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04-12-2012 , 05:18 PM
Has apple stated the method they will use for the buybacks over the next three years?
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04-13-2012 , 01:16 PM
Not that I would make financial decisions based on this, but it seemed interesting. Anyone with more experience trading have an opinion on this:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/par...ort-2012-04-12
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07-10-2012 , 03:56 PM
Thoughts on the stock hitting $1000 by this time next year (if not earlier)??
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07-11-2012 , 04:39 PM
less than 6%
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07-24-2012 , 11:32 PM
A reliable source wrote that AAPL could buy every NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL team and still have some money left over. Seems like no matter what they'll do fine in the long run.
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07-25-2012 , 07:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
Ill bet anyone even money that apple is below $600 a share one year from the day we bet
looking good this am, of course the real test will be when they report iphone 5 numbers.
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07-25-2012 , 09:10 AM
Yeah, this is frankly just an opportunity for me to pick up some call on the cheap as the iPad Mini and iPhone 5 announcements in the Fall are going to send the stock skyrocketing. Earnings in Q1 (Q4 Calendar) are going to be through the roof if they really do release a $299 iPad Mini.
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07-25-2012 , 10:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jws43yale
Yeah, this is frankly just an opportunity for me to pick up some call on the cheap as the iPad Mini and iPhone 5 announcements in the Fall are going to send the stock skyrocketing. Earnings in Q1 (Q4 Calendar) are going to be through the roof if they really do release a $299 iPad Mini.
i would assume the margins on the ipad mini will be even smaller than the other products they sell.....hurting their margins even more.

just sayin...
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07-25-2012 , 11:25 PM
I thought apple's margins are in the 30% range?
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07-26-2012 , 12:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
looking good this am, of course the real test will be when they report iphone 5 numbers.
eh, ive got til march. think ill be fine.
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07-26-2012 , 12:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
looking good this am, of course the real test will be when they report iphone 5 numbers.
Wow, I remember that now.
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08-22-2012 , 03:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
looking good this am, of course the real test will be when they report iphone 5 numbers.
looking less good this pm
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08-25-2012 , 05:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by five4suited
I thought apple's margins are in the 30% range?
If you get a noname smartphone with a quadcore chip that outperform the 4 S
for 299$ i think there margin is more 50-60%.

Ifl you love Apple and want pay the hype and dont like the open world Apple might work for awhile.

Myself prefer an open system with a good performance, but none of the mobile devices so far is good enough for me. I still prefer netbooks, laptops and a PC.

Smartphones and tablets are more or less toys instead tools for me...and Apple offer the most expensive ones .

I use a smartphone but its one that offer 98% of Apples performance for 30% of the price.
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08-25-2012 , 10:05 AM
Apple is a misunderstood company because at heart it's a software company that monetizes its value though the sale of high margin hardware. What you get when you buy an Apple product is an entire ecosystem. Your missing the whole point of apple if you think you can get 98% of the performance for 30% of the price. You may get the same hardware specs but you will not get the same user experience.
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08-25-2012 , 10:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackpot7
Apple is a misunderstood company because at heart it's a software company that monetizes its value though the sale of high margin hardware. What you get when you buy an Apple product is an entire ecosystem. Your missing the whole point of apple if you think you can get 98% of the performance for 30% of the price. You may get the same hardware specs but you will not get the same user experience.
You can actually get 100+% of the performance for 30% of the price, because for the vast majority of people (who aren't artists, graphic designers, etc), the WINDOWS ecosystem is far superior (gaming, microsoft office, etc). Actually for 60-70% of the people (who basically only use their web browser), the CHROME OS ecosystem is far superior (ease of use, security, etc).

In the mobile space (phones + tablets), I will agree that the Apple ecosystem is top notch, but it doesn't win in every area compared to the Android ecosystem. It has more, and higher quality apps (and media integration), but its "cloud" platform is worse/less stable, soon its Maps app will be 2 years behind, etc.
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08-25-2012 , 02:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackpot7
Apple is a misunderstood company because at heart it's a software company that monetizes its value though the sale of high margin hardware. What you get when you buy an Apple product is an entire ecosystem. Your missing the whole point of apple if you think you can get 98% of the performance for 30% of the price. You may get the same hardware specs but you will not get the same user experience.
I think this is very accurate post regarding where Apple's true value lies.

To expand on this a little:

Apple produces over 90% of their revenue directly from the sale of hardware (iPhones, iPads, Macs, iPods, Other Hardware).

The largest distinguishing feature that these devices have over their competitors (Android smartphones, Android tablets, Windows PCs, Zunes, etc) is their software, not hardware specs.

Hardware will continually become commoditized and the specs various OEMs offer in their respective products will slowly level out. The computer industry is a good example of this. Prices will be driven down, margins will drop and thanks to competition, consumers will have more options at better prices.

The same competitive forces that act in the computer market will hold true in the smartphone and tablet markets. Apple may be able to leverage its supply chain and cash reserves more effectively than other manufacturers but eventually the hardware specs offered in these markets will continue to level out. As this happens, more and more of the consumers' purchasing decision will be placed on software...an area that sharply distinguishes Apple from its competitors.

Typically, when a consumer is making the decision to purchase a computer, a smartphone or a tablet...the first decision point is whether to purchase an Apple or a competitor's product (iOS or Android for smartphones and tablets...PC or Mac for computers). Apple captures all the sales from consumers who choose to go the iOS or Mac route. There is an added layer of competition that Apple doesn't face that Android OEMs and PC OEMs are faced with.

HP, Dell, Lenovo, Acer, ASUS, Toshiba all compete directly against Apple to get customers to purchase a Windows PC vs a Mac. They also all compete directly against each other for all those PC customers. This second level of competition further depresses margins as PC OEMs can't compete with each other on software (they all offer Windows) so they ultimately compete on price. This is a major reason why Apples Mac margins (and prices) are significantly higher than their PC counterparts and it is directly attributable to Apple's ability to offer alternative software (Mac OS mainly).

The same competitive forces that are observed in the PC market with Windows OEMs will happen in the smartphone and tablet markets with Android OEMs. Samsung, HTC, Motorola, LG, ZTE, etc all have to compete first with Apple and then with each other once consumers choose to purchase an Android vs an iOS device. As competition spreads customers out and pushes prices and margins down, the Android OEMs of the future, much like the PC OEMs of today, will be the first to hit unprofitable operating levels. We see examples of this in HPQs and Dells personal computer operations. We have seen Motorola struggle to remain profitable and we're just starting to see HTC falter as well.

Apple, with its pricing and margin buffer, will continue to remain profitable thanks to the ability to avoid levels of competition by being able to offer consumers a differentiated product thanks to the software these products offer...not the hardware.


In a letter to Shareholders in March 2012, David Einhorn had similar thoughts:

Quote:
During the presentation at our annual Partners’ Dinner, we talked about a number of stocks that have suffered multiple compression, where businesses have performed nicely, but have not seen a corresponding uplift in their share price. Apple (AAPL) is the clearest example of this.

In 2011, AAPL’s revenue grew 66% and earnings per share grew 78%. Both of these growth rates greatly exceeded market expectations and even our own expectations, which were considerably more optimistic than consensus. Nonetheless, the stock appreciated by only 25%. As a result of this mismatch, AAPL’s P/E multiple compressed by about one third. Several other names in our portfolio including General Motors (GM), Microsoft (MSFT), Delphi (DLPH) and Arkema (France: AKE) also suffered multiple compression in 2011. This trend reversed in the first quarter, with all of these companies enjoying rising share prices that reflect both current earnings performance and some P/E multiple catch-up from last year. None of our long portfolio investments have recovered with as much fanfare as AAPL, which surged from $405 to $600 per share in the quarter, bringing its P/E back to where it was at the end of 2010. Yet not everyone agrees that AAPL’s stock price is merely playing catch-up to its fundamentals. Some see the stock surge as a bubble, while others go so far as to mock that AAPL is its own asset class. Here are some of the common concerns we have heard:

1. Too many hedge funds own AAPL.

2. If AAPL’s share price doubles, it will have a $1 trillion market capitalization, and everyone knows there can be no such thing as a $1 trillion company.

3. Motorola, Research in Motion and Nokia were all market leaders that proved unable to hold onto their dominant positions and healthy margins; this too will be AAPL’s fate.

4. AAPL can’t possibly maintain its current hyper-growth trajectory.


Let’s address these one at a time:


1. Too many funds.

It’s not clear what the objection is here. We suppose the worry is that there is a herd mentality among hedge funds, and that when one fund sells, there could be a cascade of hedge funds selling shares and the stock price will collapse. Moreover, if everyone already owns AAPL, who is left to buy it? Collectively, hedge funds currently hold less than 5% of AAPL’s outstanding shares, and no hedge fund ranks among the top 40 holders of the stock. The average hedge fund has less than 2% of its equity assets in AAPL versus AAPL’s 4% weighting in the S&P 500, which means hedge funds are actually underweight AAPL.


2. A trillion dollars?

We’ve scoured the Nasdaq listing rules, reviewed the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and engaged a leading numerologist. We can’t find any prohibition on trillion dollar market capitalizations.


3. All empires must fall.

This concern, while not as arbitrary as the first two, reinforces our belief that the skeptics have a fundamental misunderstanding of AAPL. Their view suggests that AAPL is a hardware company. We disagree.


4. Growing pains.

AAPL shares are not priced for growth. Its current valuation is justified without it.


The latter two concerns merit further discussion. Despite its size, AAPL remains one of the most misunderstood stocks in the market. AAPL is a software company. The value comes from iOS, the App store, iTunes and iCloud. A Motorola RAZR phone was a one-time winner because when someone else made a phone that was just a little better, RAZR sales stopped.

In contrast, a consumer with one AAPL product tends to want more AAPL
products. Once the user has a second device, AAPL has captured the customer. At that point, a future competitor has to make a product that isn’t just a little better, but a lot better to get people to switch. The high switching cost makes AAPL’s business much more defensible than that of its predecessors.

Further, AAPL’s ability to consistently offer innovative features (as opposed to marginal improvements on the current features) encourages users to upgrade every couple of years. This provides a recurring revenue stream. And because AAPL embeds its software into its hardware, it doesn’t face Microsoft’s piracy problem. If the Chinese want AAPL, they have to buy AAPL. Rather than view AAPL as a hardware company, we see it as a software company that monetizes its value through the repeated sales of high margin hardware.

We continue to hold AAPL. Not only do we think the skeptics are misguided, we believe the shares remain cheap. AAPL trades at a lower multiple than the average company in the S&P 500. A below-market multiple implies that this is a below-average company. We have a hard time seeing how anyone ranks AAPL as below average.
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08-25-2012 , 06:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dknightx
You can actually get 100+% of the performance for 30% of the price, because for the vast majority of people (who aren't artists, graphic designers, etc), the WINDOWS ecosystem is far superior (gaming, microsoft office, etc). Actually for 60-70% of the people (who basically only use their web browser), the CHROME OS ecosystem is far superior (ease of use, security, etc).

In the mobile space (phones + tablets), I will agree that the Apple ecosystem is top notch, but it doesn't win in every area compared to the Android ecosystem. It has more, and higher quality apps (and media integration), but its "cloud" platform is worse/less stable, soon its Maps app will be 2 years behind, etc.
The problem for me and many others is apples ecosystem.
Its closed, over all not better and more expensive.

If you look to the PC market how many use apple ? 5% ?

They had the advantage to develope a new product and took a big advantage, over the time the close apple ecosystem will have no success in my opinion.

People love open systems and industrial standards.

I tried smartphones from friends apple and samsung, for me there is no big differrence...and both are not what i need
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08-26-2012 , 12:59 AM
I have a droid and iPhone. They both have pros and cons. Droid software is kinda clunky with more steps to get where you want but you can always get there because it has more options and menus anywhere u go. Even though iPhone is more streamlined, it tilts me hard on this front (ugh can't find what I want, guess I'll press the back button). also, as mentioned, iCloud and iPhone maps are complete garbage. Just sharing this as a common user experience as Im interested in projections of who's likely to dominate in the future of smartphones. I think the next year is a crossroad and pretty much everyone will soon have one of the 2 smartphones. Thoughts?
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08-26-2012 , 04:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsfl0pper
I have a droid and iPhone. They both have pros and cons. Droid software is kinda clunky with more steps to get where you want but you can always get there because it has more options and menus anywhere u go. Even though iPhone is more streamlined, it tilts me hard on this front (ugh can't find what I want, guess I'll press the back button). also, as mentioned, iCloud and iPhone maps are complete garbage. Just sharing this as a common user experience as Im interested in projections of who's likely to dominate in the future of smartphones. I think the next year is a crossroad and pretty much everyone will soon have one of the 2 smartphones. Thoughts?
The younger ones maybee.

I am relative old, need reading glasses and use my mobile phone as emergency tool . So i am glad with a 30$ phone.

But i was interested in an IPAD 3, tried it and it fails. After that i loved the
Toshiba Libretto W100 with 2 7" touchscreens. Great idea but also not what i want.

Now i have a normal 17" notebook, bought it used from my company.
One time outpackaged and sold for 45% less. I simple need something to work and both Apple and Android dont offer something that i need.

Maybee i switch in the future for an entertainmant toy, but i am old enough
that i dont want to be captured / kidnapped by an closed ecosystem.
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08-26-2012 , 10:45 AM
Old people are not the growth drivers for smartphones or tablets. They often dislike change and find new features confusing. This doesn't mean the products aren't useful and necessary for the majority of people. I'm curious what you didn't like about the new Ipad and why you think it fails?
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08-26-2012 , 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackpot7
Old people are not the growth drivers for smartphones or tablets. They often dislike change and find new features confusing. This doesn't mean the products aren't useful and necessary for the majority of people. I'm curious what you didn't like about the new Ipad and why you think it fails?
General i dont like the closed ecosystem from apple.

I tried the Ipad from a friend and asked him how i could do my work on it.
At first i was not amused that i need for any crap a new App, but a killer was
that 10" is too small and that none of m existing files are compatible...or i dont know the correct app ...and that all for 100% more than my 3 week "used" Laptop.

For entertainment as a mobile device i only need a video player and a webbrowser with internet access guess there are other systems with a much lower pricetag.
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08-27-2012 , 03:31 PM
looking long-term, how long before widespread premature arthritis/vision deterioration affects the smartphone market?
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08-28-2012 , 01:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by five4suited
looking long-term, how long before widespread premature arthritis/vision deterioration affects the smartphone market?
I am in germany not in the US

10 out of 10 from our kids use smartphones 9 out of 10 from the adaults
only use the phone feature they usually dont type sms or make pictures.

I might be interested in a few years if they produce a tablet XXl or the microsoft surface 8 with a 17 " screen .

I dont say apple will go bankrupt, but so far i know huge parts of there winnings are from hardware...and hardware margins shrink earlier or later in the most businesses.
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08-28-2012 , 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by five4suited
looking long-term, how long before widespread premature arthritis/vision deterioration affects the smartphone market?
Probably not until we have meds that prevent them from becoming big issues.
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08-28-2012 , 03:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by solucky
I dont say apple will go bankrupt, but so far i know huge parts of there winnings are from hardware...and hardware margins shrink earlier or later in the most businesses.
you don't understand the business model
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