Quote:
Originally Posted by Pappi
asking: ~$400,000
gross rent: $54,000
down payment: 20%
my estimates
Utilities: $9,600
Taxes & Ins: $6,000
Repairs: $5,400
Vacancy savings: $2,400
Mortgage at PP of 400K: $18,000
Mortgage at PP of 310K: $14,000
The important numbers when evaluating an income producing property are the Net Operating Income (NOI), the purchase price and your monthly mortgage payment -- using these three numbers, you can determine the "cap rate" of the deal and your actual cash-flow from the deal. While there are a lot of other financial factors, there are generally the most important to the majority of investors.
NOI is the amount of cash you have left over after you collect all rents and pay all bills, other than the mortgage. These "bills" include things like taxes, insurance, vacancy, capital expenses, rent loss due to non-payers, maintenance, property management (if you use it), etc. Most people underestimate NOI because they forget that they'll have expenses like replacing a roof and HVAC system every 20 years -- while that may be a long-term expense, keep in mind that part of every rent check theoretically will be used every 20 or so years to cover these expenses.
A good rule of thumb is that all these expenses will -- in the long term -- equal about half of your gross income. So, if you're generating $54K per year in gross rents, to be safe you should assume that $27K of that is going to all these expenses and lost income over the long-term. So, in your example, NOI is about $27K per year.
Cap rate is basically the ROI your property is generating assuming you don't have a mortgage (assuming you paid all cash for the property). While you may not have any plan to buy a property all-cash, the value of this ROI number is that any two investors can use it to compare the same property, regardless of how each of them may finance it.
Cap Rate = NOI / Purchase Price
In your case, if you paid full price, the cap rate would be:
$27,000 / $400,000 = 6.75%
At your $310,000 purchase price scenario, the cap rate would be:
$27,000 / $310,000 = 8.7%
So, if you paid all cash, your returns would be somewhere in the 7-9% range at these purchase prices. While every location and every property has it's own cap rate, generally I like to see cap rates around 10-12% these days, except for properties in great locations and/or great condition -- those will have lower ROI, but there are the obvious benefits of location and condition that improve the resale value.
Now, the last piece of the puzzle is how much you'll actually be earning given your financing strategy. In this case, you say you'll be putting 20% down and paying either $18,000 or $14,000 per year in mortgage (your numbers above). So, assuming an NOI of $27,000, your actually cash flow and cash-on-cash return numbers for this deal would be:
$400K Purchase:
Since you're earning $27K per year and spending $18,000 on mortgage per year, you'll be earning about $9000 per year on the deal at these numbers. Your ROI (cash on cash return) would be your cash flow divided by your investment (down payment):
COCR = $9000 / $80,000 = 11.25%
$310K Purchase:
Since you're earning $27K per year and spending $14,000 on mortgage per year, you'll be earning about $13,000 per year on the deal at these numbers. With your $62,000 investment, your cash on cash return is:
COCR = $13,000 / $62,000 = 21%
That last number is very decent, but here's my concern:
In order to get a mortgage payment of $14,000 per year on a $310,000 purchase and 20% down, you'll need to get a loan of about 4% over 30 years. I don't know of any institutional lenders offering this type of loan these days. Is the money coming from the seller in terms of seller financing? If so, that's the best part of this deal, and may be a reason to do it. With conventional financing terms (about 6.5% over 20 years is what you'll find these days), the numbers above don't work out at all, and I'll highly recommend avoiding this deal.
Btw, the other variable that was neglected here was the gross rents. If these rent numbers are on the low side or the high side (due to mismanagement by the current owner or weird lease terms), all the numbers above could change.