Lol @ kitko news, didn't know it existed. Its like zac and jesse for metals.

Anyone selling gold has said the same things for decades.

Anyone looking to trade the Fed announcement today?

The speaker presents the case that it is easiest to get rich in countries with a massive social structure. Most of his argument revolves around the single data point that, excluding tax havens, countries with the highest "ultra high net worth individuals," defined as +$30mln, have high taxes, strong unions, and a general welfare state. Norway tops the list, and the other top 5 include Canada and Denmark. The US ranks 13th.

I haven't found any critical reviews of his arguments, but it seems to lack important data, such as in which countries the UHNWI's amassed their wealth. Curious to hear BFI's thoughts.

Need to define "get rich"

Bump, would love to hear theories outside of "an insurance cut" and "this is what the market expects"... Personally I think it's a no brainer to pause here and don't understand what this does to prevent a Recession or help the "real" economy. One less cut you can make when there is an actual crisis in the future.

If the NYFed/ATL Fed GDPNow report is close to accurate and that continues for another few quarters, won't it be impossible for the fed to keep it to only 1 race cut next year?

Today's estimate was .3-4%

What if the prevailing wisdom has been wrong? What if raising as an economy heats up actually causes it to crash? What if banks have quietly decided that the cushion created for the recession actually creates the recession? All of the world's banks are acting as if that is true, even if they're not saying it.

We live in an "aversion to any pain" world now (example: wax my female balls), hard decisions for better times in the future are gone as a principles. 70s years of peace of prosperity will do that a society. I think ultimately that mindset is what is driving policy and will continue to drive it; already Europe is talking about going more and more negative on rates lest they should have to take their medicine for bad economic decisions and policies.

The "cushion" of raising rates is the exact same thing as applying the brakes.

It seems unlikely that 0.25% changes to overnight rates will do much of anything either way to the actual economy. It is more like glancing at the brakes or accelerator pedal than pressing them.

It seems far more likely that normal business cycles are happening and all the world's banks are acting like they always do in response. Some sectors have done a little too well and will contract exactly like they always do after expanding too quickly.

Misleading use of "now." Nothing meaningfully new at all.

"Now" is always the scariest time ever. It always has been.

Was looking for a LC thread in BFI and this seems to be it. Do you think Carlos Ghosn deserves special treatment because he thinks the law is unfair in Japan? I was shocked 'not shocked' CNBC took the time to explain and sympathize with him regarding his situation.

Highlights many issues but curious what other BFI frequenters think about the situation.

Carlos dropping bombs out there....

Maybe being worked by a world class CEO but loving the speech so far and seems to be speaking to larger world issues as well.

I think this is the thread for this, if it isn't then whoops...

When does the market begin to price in Bernie's chances to be the President? He has surged from like 15 to 35 cents on predictit over the last few months. I'd assume if he can win both NH and IA that it will have to begin to be priced into the equation.

I still think Biden probably wins but they're now basically tied in the markets.

Trump has gone from ~45% to ~53% to win in that same time period on Pinny. I'd imagine this matters more

Cuck Bernie has no chance against alpha male Trump (not insults, pure descriptions). He's more ripe for lampooning than Low Energy Jeb. The stock market should price in zero chance that Bernie will win.

IF he could win the dem nomination and pulled ahead in Trump vs Bernie polls AND he doesn't die of old age in the next 6 months, the market would start pricing in his win by crashing. In general I think the market will view anyone non-Trump very negatively; Trump is enormously pro-business and anti-regulation which has meant an economic boom and small business confidence.

There's hard proof of this: here's small business confidence when Trump was elected. It soared over pre-GFC levels for the first time since the GFC, after languishing for a decade. It has stayed elevated as well.



There are a lot of data that small business confidence translates into jobs, investment, economic growth and wage growth. Hate Trump all you want (like a crazy person) but he's responsible for a good part if not all of the economic boom we've had since he was elected, and the stock market run. I think the market sees it that way too.

What about sleepy Joe? Imo he beats Trump if he wins the nomination.

The only way Biden beats Trump is if the Fed goes out of their way to yank liquidity and crash the stock market leading into November. Even then, maybe it's a coin flip.

I don't think Trump could fade a recession/economic calamity/black swan. Not many can in modern times where it is a battle between the 45 yard lines so to speak. However, given the election is now only 10 months away, I don't think he'll have to.

Global debt is at $253 Trillion for Q3 2019 (and rising). Global Debt to GDP ratio is the highest in history. It will be interesting to see how much debt we can take on before something bad happens.

It will be interesting to see what Global Debt to GDP looks like in a year.

Debt is just a human story, albeit a powerful one.

Anyone have prognostications for the geopolitical outcomes of this? Clearly China and Russia are coming out ahead of this ready to hit the ground running while western countries are going to be busy figuring out what to do with volume of corpses they have to bury.

Could this be the collapse of the petrodollar system? I can't think of a better time for russia/china to execute this in the coming months.

They need to export half their gdp and the rest of the world is not looking so good. Not sure how they are coming out ahead from this. They are probably in the worst shape.

The virus could also start spreading again in China given they relaxed the lock downs and rest of the world is catching it more and more.

Yep, China depends on the US and Europe. They are in deep ****. Russia is getting hammered by $22/barrel oil prices. Oil and Natural Gas account for 70% of Russia's exports.

RIP Kenny

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2RKmVqnNdw

How is poor Russia (esp with the oil war) coming out of this ahead?

Tomorrow figures to be the worst NFP report on record. Forecast I'm seeing says -20 million jobs for April. Where do you think the real number comes in at and at what point above or below the forecast does the market react?