stock market went straight up on Friday. I'm not so optimistic. To me this move just confirms that unemployment has hit the bottom of the trough and isn't moving to a lower range. We've been in this 4% to 3.7% range since March of 2018 (and were at 4.4 in March of 2017).

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...mployment-rate

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Old 01-06-2019, 01:08 AM   #197
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

Is the USA importing more people than boomers retiring?

I know Canada is, lol we import 400k people a year (relative to our population that's huge). Without that I think there would be a massive vacuum for jobs. Unemployment would stay low for really long. But can't speak to the USA's rate of immigration.
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Old 01-06-2019, 01:36 AM   #198
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

That is an interesting dynamic but I don't believe more job openings necessarily equates to more jobs filled. For example, we've had lots of job openings in areas like technology or healthcare in the past but if the unemployed are not qualified for those positions the positions will remain unfilled and the people will remain unemployed.

It seems likely that this dynamic would push the overall unemployment rate down but there should still be fluctuations based on the short term debt cycle.
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Old 01-07-2019, 12:35 AM   #199
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

Wages would rise and people could afford, or become motivated, to become qualified for those positions. Of course more openings leads to more jobs filled. Employers either lower their standards, raise wages, and or invest in training.
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Old 01-17-2019, 11:12 PM   #200
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Re: BFI Macro and Events Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper::: View Post
Market sentiment has been pretty poor the last couple of days with the way the market reacted to China/Euro PMI data and Cook's message, but looking at bonds today, the move feels way overdone. Fed Fund Futures imply a ~50% chance of rate cut by Dec 2019, which is too fast given the GDP and employment data.

China might be slowing, but it's still strong. And Frankly, I don't buy Cook's message about China's slowdown. Cook is using China as a scapegoat. AAPL had to revise its earnings because people (in general) are realizing how much of a ripoff Apple products are.


Anyway, it should be an interesting month. NFP and Powell tomorrow, earnings and trade talks all this month.

S&P: 2448
NDX: 6147
VIX: 25.45
Bump. Two weeks later:

S&P: 2636
NDX: 6718
VIX: 18.06
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