Tooth, this will take you a long way:

Yeah man, I'd be going the only route left too if I got owned so badly on the analysis, selectively quoting short term trades (I killed 3400->2200-> 2500 and I've been mostly long since 2770), and going with this:



Not even your prole buddies would support you on that one. But it's your only out at this point after the self-owning you just did.

I've been reading BFI and 2p2 for a very long time so I thought I would drop my $0.02. Feel free to move past.

I think Tooth is the best poster in BFI. For the record, I often disagree with his points and I also think the Brian bet and comments like "too busy ****ing in a jacuzzi to make millions" make him look silly. But he has a crisp and humorous writing style that is of much higher quality than nearly every poster on this forum (and the internet) and he is a great catalyst for conversation.

A lot of the issues at hand — S&P price targets, Tesla's success, Bitcoin's future — are enormously complex and having someone who isn't afraid to assert or attack ideas is really good for the conversation. This forum isn't a support group or anything. I think Tooth does a great job of cutting through a sea of hazy analysis and backward looking brags.

It's obvious he is a very divisive poster, but to be frank: If you're so offended by an internet poster who uses bad words that you freak out and lead a tirade against him, you probably need to re-evaluate your goals in life and how you plan to achieve them. There are plenty of posts where Tooth comes across poorly, but there's also plenty of times where he drives fruitful discussion on interesting topics for hundreds and hundreds of posts.

Grim: The posters whose testimonies you are using as proof that Tooth sucks are mostly self-proclaimed losers or have palpable personality disorders. Not a sterling jury. I do like your posts and I hope you and Tooth can squash the beef.

A lot of TS's assertions are demonstrably wrong on factual and it's extremely frustrating to knowledgeable posters who try to correct him so he doesn't mislead people who are less informed.

That grim's posts include quotes from a lot of posters who trade professionally at pretty high levels should ring alarm bells. People with pretty varied professional real-world trading experience are basically unanimous in saying TS has no clue what he is talking about.

That's hilarious coming from the guy who wrong on literally everything he posts, and pissed at me because I've repeatedly pointed that out for years and corrected dozens of things you've posted.

What am I "demonstrably wrong on factual (sic)" about? I can certainly be wrong about opinions or trades but I'm rarely wrong on factual things, way less than any of my detractors and I'd bet I crush anyone on this forum on being factually correct. The only thing I can remember being factually wrong on was the timing of an event I discussed with Clayton a year ago. I go to pains to be correct on facts.

Meanwhile you're literally the most wrong person on factual items on this forum...calling out the most factually correct person on this forum. Amazing stuff man. Work on yourself?
Um, who are these people who trade professionally at high levels? This is you being literally wrong about everything you post again. I see dumb young retails, obsessives like ASAP17, you, Clayton who posts memes and got conned by CYDY. Who are these "lot of" "unanimous" posters who "trade professionally at high levels" who say I have no clue? Name 3.

Meanwhile I have thank you posts and multiple PMs from actual professional traders and very well regarded HSNL players for whom my analysis has made them a fortune.

Your grand tradition of being wrong about everything continues, friend.

Tooth is perfect example of a teenage keyboard warrior. He tucks his tail between his legs and runs away whenever people ask him to support his results.

Tooth, what's the rent like in Eastern Europe? Can you show us 50%+ average returns or +$100k average annual PNL over 2017-2019 (fwiw 100k is not a high salary in coastal CA)? You trade for yourself full time and belittle people with "real" jobs/careers. I just want to know how much I'm missing out on for not having the skills you do

Thought this was a pretty balanced and thoughtful view. Well said.

I personally like most of TS's posts and analysis even though I disagree with his views on Trump.

Don't ban TS. The only reason I come lurk on BFI is to inverse him.

What I find peculiar is that MAYBE, if you rounded up, 1% of my posts this year in this forum are about TS. How many of your posts are about TS??? 75%? Am I being too conservative?




"making money"

BTW these basically doubled from here and then I "gave half back"

I literally don't give one single **** if TS trades, doesn't trade, lives in his parents basement, whatever. Until you post one ****ing idea that can make one single person money I will continue to point out how ****ing terrible your posts are

LOL. Bear makes money in a crash, cool story bro. Try a little harder to impress me, like showing the whole story (2017-today PNLs). I'll respect that.

Selective memory for a struggling bear? Here's just 1 summary post:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...postcount=5901

Meanwhile, the entire thread is stuck on level-1 thinking of "we're shutdown, why is the market rallying?!" "Great Depression / GFC!"

You're turn. When have YOU contributed anything meaningful to BFI?

Yeah I don't understand this hostility against grim, especially accusations of him not being helpful. If people are going to be result-oriented like they've been for others, grim's been more right than anyone else I've seen here on the broader market directionality since the lows. If you listened to him and stayed in the market, you'd better off now than if you listened to some others here and stayed out or went short. Kudos to grim for being bold and at least so far, being generally right.

He tards up numerous threads with his obsession and has zero insight. He's so functionally ******ed that most of his criticisms aren't even real - they're just an outpouring of obsession + low verbal reasoning skills. He can't follow conversations and understand the reasoning like most people can, and then makes insane attacks emanating from hsi low IQ. Read the oil thread for example, where people ask about getting long, I say it's a bad idea and I'm not getting long until oil goes negative, and explain why, it plays out exactly like I thought for the reasons I thought, and grim goes batshit insane when someone thanks me, claiming I didn't call negative oil at all. This goes on for pages as people call him crazy and are embarrassed for him and tell him to STFU. The dude is straight up gone in the head, which more than overwhelms his small value.

His only real value is as a dumb retail permabull - he's great for getting a handle on what they're thinking, and stubborn about it too so you can get some conversation going. It's just a shame he's so weirdly obsessed. I think he's insecure.
I've been far more right than grim, and had far better returns on posted positioning, since this all began.
If you listened to him and stayed in the market, you'd be -10% right now. He was a bull before corona, a bull as corona crashed the market (who saw US lockdowns coming??? he screams even now, that's the level of intelligence we're dealing with), and a bull as the market recovered. I'll let grimReaper explain it to you, actually, by changing three words:

I'm only going by what I've observed here. Grim's been generally more bullish since the lows than anyone and he's been right so far. I didn't see your Coronavirus call and I didn't see grim being bullish before the crash - I've only seen you being bearish in the past few months. You can dig up your correct calls from the past, and other people can try to dig up your incorrect calls from the past but I'm generally going to ignore anything that has an obvious selection bias.

So far I've only observed three general calls from you:

1) Bearish on TSLA, it's a fraud, it's going to 0, etc - so far not looking great
2) Bearish on NFLX, it's going to get killed once Disney launches - so far not looking great
3) Bearish on the overall market, the market's going down 50%-70% - so far not looking great.

Again, this is just my observation and I'm not arguing that this is representative, but I don't have time to research your entire history here, nor time to indulge all these people trying to find all the things they've been right about and find all the things other people have been wrong about. I also don't really evaluate people based on whether they were right on the broader directionality, since, after a while, you're going to be right sometimes and you're going to be wrong sometimes. You don't evaluate analysts based on some weighted-average correctness, but based on the extent to which the analysis is able to elucidate the underlying truths. On that basis, I think your TSLA stuff was ok, the rest was pretty bad. My bit about grim is that from my perspective, and using the "I got it right" criteria, he's been more right than anyone else lately.

For someone who 'doesn't have time to post' and who doesn't even trade, you sure post a lot.

Everyone knew the market was going to rip on stimulus. You'd have to be functionally ******ed not to think that. People love to misrepresent posts despite the relative ease of tearing down those misrepresentations and you're a shining example. Tooth called lows of 50-70% before stimulus, and the market nearly reached the upper bound of his call when stimulus was passed. Without stimulus it certainly would have dropped below -50%.

The market is based upon real G&S production. It has ripped because gaping holes in balance sheets have been temporarily filled by printed money. If/when the economy is sluggish in coming back, the market will tank again because stimulus has caused over-bullish sentiment in production/consumption recovery.

If that assumption is wrong, which you seem to claim, and market prices continue to rise despite massive losses in production/consumption and efficiency, we've moved into a new era of the market=price speculation and there is effectively no real investing anymore.

Actually I called the stimulus rip mutiple times, said it was the only thing that would rip the market (fiscal stimulus), and that the market would calm, buy up, and wait for reopening on fiscal stimulus was passed. It played out exactly as predicted. The other thing grim has on me on the long side is 2500ish to 2770, I've been bullish the rest. Meanwhile I crushed him on the short for +30% on the index and +1000% on the puts, called right before the dive. Guy is a clown.

That's not what I'm referring to, I'm talking about him reiterating support for this thesis on 5/2/2020, which is when I entered this conversation. S&P 500 was at around 2830, it's at 3193 now. As I said before, I don't cherry-pick random calls from the past, I'm only addressing things that I read on my own, not as a result of someone digging up dirt on others.

I didn't engage in any market-related conversation until this and I wrote at the time that it's unreasonable to expect 50%+ drops because past recessions led to 50+% drops and this recession will be more severe. You and Tooth argued vehemently against this. Again, you guys like being result-oriented, so I'm just going by the result. It looks wrong so far. If your point is that this may eventually turn out to be right, sure I concede that any price projection may eventually turn out right. And you could say that about anything. By this reasoning, COVID-19 bulls weren't wrong either. S&P 500 is down what, 2% for the year? And if you were bullish before the 2008 crash, that worked out eventually right?

And aside from the timeline being wrong, this whole stimulus ruined my projection angle is quite disingenuous because one of my major points was that early stimulus is extremely important for the market, and it distinguished this recession from many others. You and Tooth were downplaying the importance of the stimulus - I was the one saying policy actions controlling liquidity can make or break capital markets.

Also, I'm not sure this is correct at all. Maybe there were earlier calls but as far as I can tell, this was the original call people referred to and it's from 4/3:

The CARES Act was signed into law on 3/27.

Edit:

Looks like S&P 500 was around 2490 vs 3193 now.

You don't honestly mean this one, do you?

All he is doing here is (correctly) stating that this economic shock is the worst one since 1929, and that it is uncertain whether or not stimulus will result in real economic recovery by temporarily plugging balance sheets. He makes zero claims in this post that tie to his pre-stimulus predictions.

You have a serious issue with reading comprehension that you need to address. You also consistently mischaracterize posts and then paint over the chips will bullshit before calling it a repair. Stop doing that.

No, I think you do. The context is quite clear - he's saying that historically, stock market drops in recessions were larger than 30% generally in the 50+% range. So the crash we saw ~30% off ATH, likely doesn't represent the worst we're going to see in this market (remember was grim's contention) and we should expect the market bottom to be substantially below the earlier lows. I mean he's been consistent about this the entire time - what changed since 4/3? And isn't this your view too? The entire time I was saying that there's no historical basis to assume that going well below the earlier lows would be the expected outcome and Tooth and you kept going on about how I'm wrong. Also, didn't Tooth say multiple times his calls weren't wrong because the year isn't over? Also, it looks like you conveniently ignored that even the original call came after the stimulus, rendering your entire point moot.

No, he literally admits the possibility that the govt. and the Fed could make the difference:

I admit this as well. There is a non-zero chance that the temporary economic loss is efficiently offset by the injection of printed money. I don't think it's likely, however.

There is a massive difference between a short-term stimulated stock market and a medium-term stimulated economy that is reflected by stable stock prices.
It's amazing that you don't get this, but you really don't get it.

Of course prices went back up when stimulus happened. Tooth's 50-70% decline went from a lock to somewhat uncertain at that point, which is what he is admitting. What is now in question is whether or not that stimulus will lead to real economic recovery and the stabilization of stock prices in the medium term. If real economic recovery is not happening, or is sluggish, then we are in a recession-depression and stock prices will likely fall again. They are likely to fall farther than other recessions, because the economic shock of corona has been far worse than at other times when stock prices fell more than they have now.

As I said before, if we are at the point where stock prices do not reflect the underlying economy (in the medium-long term), then there is no further point in considering putting money into the stock market at all because it has become pure price speculation, across all terms.

You seemed to have missed the part where the 40%-70% call came after the stimulus. Also, we've been talking about this the entire time in the post-stimulus world. I kept saying, there's uncertainty, but it's on both sides, some things are bad, but there are all kinds of compensating factors such as household balance sheet, while you were going on about how badness must affect everything and soon we'll see this in earnings and stock market prices and everything is super overvalued as a result and you're staying in all cash. Again, I'm not result-oriented so I don't really care that this is how it turned out - I care that you guys have no insight to offer on this matter - but a bunch of people are result-oriented, right? But if you listened to yourself and Tooth, would you have done as well as someone listening to grim? No, of course not.

So you're calling for a 50%+ drop. Pretty sure you already said the stimulus isn't going to to do much for the real economy, so we should expect a 50% drop right?

Yep, there you go again with your internal balance bullshit.

Candy: When something bad happens to one person, that means an equally good thing happened to someone else.
Everyone else: What about overall economic growth or loss that results in a bigger/smaller pie for everyone?
Candy: doesn't matter---risk premium

I've increasingly chosen not to engage with you because you have no practical clue how businesses operate or how wealth generation (or loss) occurs in the real world. Accordingly, there is zero chance you work in any meaningful way in business. If you do, you are the laughing stock of the office.

As far as being results-oriented, I am in cash precisely because I'm not results-oriented. The fact that someone makes money on price-speculation means less than nothing to me because I am an investor, not a price-speculator.

In the short-term (next 0.5-1.5 quarters), ceteris paribus, the stock market will almost certainly continue to climb. In the medium term (1.5-4 quarters) it is highly likely that the real economic loss that has happened will be reflected by far lower stock prices. However, it's not impossible that the recovery is V-shaped due to stimulus. In the long term, market cap will approach GDP (and vice-versa). If it does not, the stock market and by extension our investment economy is basically over.

We're definitely in very different worlds for sure and likely work at very different scale.

This is the definition of speculation. Cash should be part of a diversified passive portfolio, but if you're disproportionately in cash for reasons that have to do with your views on valuation you're speculating - you're deviating from what would otherwise be a normal passive portfolio.

Why? I thought you were saying the market was in hyper bubble territory? Even before the recent rally? Why wouldn't that weigh on the market?

So, not only do you know the market will go down, you know when it will go down? Why aren't you positioned accordingly? All cash seems silly when you know when the market will go up and when it will go down.

You've been arguing strenuously against this possibility. Under what scenarios would the real economy recover be V-shaped? And what do you mean by a V-shaped recovery?

You're effectively saying you're right no matter what happens?

I think leading up to the lows to tooth nailed it, especially mid February already understanding and convincing most of the corona virus thread the effects of it. I stayed out of the market

Before the lows were reached grim nailed it saying the increasing death count wouldn’t move the markets anymore when most the forum was predicting the bottom would hit when deaths peaked in nyc and scenes of grand parents dying in the hallways would take place

Candy + grim analysis afterwards seem way better of everything going on