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10-01-2018 , 10:08 AM

#151

TeflonDawg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 5,928

The flippening?

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10-01-2018 , 03:02 PM

#152

rafiki

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So I'm a noob, but what I get from that is every time historically that the two have touched like that on the graph, they've diverged sharply after on rather long cycles. So equity downturn and housing upswing?

If it's that, I dunno how housing swings more in Canada. It's so overcooked.

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10-01-2018 , 03:13 PM

#153

TimM

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May be misleading because it's percentage based. For example, stocks fell hard in '00, so naturally home values represented a larger percentage of household net worth. Doesn't mean that home prices rose sharply at the same time. Data would be better presented in some absolute terms.

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10-01-2018 , 09:00 PM

#154

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Nikkei is hitting 27 year highs, really tough for emerging markets to do well right now. Interesting to note land prices (mostly in Japanese urban areas) rose yoy also for the first time since those same asset highs in '91. That's incredible to have 26 years of yoy decrease, makes you think about asset bubbles today and what the long term damage could be recovering from an eventual blow off top.

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10-01-2018 , 09:19 PM

#155

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,410

Quote:

Originally Posted by rafiki

You should check out my graph on global warming and pirates. It gives approximately the same amount of useful information.

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10-01-2018 , 09:23 PM

#156

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,410

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

Nikkei is hitting 27 year highs, really tough for emerging markets to do well right now.

I'm not getting the connection between the first and second clause of that statement. If you mean the relative and absolute momentum thing, I agree. If that was not your point, please state your thesis.

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12-14-2018 , 06:24 AM

#157

ToothSayer

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Interesting day this morning.

ECB stops bond buying (aka QE/stimulus), right as the EU is slowing down, although they will roll over the bonds they have so they won't reduce the balance sheet.
Chinese data comes in pretty weak, affecting Asian markets

The only happy thing is that the US economy seems fine. Jobless claims crushed estimates.

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12-14-2018 , 11:10 AM

#158

CandyKreep

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Jobless claims crushed estimates.

Bit of a nothingburger, to borrow your parlance... no?

Jobless claims is a low-impact driver compared to NFP which came in rather ugly last week.

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12-14-2018 , 11:38 AM

#159

ToothSayer

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It's an indicator of US economic strength which is what matters to keep the market from rolling over into proper fear given global conditions. All the data the came through since that post above backed up a strong US economy as well, which is why the market has been strong from its somewhat down open on global fears.

The Russell 2000 (smallest stocks in the market) is green today largely on that bet - they have less global exposure with a strong US economy.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 12-14-2018 at 11:47 AM.

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12-14-2018 , 12:31 PM

#160

CandyKreep

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

The Russell 2000 (smallest stocks in the market) is green today largely on that bet - they have less global exposure with a strong US economy.

Well, that didn’t last long. I’m seeing -0.03% as of this moment.

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12-14-2018 , 01:53 PM

#161

ToothSayer

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I'm not expecting them to rally but they're broadly outperforming the rest. Which is the point - something like 18% foreign revenue exposure vs more than double that for the rest of the market. Today's flows are governed by a broad "ok the world sucks but the US is fine" atttitude.

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12-17-2018 , 09:41 AM

#162

ToothSayer

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10 minutes ago: Empire Manufacturing (Dec) 10.9 vs 20 Expected

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12-17-2018 , 03:58 PM

#163

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

Russell 2000 entered bear market today.

Just for a contrarian take, that's usually a buying opportunity IF the longer term uptrend in big caps stays in tact. They need to show some leadership if the market is going to find a bottom, decent sentiment gague on risk appetite given their components even if the market caps don't move the economy like their bigger counter parts.

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12-17-2018 , 04:35 PM

#164

CandyKreep

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So, do we see a bottom on the major indices if the Fed is dovish on Wednesday?

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12-18-2018 , 05:13 PM

#165

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by CandyKreep

So, do we see a bottom on the major indices if the Fed is dovish on Wednesday?

No, I think the market uses whatever the Fed does as an excuse to sell off hard, though there may be a bounce that day if the Fed doesn't hike which is what I think Shuffle is playing for with those calls.

I thought TS would've blasted you for your bull put spread this week since he goes full autism on these kinds of things, but in view of pretty much everything happening right now that is literally the worst play you could possibly make. Even selling naked puts and buying them back immediately after the bounce makes more sense if that is the aim.

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12-18-2018 , 05:21 PM

#166

CandyKreep

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Mori****a System

I thought he would’ve too. It’s for sure the worst play since I’ve started in options. I had a belief that SPY wouldn’t eclipse it’s 2018 low, particularly right at the end of the year. Not looking very good right now.

Also, selling naked options isn’t a possibility given my account size and broker.

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12-19-2018 , 04:09 PM

#167

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by CandyKreep

I hope you closed this out this morning because otherwise you are dead and the market is now shredding your corpse just to make sure you are triply dead.

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12-19-2018 , 05:22 PM

#168

CandyKreep

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Mori****a System

I hope you closed this out this morning because otherwise you are dead and the market is now shredding your corpse just to make sure you are triply dead.

No, like an idiot I saw the move up this morning and thought “maybe these hikes have been priced in and we’ll see a little rebound”

I got ass-raped to the tune of 20% today. But I did buy some puts to hedge and closed out of my bull spread before it got full on cataclysmic. It could’ve been much worse.

I honestly had no business being in that trade to begin with. Should’ve took these last two weeks off. I still have a lot to learn.

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12-21-2018 , 11:26 AM

#169

ToothSayer

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Enormous Christmas gift to the longs from the fed's Williams 15 minutes ago. What a mea culpa by the fed for Wednesday.

Fed's Williams Says Fed Expects Healthy Economy, Listening To Markets
Fed's Williams Says Economy Very Strong, Expects Further Growth
Fed's Williams Says Something Like Two Rate Hikes In 2019 Makes Sense

If we don't rally strongly back up to $260 next week then we're truly in a bear.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 12-21-2018 at 11:46 AM.

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12-21-2018 , 11:38 AM

#170

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Russell and Nasdaq are up a half of a percent after being basically straight down for a month. Your read on fundementals never ceases to amaze, what an enormous Christmas gift to longs lmao. Williams sounds exactly like Powell, not sure why you think this is relevant other than being results oriented on the small pop intraday.

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12-21-2018 , 12:02 PM

#171

ToothSayer

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Russell and Nasdaq? lol? Dumb analysis. No, what Williams said is very different to Powell, particularly with regards to the markets and stepping in. It's a huge gift to the longs

What happens depends on how much inertia there is. Clearly a lot of pre-decided selling on momos today. But Wiliam's claims of "listening to the market" + the promise of helicopter money + the pumping of US economic strength + few rate raises + the willingness to change rates on a bad market are very new signals and a big pump by the fed. If it doesn't take, as I said, this is truly a bear market.

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12-26-2018 , 08:54 AM

#172

ToothSayer

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Yet more data confirming US economic strength:

Quote:

U.S. holiday retail sales rose 5.1% from a year earlier according to Mastercard, the highest level in six years

This is during a correction no less, when people with money in stocks are losing substantial wealth.

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12-26-2018 , 10:04 AM

#173

CandyKreep

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Yet more data confirming US economic strength:

This is during a correction no less, when people with money in stocks are losing substantial wealth.

Chances it has any positive affect on the market this week or next? Kinda seems like a single bucket of water being thrown on a house fire.

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12-26-2018 , 10:29 AM

#174

ToothSayer

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Amazon very strong sales. House prices strong in CoreLogic's 20 city index. Every sign points to a robust US economy

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12-26-2018 , 10:49 AM

#175

ToothSayer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by CandyKreep

Chances it has any positive affect on the market this week or next? Kinda seems like a single bucket of water being thrown on a house fire.

It's pretty positive. The US economy has shown zero sign of weakness which will get the dip buyers in. I agree with the house fire analogy, the fire has more power than the water, but at this point we're down around 20% with a VIX of 35 and a lot of shorts to unwind.

The proper way to view this with regard to trading is that one should become more cautious on a short and happier to cover it. It's pretty hard to continue a big bear market with a robust economy unless something like a 2008 liquidity crisis is ongoing.

Positive economic data also means earnings is likely to be quite good, which will put a January bid under the market.

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