There's always so much new info every day about all sorts of stuff - and half the time it can sound the same as other stuff ... have been trying to find some sort of system for trying to keep track of all the big ticket info, but it's still sort of a work in progress

Guess this thread is helping Just did a little search, and this article kind of makes it seem like it must have been new? It was saying that all the members of Congress' jaws dropped when Trump named a price for the new bill, because it was much larger than they were expecting, or something?

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...ructure-380144




Something like that must have happened, because the gains today were rather underwhelming!

Will have to try and remember to keep an eye out for updates on any progress on any possible infrastructure bill, although it sounds like chances of anything passing aren't so great. Those are great ideas for what to pick up if something does wind up happening Jupiter - CAT seems to be doing quite well lately

Looks like the bond bear fears, which were extremely profitable for many of us, is diminished for now. Bonds have been strong since Wednesday's fed report, and the lack of any downside on Friday helped push the market higher. Morgan Stanley is calling a bottom today.
Worth watching as it will likely be what moves the market and volatility again, but it's in the background for now.

Every day my confidence in my own ability to understand economics goes down. I've got a mortal lock on the trucking market, but I've been expecting the market to tank for like 2.5 years now. Nothing seems to dent it. It's like nobody is worried about anything bad happening in the future at any point. I sincerely don't get it.

In what way are you expecting the trucking market to tank?

I haven't seen anything from trucking reports that would indicate that we're going to tank.
For example:

https://ftrintel.com/blog/economy-ne...ars-will-good/

im still short bonds

Maybe this thread is appropriate for this question: Trump can really just raise tariffs? It seems like it would have to pass through congress and would move at the glacial pace through the shifting valleys of subcommittees and whatnot. The notion of a 'sudden tariff hike' as has been purported in the press is at odds with what I'd expect from our unwieldy governmental apparatus. But so the president can just sign off on some order one of his appointed cabinet heads drew up and suddenly there's a 25% tariff on foreign steel?

It's kind of surprising but yeah, he can. This is a pretty good high level explanation:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/23/news...wer/index.html

IMO this is yet another example of the executive branch having way too much power.

Ah found it. Subbed.

Brought here from the trading thread...part of the reason for initially creating this thread was to keep this discussion out of the trading thread. Politics is the main thing driving the market right now, so it's the most important thing to discuss for trading/investing at the moment. That's fairly unusual.

rafiki: I'm not expert on the Middle East, but I find your "war in the Middle East" view very very thin. I think it's really unlikely. Would need a more detailed thesis.

Meanwhile, news today that Trump is indeed serious about bringing China's cheating to heel spooked the markets this afternoon, after already being slightly unsettled by Tillerson's sudden departure.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...tariffs-460416

It was first reported in Nikkei which is what stymied the recovery attempt after Tillerson; sell volume picked up immediately. Rate fears, inflation fear, trade war fears are all that drive the market since the end of January. Most of the mass of individual stocks are just reeds in the wind right now.

Tooth I think the entire thesis is based on the return to power of an Iran post Saddam. While Saddam was around and Iran and Iraq existed with that dynamic, neither of them could really break out. But Iran now is essentially unchallenged regionally. So much like Trump with China, how much more powerful do you want to let Iran get before you deal with something you will undoubtedly have to face one day or the other (for sure if you are Israel, and therefor most likely with help if you time this now before another democratic president). For Israel these next 2-3 years are their best window to help themselves.

I'm just not seeing it. How to make money from your view without losing your shirt if you're wrong? Long oil?

More likely scenario is that Trump builds an economic sanctions coalition like he did against Qatar (with the Saudis, Egyptians, Jordanians) and North Korea (with China(!), Japan).

What the media won't report is that North Korea is essentially capitulating to all of Trump's demands due to the severity of the economic sanctions coalition, which would've caused North Korea to run out of foreign currency within the year, even though it's painfully obvious to people that are paying attention to the trade deals and sanctions being made.

I expect Trump to do similar to Iran now that Tillerson is out.

Yeah that's viable. Israel did have a hope for Iran to implode based on the misery of its own citizens. And we did see that unrest a few months back. Really strong economic sanctions and some sort of sponsored coup is out of the playbook too.

FOMC federal funds rate announcement in a few hours. The expectation is a hike of 25 basis points.

WE CAN HAZ TRADE WAR!!!111!

https://seekingalpha.com/news/334406...utures-decline

But Kudlow said...

Today is one of those days where I wish I traded options in the 6 figures. Soon as China thumbed their nose at Trump the setup was perfect. There was just no way he was going to do anything but this.

Boeing went on a silly squeeze yesterday and today. It's sitting at $325 after running up from $312 yesterday morning to $337 at close today. The $325 puts were 16c at close. If the pullback holds you'll be a 10 bagger at least at open. If it goes merely back to yesterday morning on this latest escalation, that's a 100 bagger.

These are the kinds of long odds bets we should be making if we're going to bet on trade events.

Thank God for fake news, which has totally misunderstood Trump and totally misunderstood and misreported the entire situation.

USTR Lighthizer agrees with Trump:

https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-off...izer-statement

Tomorrow is going to be a very fun day.

Talk is cheap. Tell us what your book is.

But even that part is predictable!

Tooth I have no idea if this is fake news, but there's a lot of little things in the news cycle starting to catch my eye. From Trump to Russia to Syria things look real interesting right now. Market don't care though.

Food for thought.

If you can get 2.22% on short term yields, why hold stocks when things get rough? If you can get 3% on longer yields, why hold average 2.5% dividends long term with substantial risk given high multiples?

Vol be higher with rates looking like this as the flight to bonds becomes an attractive option that it hasn't been for 9 years.

You've seen this play out in the rate sensitive areas especially the staples which was/is their sole appeal at this point. I've been bearish on this group for a while, managers pile(d) in because they think a stable, juicy dividend and no other options in terms of yield made it a no brainer. Now not only are they faced with alternatives in terms of yield but the fundamentals (consumers shifting away from canned/packaged goods, low margins, increasing competition from e-retailers etc) of the sector are awful.