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Old 11-21-2011, 12:57 AM   #76
sc000t
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Re: Apple discussion thread

There is a TON of value to be had in AAPL entering the TV business.

That industry desperately needs a makeover and AAPL with iTunes is in prime position to capitalize on it.

APPLs biggest threat is GOOG and Android right now. APPL is getting to market first with iPhone, iOS, iPad, iTunes and Apple TV but Google is right behind them with Android phones and tablets and Google Music and TV. And as you can see with the success of Android...they are eating market share that literally all would have been Apples. Time will tell if this success will transfer to tablets, music and television but if the smartphone market is an indication...this is my primary concern as an AAPL investor.
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Old 11-21-2011, 08:59 PM   #77
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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Originally Posted by meekrab View Post
The two scenarios aren't at all comparable. Sony's peak valuation was massively inflated by the .com bubble while their revenue and profits were already tanking in the two years before the stock market crash. Plus, the company is full of idiots.

AAPL is selling luxury goods in a semi-recession and somehow making money hand over fist.
Your full of idiots thing was clever

Quote:
Originally Posted by sc000t View Post
There is a TON of value to be had in AAPL entering the TV business.

That industry desperately needs a makeover and AAPL with iTunes is in prime position to capitalize on it.
I hope that they can make it profitable...

Quote:
APPLs biggest threat is GOOG and Android right now. APPL is getting to market first with iPhone, iOS, iPad, iTunes and Apple TV but Google is right behind them with Android phones and tablets and Google Music and TV. And as you can see with the success of Android...they are eating market share that literally all would have been Apples. Time will tell if this success will transfer to tablets, music and television but if the smartphone market is an indication...this is my primary concern as an AAPL investor.
Any time you have excellent margins, competitors take notice. I think you also have to worry about the brand, since it is difficult to maintain best brand status. They've had a few small missteps (battery life and issue with lost calls if you don't hold the product correctly) that haven't amounted to any real loss of respect, but brand fans can be fickle.
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Old 11-22-2011, 02:50 AM   #78
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Re: Apple discussion thread

the fact they can't work something out with facebook is really annoying
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Old 11-22-2011, 08:38 AM   #79
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Re: Apple discussion thread

aapl caught lg/samsung flat-footed in cell phones wth the iphone.

they have since fought back with the Androids and are having "sucess"

TV will be tougher.

It is a longer cycle replacement than phones... i don't have hard numbers, but TV's aren't replaced as fast as music players or phones.

LG/samsung/android will be quicker to respond to whatever aapl does.

That doesn't mean aapl can't or won't have success- I just think the easy days aapl had running over the industry will not be there in tv....

I know the stock looks cheap- but usually with growth stocks- you want to buy them when they look expensive and sell them when more expensive...

The loss of Jobs can't be overlooked either.

Just my opinion and when I voiced it in the October thread it was received very well...
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Old 11-23-2011, 10:19 PM   #80
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Re: Apple discussion thread

Do you really see growth slowing enough to justify a forward P/E of less than 10? Someone convince me Apple isn't a massive buy here at its lowest valuation in basically forever.
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Old 11-23-2011, 10:54 PM   #81
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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Do you really see growth slowing enough to justify a forward P/E of less than 10? Someone convince me Apple isn't a massive buy here at its lowest valuation in basically forever.
Forward p/e hasn't happened yet and is completely useless to look at. Current p/e is decent, but their p/s and p/b are very very high. Margins are very very excellent, which makes them scary, because very good margins tend to drop over time. They do have cash out the wazzoo though, which is nice.

The basic problem is that cutting edge products have a very short business cycle. No one is going to be buying their current products next year. If they maintain leader status, they will do very well. If they don't, they won't.
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Old 11-23-2011, 11:22 PM   #82
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Re: Apple discussion thread

Don't you think Apple has established itself as a visionary that not only responds to changes in consumer demand but actually creates that demand in the first place? How many other companies have people stand in line for 24 hours to buy its product at full price? You think these people will not want to buy the next iphone and ipad next year, let alone any new products Apple may/will put out?

Also, P/B, P/S, and ttm P/E are still at lowest levels of 5 years. I'd compare to competitors but I'm not sure it is valid. Google is at a higher valuation on all metrics except P/B fwiw.
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Old 11-24-2011, 12:24 AM   #83
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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Originally Posted by Biesterfield View Post
Don't you think Apple has established itself as a visionary that not only responds to changes in consumer demand but actually creates that demand in the first place? How many other companies have people stand in line for 24 hours to buy its product at full price? You think these people will not want to buy the next iphone and ipad next year, let alone any new products Apple may/will put out?
(in order) Yes. None. None. Don't know.

Also, P/B, P/S, and ttm P/E are still at lowest levels of 5 years. I'd compare to competitors but I'm not sure it is valid. Google is at a higher valuation on all metrics except P/B fwiw.[/QUOTE]

Yep.

My concern is perhaps overblown, but I look at the margins and they are crazy huge. This makes me nervous. That the products have severely limited "as is" lifetimes makes me nervous.

I think that my take is pretty much why it isn't valued higher than it is currently. I am neither long or short on aapl, and hope that you are right just because you seem nice.
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Old 11-24-2011, 12:39 AM   #84
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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Originally Posted by Biesterfield View Post
Do you really see growth slowing enough to justify a forward P/E of less than 10? Someone convince me Apple isn't a massive buy here at its lowest valuation in basically forever.
my opinion is that the mkt realizes that the margins are gonna come down over time (as others have mentioned above)

I am not comparing it to RIMM in any other manner- but- growth stocks are not usually buys when they start to trade at "reasonable" valuations.

Once RIMM started to look cheap it was dead. I know all the negative things that occured at RIMM and were "obvious"

To me there are some obvious things on AAPL-

1. Jobs passed
2. Margins will normalize for various reasons (components, lower ASP's)
3. Competition from Fire. Yes its a lesser product but it will eat into some ipad sales. Didn't happen with ipod.

The time to buy APPLE was long before it became the largest company in the S&P sometime this summer.

Am i sure I am right? Of course not.. but I think the easy $$ has been made n Apple. I also don't think its a layup or slam-dunk short. But i do expect it to under-perform the Nasdaq and at some point when i get comfortable with the banks it will under-perform the S&P as well...

I am pretty sure I won't convince you- but it has been my thought process since the fire was announced and Jobs sadly passed.
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Old 11-25-2011, 11:19 AM   #85
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Re: Apple discussion thread

I bought Appl today at the open.
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Old 11-25-2011, 01:15 PM   #86
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Re: Apple discussion thread

http://www.pbs.org/programs/steve-jobs-one-last-thing/

"Few men have changed our everyday world of work, leisure and human communication in the way that Steve Jobs, Apple's former CEO, has done. The scope of his impact was evident in the outpouring of tributes from around the world — voiced on Twitter as well as through makeshift memorials in front of Apple stores — following his death, from complications of pancreatic cancer, on October 5, 2011. Steve Jobs – One Last Thing not only examines how his talent, style and imagination have shaped all of our lives, but the influences that shaped and molded the man himself. The documentary takes an unflinching look at Jobs' difficult, controlling reputation and through interviews with the people who worked closely with him or chronicled his life, provides unique insight into what made him tick"
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Old 11-25-2011, 01:17 PM   #87
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Re: Apple discussion thread

Steve Jobs would have never let iTunes Match go live in its current form.
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Old 12-01-2011, 02:33 PM   #88
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Re: Apple discussion thread

Does anyone else think Steve Jobs book may harm Apple in the future by releasing the thought process for their current products?
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Old 12-01-2011, 03:17 PM   #89
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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I bought Appl today at the open.
Was it $370 then?
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Old 12-02-2011, 07:31 PM   #90
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Re: Apple discussion thread

368.2 $
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Old 12-02-2011, 08:21 PM   #91
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Re: Apple discussion thread

Random thing:

Apple TV SUCKS!!! I've had it since the beginning, and have been trying over and over and over to make it work because I love that sort of product.

If you google "apple t.v. bugs/glitches" you'll see tons of pissed of customers.
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Old 12-03-2011, 01:21 AM   #92
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Re: Apple discussion thread

I don't think margins will come down for at least the next year. They are essentially manufacturing the same phone in the 4S, as the 4, and I'm sure by now they have found ways to make the process extremely efficient. Also they are expanding in new markets they haven't touched before. Of course there are other factors, but they haven't made any radical overhaul to any of their products recently, so why would margins go down a lot?

Also I don't quite understand the argument that kindle is going to eat up ipad's sales. The tablet market is still tiny, and there is plenty of growth for any company. Tack on the fact that the two tablets are at completely different price points, and I don't see much sales overlap.

Anyway, I don't see AAPL going up forever, but I definitely believe in Q1 or Q2 next year they'll hit their all time high again.
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Old 12-04-2011, 11:28 AM   #93
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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Originally Posted by jfresh View Post
I don't think margins will come down for at least the next year. They are essentially manufacturing the same phone in the 4S, as the 4, and I'm sure by now they have found ways to make the process extremely efficient. Also they are expanding in new markets they haven't touched before. Of course there are other factors, but they haven't made any radical overhaul to any of their products recently, so why would margins go down a lot?

Also I don't quite understand the argument that kindle is going to eat up ipad's sales. The tablet market is still tiny, and there is plenty of growth for any company. Tack on the fact that the two tablets are at completely different price points, and I don't see much sales overlap.

Anyway, I don't see AAPL going up forever, but I definitely believe in Q1 or Q2 next year they'll hit their all time high again.
But fundamentally they do almost the same thing. Kindle is smaller, so there is that. What happens when Amazon releases a $300 Kindle that is the same size? That will have to pressure Apple's margins right?
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Old 12-04-2011, 01:13 PM   #94
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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But fundamentally they do almost the same thing. Kindle is smaller, so there is that. What happens when Amazon releases a $300 Kindle that is the same size? That will have to pressure Apple's margins right?
In theory they do almost the same thing. But the key here is 'in theory' and 'almost'. You can consume movies and books on the iPad and Kindle Fire equally as well, but the app store and the browsing experience is significantly better on the iPad. The Kindle will probably have a lot of impulse buyers, and buyers who want to see what the tablet hype is about, but for those reasons above, very few people who want an iPad will end up with a Kindle.

Also it's a big assumption that Amazon can release a $300 kindle the same size. They are already taking a loss (or at best breaking even) on the 7" Kindle. Can they afford to develop/manufacture/distribute a 10" Kindle at $300? And the opposite is true as well- what if next year, Apple releases a smaller iPad in the $300-$400 range? Or when they release the iPad3, they cut iPad2 prices?

And the big advantage Apple has, is that they sell the iPad globally, and the Apple ecosystem supports it, while the Kindle Fire is basically only usable in the US. Licensing musics/movies/tv shows- the core functions of the Kindle- around the world is a huge hurdle for Amazon to clear. Until then, Apple will continue dominating the non-US market.

All that said, margins/market share % probably can't stay as astronomically high as it is now. But the small declines in margins/market, they will make up in volume.
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Old 12-05-2011, 12:37 AM   #95
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Re: Apple discussion thread

Does anyone here trade options on AAPL? I am new to more complex option trading and wanted to run an idea by some experienced traders.

The expiry is Jan 2013 and my strategy is to buy the 390 calls/sell the 490 calls and sell the 275 puts which would put me at a net cost $20 to make $80 max but obligate me to buy shares if AAPL closes below $275 by Jan 2013.

I've never run a trade like this and love the leverage. And it could be moreless risky if stock runs up so put can be bought back.

My thesis here is the thought that there are newer products already in development and there will be news releases next year re: enough new products to drive stock price higher. I think AAPL has to introduce a new form factor for iphone that can compete on screen size that Samsung Galaxy/HTC Evo has. Doesn't have to be as big but screen needs to be biigger. Galaxy may be biggest thorn in side on phone side.

I played around with a Kindle yesterday but didn't feel it is as refined as the ipad. Existing AAPL customers will pay up for ipad and not defect to Kindle. I don't know about non-AAPl users though. as far as phones Android users prob stay with Android and AAPL users stay with AAPL. But new users may still flock to AAPL. When I see a commercial like the one for SIRI I ask myself if that would sway a new user and I think it will. Whether or not they use that feature it still has the cool factor to draw in new users.

On the downside if earnings growth comes to a halt and they keep missing on estimates I'm hoping the cash on hand the co. has keeps the stock from cratering to under $275.

I just think the odds of it going up are better than down by Jan 2013.
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Old 12-05-2011, 01:26 AM   #96
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Re: Apple discussion thread

the next ipad will also have retina display
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Old 12-05-2011, 11:20 AM   #97
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Re: Apple discussion thread

Ipad in enterprise. Kindle not.

IMO Apple TV does suck, but that doesn't prevent the next iteration from being awesome.
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Old 12-05-2011, 01:45 PM   #98
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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Ipad in enterprise. Kindle not.

IMO Apple TV does suck, but that doesn't prevent the next iteration from being awesome.
Kindle ahs a lot of buzz in enterprise now.

Consumers aren't the only people that rather spend 200 instead of 500 (more like 600) for a tablet.

They are just testing though. I don't think Kindles are quite ready to take on iPads yet. The one I played around with just didn't feel polished.
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Old 12-08-2011, 02:21 AM   #99
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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Originally Posted by maxtower View Post
But fundamentally they do almost the same thing. Kindle is smaller, so there is that. What happens when Amazon releases a $300 Kindle that is the same size? That will have to pressure Apple's margins right?
Rumors are Apple is looking at multiple sized iPads for future with a cheaper/smaller version.

Also not sure how Amazon can pull $300 samed sized Kindle with retina.
All accounts are IPad 3 will be full retina display.

Curious to see what iTV ends up encompassing. Can't imagine it will just be nice TV with Siri and Apple Tv baked in...though that would still be better than a lot of ****ty TVs out there.
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Old 12-08-2011, 04:37 PM   #100
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Re: Apple discussion thread

Someone remembered Nokia or Linux ?

If someone bought Apple years ago congrats, but today ...

For me Apple is more a lifestyle product, bought by teens twens that want
to be IN and not OUT. If you look realistic there are still better Pads and phones for a lower price.

And overall i guess Android and Windows has more benefits than Apples
Software.

I just looked to Apples plan for Ipads and Amazons orders for the Kindle fire...Ipad is definetely better than the Kindle but it seems not many need an Ipad and be glad with a kindle.

Overall Apple might be the next Nokia .....
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