This is a good summary of some major economic indicators weakening.

Market Seems Unaffected By Weaker Economic Data

The market believes the fed will keep backstopping it so it hasn't reacted much, but ultimately even fed pumping can't survive negative growth on earnings.

The NFP just missed about as bad as I can ever recall it missing. 180K forecast, 20K actual.

Yikes.

I've heard that the likelihood of the Fed signaling a rate cut today is +70%. Truth or fiction? If truth, do you believe this development to be priced in to the market?

Something like 25% chance of cut baked into futures from what I read. It's like 85% chance of July cut right now

July has moved to 100% w/ a 33% chance of .5% cut.

Seems like we're on a trajectory back to ZIRP by late 2020/early 2021, QE4?

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...n-to-fomc.html

Interesting bond sale results just now

"Disastrous" 30 Year Auction: Foreigners Flee As Bid To Cover Plummets

Bonds went a little nuts and it's weighing on SPY. Stuff like this at all time highs is what started the last three corrections as risk got spooked. Just a heads up. This isn't as big a deal as other bond events that started the other corrections near highs, but it's an interesting spot worth being aware of.

Interesting article, but probably insubstantial after the day's close. What's weighing in on the makets in the medium term is obviously the Fed, trade war and upcoming earnings.

Bond moves can be interesting triggers (and were last year in a huge way; the bond market flows and shocks predicted stocks), but I agree with you and think this is a one-off for now. I'll be watching the next auction very closely though, a repeat of this will be impactful.

Want to get a discussion going here and I have my own thoughts on this I'll get to. Please try to keep political opinions out of it. A question that should be on every investor's/trader's mind short term and into the future...

Why is the Fed cutting interest rates this week?

Seems like a reaction to the global economy, though, the rumblings are that our economy isn't nearly as strong as market ATH would lead people to believe.

Personally, I get the sense that things aren't reacting in expected ways and they are trying to get ahead of what should be a big correction.

You're not going to like this answer but I think Trump realizes his re election odds rest heavily on the stock market and his rhetoric is pointing towards it's performance. I think he has influenced the fed to cooperate with his agenda. Perhaps his influence is over stated but I think it's definitely a factor

On top of that, this market is now owned by the fed. If this thing tanks, they fed will have everyone pointing towards their policy and actions creating the situation. I think that reaction is fair. The fed has blown a bubble and they are terrified of how badly it could turn out and they know they'd be held accountable. I think the fed is hanging on for dear life just praying whenever things correct that its a soft landing and not a meltdown and massive global economic rescission.

The fed is reacting to market moves with their commentary. They seem to be extremely focused on stock prices and are using policy rhetoric to calm the market on any down moves. When the children got scared the fed came in and reversed course. The market has rallied hard now that it seems to be backed by the fed. I think the fed knows they are driving this market and are just trying to keep the balls in the air

Things are usually as they seem. If the Fed cuts it is pretty much for the reasons they say they cut.

To keep the party going as long as possible because when the music stops it’s gonna be a real gnarly ending.

Thanks again.

It will be an ending of such monumental importance as to not quite make it in as a footnote in the most detailed history books of the future.

There will be lots of headlines though. Some of the headlines will even have exclamation points.

You going through a divorce Brian? Your posts are so cynical they even make me feel bad.

Because the market has been expecting it. Doing anything else will create havoc.

Not sure how the equivalent of "there isn't going to be a crash of historical proportions" and "the Fed probably doesn't have significant alterior motives" is cynical.

I did catch a bad cold recently. It was unpleasant.

I was never any good at poker. Glad you're doing fine though

100% chance of rate cut expected in September, chance of 50 bps jumped from 9.5% to 37.5% today.

Historians/economists are going to have a fun job explaining this period we're living in, truly unprecedented what's happening from governments/central banks.

We have had a lot of unprecedented central bank events since the early 1980s. On and off, of course.

They are going to run out of unprecedented events soon, and then all the new events will be precedented. That will be nice.

NSFW:

Econ basics

How much of this is total fluff? I don't know this guy, but he reminds me of a financial Dick Vitale

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aySa...yBZbeobV5kfp6Q

Seems like half of what he says I can get behind and half is sort of absurd gold bug doomsday stuff. Be nice to know where the middle ground is.

You watch Kitco YouTube videos?!?

The middle ground is somewhere between perpetual 10% real growth and whatever this guy said.

I don't think 2k gold is out of the question, though I'm shooting for 1750 in the next ~9 months. People don't get airtime for being reasonable though.

I always thought there would be some bigger repercussions to the bailout, and maybe that is still coming, or maybe they got really good at hiding it in the margins. The point is, I'm not so sure that any of it matters. If the economic apocalypse happens then it is probably because the "powers that be" decided that was what they wanted.