False positives.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...rom-apple.html

how a tweet can change the world...

With all the almost instant euphoria in AAPL and it now seeming to settle at the magical 500 level, is it crazy to think that someone could wait for a 450 handle before buying or has that ship sailed?

If you were buying for a very long term investment, what price would you set your limit order at and why?

Not sure why you'd want a very long term investment in apple. The field is littered with hardware companieswho were the hot product for a few years, maybe a decade before complete collapse. Palm, Nokia, blackberry...

Do you think the "iWatch" will actually be anything more than a fad? Apple will end up sticking to the same old boring tablets and phones while they become obsolete, but no one will notice because "huge cash pile" or "lifelong customers!" Then the stock will tank to below 400, below $350 and the whole way down people will make arguments about "low P/E" as if the E part always will be upward sloping. Then they will mention the dividend as if those are never cut. Apple is a joke of a stock that probably won't be in the triple digits in 5 years

let me know how you want to structure the bet

I would definitely consider a bet that apple falls below $100 at any point before January 1 2019. I think the biggest risk on my end is inflation/hyperinflation where even a cheap stock sells for $1000.

Apple is just blackberry 2.0 waiting to happen. They're too big and stupid for their own good and can't see the fact that their margins are contracting and will plummet further in the next few years.

Just listen to Tim Cook speak for 10 minutes and look back at all the comments on blackberry 4 years before their absolute implosion. Same bs arguments. Consumers will jump ship so fast your head will spin and apple has no backup plan because the biggest improvement in the iPhone is a gold trim. Whoopdie doo. I've seen it happen time and time again. Remember the palm pilot? The RAZR? That's how we will look back on the iPhone in a few years. Same with any android phone too.

Who is going to unseat apple and android in the mobile phone market? There needs to be something better to come out first and I'm not sure which companies are going to do that

microsoft historically gets it right after 3-6 years.

let me know how you want to structure the bet

I was in BestBuy last night.

Two teenagers, one girl and one boy, walked in with their parents looking for Samsung tablets. They couldn't walk away from the iPads and ended up getting those instead.

Sample size of what...2? 2.5?

Microsofts move in the 80/90ss is similar to Google and Android a few years ago and the fruits of that labor are already showing.

Microsoft is very far behind in the mobile game. And I think that gap is widening. The longer it takes for them to compete in this area the harder it's going to be to compete with Android/iOS.

The shift to mobile is also a shift away from windows/office. And as the world becomes familiarized with these operating systems (Android/iOS)...as developers build upon these platforms....and as Google/Apple get better at designing/implementing and protecting this lead...it's going to be harder to get a foot in the door.

Windows
Excel (Lotus)
Word (WordPerfect)
Outlook (Eudora)
Windows 2000 (taking over server space, from UNIX namely)
IE (killed Netscape before getting destroyed by firefox/chrome)
XBox (PS)
PC peripherals (mice and keyboard)
Exchange

Microsoft has a very long history of executing other people's ideas better, after a learning curve. They don't bat 1.000 (Zune, MSN and other areas) but they tend to be ruthless as long as the market is growing and they see profits down the road.

I can see MS OS being unseated this way. Mobile develops so far and becomes so familiar that mobile OS starts to move to desktops and laptops.

I do like that MS is competing in search, mobile, tablets, etc. They're not making money and I don't expect them to crush Google or Apple, but just having alternatives out there means that Google and Apple are on the defensive instead of being on the offensive. And having these alternatives cuts into Google/Apple margins. They can't just do what they want without any competition because MSFT is there in the background offering competing products. All the while, Microsoft is milking it's enterprise, office, xbox, OS/Office cash cows.

Windows 8 and Windows Mobile are first steps in integrating desktop/laptop with mobile/tablet. I think this is the way to win mobile long term. With this integration and cloud offerings, they can lock people into their ecosystem. Whereas Google Phone, Apple phone, whatever - 2 year contract is up and it doesn't matter what you get next. Chrome OS doesn't seem to be going anywhere. Keep in mind that MSFT has a hand in Android, too. MSFT makes more from Android patents than Google, IIRC.

I'm reading this like:

Windows
Office
Server
Xbox

So 3.5

One of which is a great product but contributes $0 in profit to the company.

I'm not arguing they haven't done well in other spaces. But their historical track record (however we argue it) is no indication of their future results.

Whelp, the haters haven't been around much lately huh?

Thoughts on what happens after tomorrow's announcement?

I'm thinking the news doesn't strike a cord with the public and the stock price drops accordingly. Nothing Apple says or does will confirm or match the public's high expectations for the company.

If rumors are to be believed, it sounds like they're just going to announce a $300 lower-end phone (5C) and a new flagship phone (5S). In new color options. Maybe a Nano update.

Without anything new to announce on a lighter iPad 5, retina iPad mini 2, new OSX, iOS 7, iWatch and AppleTV news to sweeten the deal, I'm not sure what you're expecting. Incremental updates from most companies generally don't get the press or hoopla that Apple's enjoyed in recent years. Which they themselves helped create and continue to encourage with the all the fanfare associated with these events and big ad campaigns.

So if investors and the public are underwhelmed by what they see tomorrow--and I'm emphasizing the "if" part, as I don't know--it won't be their fault. Apple's had a good recent run and an 8% jump yesterday ahead of this so people are looking for hot new products to be available this holiday season. It's up to Apple to live up to the expectations they've accustomed people to.

Live blog w/ photos of event

Cliffs: 5S processor went 64-bit and looks good, upgraded camera, now available in rapper gold. 5C cheaper and plastic, comes in gaudy Windows 8 Metro colors. 4s will continue in production, 5 has been cancelled (not price cut) (fist pump for 5 owners).

/end

You forgot fingerprint technology, which can be used instead of password at the itunes store

Thought I put that in there but that too. Lots of better uses for a fingerprint reader than iTunes though. And I should probably qualify "cheaper" on the 5C, since it's not very cheap at all. Definitely wasn't what I had in mind.

The price of the phone really has little impact on the total costs. It doesn't really make much sense as to why people try to save $100 on the price of the phone but they're still paying $60+ per month for service

the 5C is going to be a disaster. you don't market something as a low end phone and then try to sell it for $600. steve jobs is rolling over in his grave. sell sell sell.

I have actually been waiting to buy this new "budget" iphone to switch from my iphone 4. $600 sounds way too much though.