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Old 02-01-2019, 06:19 AM   #951
smoothcriminal99
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Re: Apple discussion thread

This discussions has become pretty toxic but there are a variety of reasons why iPhones have a more significant competitive advantage then blackberry or nokia did in their peaks. We could get into a long debate about this but the biggest difference is until there are universal app stores, whoever has the largest user base creates a cycle of creating more content and therefore attracting more users which attracts more developers to use their platform for development. Phones will shift to operating system/gaming counsel status because of this where there is an impossible barrier to entry because you simply can not replicate the content on a new platform.

Despite this I think they are absolutely butchering their advantage by focusing on camera quality instead of functionality and increasing the price point for very little utility.
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Old 02-01-2019, 06:36 AM   #952
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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This discussions has become pretty toxic but there are a variety of reasons why iPhones have a more significant competitive advantage then blackberry or nokia did in their peaks. We could get into a long debate about this but the biggest difference is until there are universal app stores, whoever has the largest user base creates a cycle of creating more content and therefore attracting more users which attracts more developers to use their platform for development. Phones will shift to operating system/gaming counsel status because of this where there is an impossible barrier to entry because you simply can not replicate the content on a new platform.

Despite this I think they are absolutely butchering their advantage by focusing on camera quality instead of functionality and increasing the price point for very little utility.
The iphone advantage is to be sold as part of a 5K$ package that include an apple watch an iphone a macbook pro and ipad + whatever the rest of the family buy which give them some good customer retention.
Their main issue is devices becoming redundant, the ipad will kill the macbook overtime and the imac, like the iphone killed the ipod. The apple watch will replace the Iphone at some point.
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Old 02-01-2019, 06:39 AM   #953
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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The iphone advantage is to be sold as part of a 5K$ package that include an apple watch an iphone a macbook pro and ipad + whatever the rest of the family buy which give them some good customer retention.
Their main issue is devices becoming redundant, the ipad will kill the macbook overtime and the imac, like the iphone killed the ipod. The apple watch will replace the Iphone at some point.
Hot damn, that's a hell of a lot of wrong in one post.
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Old 02-01-2019, 07:31 AM   #954
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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This discussions has become pretty toxic but there are a variety of reasons why iPhones have a more significant competitive advantage then blackberry or nokia did in their peaks. We could get into a long debate about this but the biggest difference is until there are universal app stores, whoever has the largest user base creates a cycle of creating more content and therefore attracting more users which attracts more developers to use their platform for development.
This is why Windows will win the days when phones become PCs? This is why Apple is doomed to fall prey to Android, which has 4x more users and growing?



(old data, but the numbers are about the same today).

The latter is actually a decent point. Apple is bound to its hardware. If massively overpriced iPhone sales fall in the next recession, which they will, their 20% current market share will get smaller and smaller, and once that happens, and developers will abandon them and a vicious negative cycle. The app store is actually an enormous danger for Apple and a source of bankruptcy.

Quote:
Despite this I think they are absolutely butchering their advantage by focusing on camera quality instead of functionality and increasing the price point for very little utility.
Apple can't add functionality because it ruins the Apple experience and their profit margins (if they add storage, they lose billions in profits, if they add options, they lose simplicity). Blackberry had the same problem. This is how these things play out, hence the the comparison
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Old 02-01-2019, 07:42 AM   #955
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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If I meet a girl and she has an android she automatically drops a level. I assume that is reciprocated.

Until that changes Apple will continue to win.

It's not complicated.
What this guy said:
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Originally Posted by TheMVP View Post
Hot damn, that's a hell of a lot of wrong in one post.
The phone bigotry/snobbishness of some random dude has absolutely zero to do with what the large majority think. As I posted above, iPhones already have second class status in China, the biggest growth market and in fact one that Apple needs for growth. China is a big reason why the quarter was so miserable, and with phone like Huawei providing more functionality in a similar looking package, what sane person who isn't a weird phone snob would buy Apple, which provides less for far more money? With Apple sucking at innovation and stuck in an absurdly high margins trap to keep their profit alive and stock price up, this will only get worse for them.

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Old 02-01-2019, 03:39 PM   #956
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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This is why Windows will win the days when phones become PCs? This is why Apple is doomed to fall prey to Android, which has 4x more users and growing?



(old data, but the numbers are about the same today
Microsoft is not moving back into the mass consumer space... it just isn’t profitable enough for them. They’re going to stick to commercial products and only integrate to mass consumers as cheaply as they can. Worst case for apple they license/integrate their operating system to another phone developer or multiple ones but google doesn’t really need them and they probably won’t spend the time/money on something that competes with their tables/hardware.

That image is global and ultimately misleading. The only users that matters for my argument is high income population as they spend more on apps so US numbers are most representative. I just look at App Store revenue which apple still holds 2:1 lead over google and looks to have stabilized. Or you can discuss the issue with developers. It used to be pretty universal that you’d make significantly more releasing on App Store vs google play but I haven’t talked to app developers about the issue in a couple years so maybe it’s become easier to release cross platform and then maintain working updated versions on multiple platforms.
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Old 02-01-2019, 03:51 PM   #957
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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The iphone advantage is to be sold as part of a 5K$ package that include an apple watch an iphone a macbook pro and ipad + whatever the rest of the family buy which give them some good customer retention.
Their main issue is devices becoming redundant, the ipad will kill the macbook overtime and the imac, like the iphone killed the ipod. The apple watch will replace the Iphone at some point.
I agree their strategy could be better and what you are suggesting is beneficial but cannabalizing their own market share only hurts them in the short term with people switching to typically less expensive alternatives. Long term they create a competitive advantage in their field. They have a much stronger position in tablets and digital watches then they do in laptops and phones.
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Old 02-02-2019, 02:31 AM   #958
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Re: Apple discussion thread

As AI and AR/VR come of age, the ability to control more and more of the stack in house - like apple and unlike any of their competitors - seems like a pretty good moat to me.
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Old 02-02-2019, 05:07 AM   #959
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Re: Apple discussion thread

5k package idea is clearly wrong. Apples sells a LOT more iPhones than Macs/iPads. I am not 100% but I’d be very surprised if even a majority of iPhone owners today also own a MacBook or an iPad.

HomePod has been a disaster and Siri has somehow fallen behind everyone else’s voice assistant. The Touch Bar and butterfly keyboard is utter trash. My wife got one from her jobs tech budget and she returned it after a few days.

I have been viewing Apple as a luxury electronics maker for years. What bothers me about Apple isn’t lack of unit sales growth. I expected that.

What bothers me is Apple’s execution has gotten worse over the last 4 or 5 years.

Last edited by grizy; 02-02-2019 at 05:32 AM.
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Old 02-03-2019, 05:40 PM   #960
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Re: Apple discussion thread

Another that bothers me about Apple is actually the vaunted ecosystem itself.

Although current iPhone users, myself included, are quite happy to pay a premium for even a marginally better experience and significantly more brand cachet, first time phone buyers would struggle to see the difference and that means, in emerging markets especially, Apple could just become irrelevant.

This isn’t a problem in traditional luxury retailing environment. For example, upgrading from Coach to LV or Calvin Klein to Hermès is a straight status upgrade with no switching costs beyond the price tags. Upgrading from One+ to iPhone, as of now, isn’t as seamless in large part because Apple wants to isolate the ecosystem and hasn’t done well in making the transition painless.

XR idea is dumb for the same reasons LV/Gucci doesn’t have “entry” level models that compete with Coach directly. There isn’t enough of a difference in functionality (in auto industry there are visible differences between, for example, the 3s and 5s). This means selling downstream dilutes the brand and just hurts your real profit makers. Samsung learned this the hard way and has focused almost exclusively on high end models in the last few product cycles.

But if you cannot offer a viable “entry” product for the first time buyers, you have to make it easy for new buyers to switch to you. This is just a truth in luxury retailing since before any of us was born.

I think some corners of Apple understand this and that the future of Apple is something like 10% of overall smartphone market but almost 100% of market of the most expensive (1000+?) phones and over 80% of entire market’s profit share.

Last edited by grizy; 02-03-2019 at 05:57 PM.
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Old 02-03-2019, 06:09 PM   #961
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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5k package idea is clearly wrong. Apples sells a LOT more iPhones than Macs/iPads. I am not 100% but I’d be very surprised if even a majority of iPhone owners today also own a MacBook or an iPad.

HomePod has been a disaster and Siri has somehow fallen behind everyone else’s voice assistant. The Touch Bar and butterfly keyboard is utter trash. My wife got one from her jobs tech budget and she returned it after a few days.

I have been viewing Apple as a luxury electronics maker for years. What bothers me about Apple isn’t lack of unit sales growth. I expected that.

What bothers me is Apple’s execution has gotten worse over the last 4 or 5 years.
The 5K package is a bit hyperbolic obviously but it s still real, alot of apple features require to have multiple products and many family will go 100% apple (I know a ton of them from work)
apple watch require an iphone
airpods are much better with an iphone + other apple products.
the ipad is much better to share stuff with another apple product and i m not even talking about apps from the store that you share between devices
Imessage and facetime to my knowledge are better if you have some ipad or macbook/IMAC aswell.

Now they have a big problem, when they release a phone for 1200$ and chinese good brand start bragging that for the same price they offer a phone that is on par with that the iphone + a decent laptop + whatever gadget for the price of the iphone like here. Even if you have enough disposable income the price difference is becoming relevant for a lot of people.
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Old 02-03-2019, 08:26 PM   #962
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Re: Apple discussion thread

The bundling effect is real on the margins but it’s not, at this point, the main driver of Apple’s value.

Like I said, most iPhone owners don’t own any other Apple products. This is almost certainly true because iPhone unit sales have been ~ten times as high as MacBooks and is ~twice as high as MacBook, Watch, and iPad combined for years. Considering the substantial overlap between people who own Watch, MacBook, and iPads, this means it’s all but certain most iPhone owners own no other Apple products.
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Old 02-05-2019, 12:39 PM   #963
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Re: Apple discussion thread

One more thing, I think it's a strategic mistake Apple is refusing to make an Android app to sync with Apple Watch. It's like they forgot iPod didn't take off until they made iTunes for PC.
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Old 02-05-2019, 01:03 PM   #964
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Re: Apple discussion thread

That's Apple biggest flaw:denying their customers from obvious easy features until they lose a ton of market share.
The IPad pro would be so much more useful if you could plug some hdd/ssd to work but being greedy and shortsighted they will let chrome OS catch up and will react too late.
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Old 02-05-2019, 01:50 PM   #965
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Re: Apple discussion thread

Do you think Apple will ever move their game catalog behind a paywall and roll out a subscription service similar to xbox live in an effort to boost growth? Multiplayer ad-free requires Apple game pass for $9.99/month...?

Who wins the cloud gaming race between Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Sony, EA, NVIDIA, the field...? Which cloud gaming compatible device and app are currently owned by the greatest % of gamers?
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:02 PM   #966
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Re: Apple discussion thread

Google working on gaming on the chromecast is promising.
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Old 02-11-2019, 12:06 PM   #967
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Re: Apple discussion thread

We finally have hard numbers on how bad Apple's situation is, since Cook stopped reporting them:

IDC reports 20% decline in iPhone sales QoQ in China:
Quote:
The figures in the report showed a 19.9 percent fall in Apple's smartphone shipments in the final quarter of 2018, while Huawei's grew 23.3 percent. That reduced Apple's market share to 11.5 percent from 12.9 percent a year earlier, the report said.

"Besides regular performance upgrades in 2018 and small changes to the exterior, there has not been any major innovation that supports users to continue to change their phones at the greatly increased price," the report said. "The severe macro environment in China and the assault of domestic brands' innovative products have also been reasons for Apple's continued decline."

A separate report from another common industry source, Hong Kong-based Counterpoint, earlier this month confirmed a similar sharp fall in sales in India - another big emerging market where Apple is struggling. Counterpoint said iPhone sales in the fourth quarter, which
includes India's electronics sales-heavy Diwali festival, fell 25 percent on the year, reducing total sales in 2018 to 1.7 million units from 3.2 million a year earlier.
Bad India numbers too. Without these markets iPhone growth is dead and probably in decline, especially at 40% margins. There's not enough differentiation any more to justify the absurd premium.

The market share drops are pretty extreme. If you're a Chinese language developer, do you develop for the 70% Android market or the 11% (and dropping) iPhone market? While giving 30% of the profit to the cucks at Apple, no less...
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Old 02-11-2019, 12:31 PM   #968
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Re: Apple discussion thread

https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/16/ap...-half-of-2018/

Seems like developing for the cucks is more profitable still by a huge margin and google cut is the same as apple
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Old 02-11-2019, 12:39 PM   #969
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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The market share drops are pretty extreme. If you're a Chinese language developer, do you develop for the 70% Android market or the 11% (and dropping) iPhone market? While giving 30% of the profit to the cucks at Apple, no less...
https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/16/ap...-half-of-2018/

Seems like developing for the cucks is more profitable still by a huge margin and google cut is the same as apple
WTF does this have to do with China and India? And what does Google Play margins have to do with Android apps generally?

It's all your US arguments in reverse applying in China. You'd see that if emotional Apple lover wasn't emotional.

Wake up and smell the coffee. It's not like Tim Cook didn't give you an enormous hint that sales were ****ed when he said he'd no longer be breaking out numbers for iPhone, something proudly touted for years.
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Old 02-11-2019, 12:59 PM   #970
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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Originally Posted by techcrunch View Post
"Subscription-based apps are big businesses these days, having helped to boost app revenue in 2017 by 77 percent to reach $781 million,..."

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"Consumer spending on games grew 19.1 percent in the first half of 2018 to $26.6 billion across both stores, representing roughly 78 percent of the total spent ($16.3 billion on the App Store and $10.3 billion on Google Play)."
Baggage fee moment is rapidly approaching when Apple starts billing for access to games.
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Old 02-11-2019, 03:42 PM   #971
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Re: Apple discussion thread

It's amazing the gaming industry isn't doing an antitrust filing.

Imagine Microsoft in 2005 charging developers 30% of their revenue for the "privilege" of installing their software on Windows...the justice department broke them up for 1/10th of what Apple are doing.
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Old 02-12-2019, 05:50 AM   #972
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Re: Apple discussion thread

I considered switching to Apple products recently, for the first time in my life. I took a look at their latest lineup of products and noped outta there.
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Old 02-12-2019, 11:17 AM   #973
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Re: Apple discussion thread

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The market share drops are pretty extreme. If you're a Chinese language developer, do you develop for the 70% Android market or the 11% (and dropping) iPhone market? While giving 30% of the profit to the cucks at Apple, no less...
My point was that if you are a chinese developer you develop for IOS first still because you ll get more money than developing for android.
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Old 02-12-2019, 11:58 AM   #974
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Re: Apple discussion thread

As a factual matter, developers prioritize iOS in Chinese and OECD markets. Depending on who data you use, despite having a lot fewer users, the typical app makes 3-8x as much in Apple App store as its Android equivalent.

That's the biggest driving force... the other is just the iOS environment is easier to develop for.
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Old 02-25-2019, 10:48 AM   #975
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Re: Apple discussion thread

If Apple's rumored 16" MacBook Pro brings back function keys and still has decent support for Bootcamp, I'll grudgingly spend $3k.

If it brings back function keys AND a better keyboard, I'll happily spend $3k.

If it doesn't bring back function keys and insists on the stupid touch bar, I'll buy it and then return it after confirming once again touch bar is a piece of ****.
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