Hi two plus two. I would like some advice on my situation and going to give some information about myself. I will break this into few posts as it will be a bit long.



I'm in my mid 30s. I have been abroad basically for a good amount of the last decade playing online poker. Issue though is I make enough to pay my living expenses. I'm a low/medium stakes tourney player. Thus you can imagine the variance being a tourney player. Thus, I'm not a cash game player where it would be more stable so to speak. So before Black Friday, I played full time in the US for a short while and that was it. I didn't make that much at all but because I lived in my parent's apartment, I didn't much have expenses at all. After BF, I basically went around a few places like Vegas, and then moved outside the US to play online. I have went back to the US several times to see my family though as they are in NYC where I'm from.



I do have a finance degree from college but this was over a decade ago. I never had any job or internship experience ever. The only job I ever had was those summer jobs back when I was a teenager where they paid minimum wage and that was it. Around the time i finished college, I started playing online more and eventually did it full time before Black Friday. Now I did not make much at all but did enjoy it. I do know from what I read a lot of people after BF eventually quit and did something else as many found jobs and did other things.

Around the time, I remember my friends... who none of them played poker, only a few of them had internships but many eventually found a job. So basically they all work full time now for many years and have a house and are either married with kids or close to getting married. I'm basically the only one from our group that went abroad all these years and basically have nothing to show for. I do keep still keep in contact with them though few times because we have a group chat. The issue though is all the things they talk about.. whether its their kids or stocks or financial things... none of that relates to me.




Now I did bought some btc years ago. I have around 10 btc at the moment. Years ago I remember when it went to 3000 and couldn't believe it. Then it went to 5000 and then 10000 and then 20000. Then it went all the way down. But I didn't sell any at the time because I figure there isn't a point since I could still pay my bills and because I heard experts say it could hit 6 figures or 7 figures. Now btc has went all the way up to 50k and now 60k. So I now have 500k worth of btc at the moment. The thing is if I had a regular stable job or even did anything where I had stable income, obviously I would sell some. But because I don't have much income, does it make sense to not sell?



The thing is I don't hate playing online that much, but again I can't imagine myself doing this for another 5 plus years. Again, I'm making enough just to pay my living expenses abroad and where I'm located, expenses are very little. I mean how many 40+ year old online pros are there now full time whether they are outside the US or inside the US? That got to be in the 0.2% range or less right? Even my age range now... doesn't even make up that much percentage anymore.

Based on that information I mentioned,



1. Should I sell any btc or not? If so, how many? And if so, what should I do with the money? I certainly can't live off of that.



2. Should I go back to the US and leave abroad? Again I been abroad for so many years, so whenever I go back to the US, I only get a chance to see my old close friends few times since they work full time and have kids etc. The thing is if I go back to the US, the only place I would actually want to go back is Vegas though. So would you suggest that? I would not mind renting an apartment there and playing some live poker and some online. Obviously vegas living costs is much less than nyc but I heard the cost of rent has skyrocketed in vegas the last few years. I cannot imagine myself living in my parent's place unless I had no option. And yes I'm sure we all know those stories about poker players going broke or people going broke and then having to move back to their family's place or things like that. But doing that in your 20s isn't that bad... doing that in your 30s and 40s or even older is obviously not good. I could of course play on the US sites but I don't think I would want to do that.



3. If I go back to the US, what would you suggest me do? I can't imagine myself trying to look for a job. Again my issue is I have a degree from over a decade ago but never had any job experience or even internship. I remember I read online a while back people say that's better than having no degree. But when you been playing online poker for the last decade with not much to show for.... what could i possibly do? I don't remember a single thing i learned about finance over a decade plus ago. I have seen many stories of poker players quitting and then transitioning to finance jobs like strassa. But of course that guy is very intelligent and probably had job experience even before playing poker full time. But what about people who literally have zero job experience? Obviously I would have to start the bottom but would I even get hired for?



4. The only thing I did thought about was try cryptocurrency trading or stocking trading. Again I have no experience with this... but would try to learn. Would you suggest that? Also almost all would agree online poker is pretty much done right? I mean even great players back then no longer make the money they use to. And even today, how many full time players can clear on average 50k a year? Very small amount right? And since mtt has variance and it isn't cash, well that's another negative thing.



5. If not selling any btc now, what should be the target price before I sell any btc? Thing is I heard lot of people can make stable income staking stablecoins like usdt, usdc, gemini on those exchanges. I was literally shocked these exchanges give like 8% plus interest on these stablecoins. So essentially if you had 100,000 Usd and put that in, you earn 8,000 USD a year which to me seemed ridiculous comparing it to how much interest banks give which is basically nothing. So if you had 500,000 usd, that would earn you 40,000 usd a year which is a bit less than the average us income. So someone with a million dollars and put the stablecoin staked can earn 80.000 usd a year. That would be more than enough for most people to live off of even if they lived in NYC etc.



6. How much btc would you say one need before they could live off completely passive income right now? What about a few years from now? I heard people say 10 btc is probably the minimum you need if you live in a western country like the US. Obviously its a lot less if you are in other lower income countries. But I also heard 5 btc could be enough just few years from now.



-Roger

500K isn't a lot of money to "live off" in the US if you have no other income coming in. I wouldn't sell unless I put it into another asset or those 10 bitcoins turned into a few million.


From your posts it doesn't seem like you know what to do now, and selling bitcoin / keeping bitcoin isn't really the answer.


You need to figure out what the post poker life you want to be is. Your post poker life may or may not involve living around family and what makes you happy. Post poker profession may be something else other than finance, but it will take you time to figure that out. You may need to work really hard at that since there isn't a lot of professions out there where poker skills translate.

Personally I would not sell your BTC other than dipping in to it if you need money for expenses. Even then, it would probably be +EV to use it as collateral and get a small loan. I would also diversify. (~50/50 BTC,ETH but that's just my preference.) My guess is that your crypto portfolio will be enough to retire on in the future.

You're better off posting this in the BTC thread.

You have a low income, uncertain job prospects, and it sounds like BTC is your only asset. You should sell at least 90% of it. In your situation, having 10% of your savings in BTC would still be hyper aggressive. You've already won the BTC lottery; you should take advantage of that. I would put most of it into an ETF, or a place to live to reduce your variance. Otherwise you'll always be one dip away from moving back in with your parents.

I know 500k isn't a lot of money to live off in the US if I have no income coming in. Also after taxes, that number is probably going to be around 350k to 370k right assuming I sell everything?



Okay so the first few replies say I shouldn't sell any of it... or only sell it if I need to for expenses. That is what I was thinking as well. And to the person that said I shouldn't sell till I turn it into a few million... how many is a few million? I assume you mean 2-3 million or so? I mean if it turned into 2 million, after taxes you still net around 1.35 million or so? Certainly that is enough to live off right? If you put say a million into those stablecoins and stake them... you would earn 80,000 usd a year... which is way more than the average US income. I would certainly be satisfied with that.



So the poster above me says I should sell 90% of it. Okay if I do that, what would I do with the money? So with say 375k after taxes, and 1 btc left, what would I even do? The thing is literally all my savings is in btc now. I do not have that much saved etc. The thing was back then when I bought 10 btc or so, it was just a tiny percentage of my savings. Then as it went higher and higher, it was literally like 90%+ of my total savings. At one point I remember it being like 95% of my savings. Yea I know about the dips etc. But the thing is I always hear people say you do not make or lose money in dips until you sell.

I forgot to mention but I also have no health insurance. Yes that is another huge negative thing. So I have some big issues down the line, that is another concern. Anyone have any advice on this as well?



Also would you say someone in my situation is in a okay/bad situation for someone my age? Obviously if I didn't had any crypto, then this situation would be pretty bad as I would basically be someone barely making ends meet while abroad. I guess you can even compare to say live poker pros then who grind it out at say 2/5 live for many years and end up not having much saved from playing many years.



I believe the average mid 30 something male who has a degree in the US have a stable job and making pretty good money at this age and most likely own a house and have a wife and kids. Is that accurate to say? Most of my close friends are like this since they work regular jobs full time. But of course lot of people are still in heavy debt and I remember they mentioned the average american doesn't even have x amount on a rainy day etc. But of course very few of these everyday people invested in crypto early on and if they have btc and crypto, most likely they don't have this many btc? But the thing is I have no retirement, IRA , stocks or anything like that compared to all my close friends who have regular jobs.

It's OK to use a forum for some pointers, but people aren't going to do all the work for you. It's a common trait in young online poker pros to want to be spoon fed everything. (I say this as an ex-pro, and as a poker software developer who has interacted with thousands of players.) So my life advice would be to try to develop more independence.

OP, you have an awful lot of questions, and I'm not sure that strangers on the internet can help you.

Should you move back to the States or continue living abroad? I don't know; what do you want to do?

Should you continue playing poker or try to pursue some other career? I don't know; what do you want to do?

It sounds like you're envious of your friends who have non-poker careers and all the perks that seem to go with them: home ownership, marriage, kids, retirement savings, health insurance. If you want these things yourself, no one is stopping from you going after them. You have to decide what your goals are—no one can do that for you—and take steps to pursue them.

Maybe you need professional help—and I don't mean that in a derogatory way. A career counselor could help you explore career options outside of playing poker. (Or try reading What Color Is My Parachute?) A therapist could help you figure out what your life goals are.

The good news is you own 10 BTC, so you could be set for life financially if you play your cards right. Mind you, I am not a financial advisor, and I don't know enough about your situation and goals to offer you advice even if I were one. Everything that follows is one of several competing theories and just my opinion. Others will disagree. You need to educate yourself about what's happening in the cryptocurrency markets and decide which theory seems most compelling to you and therefore what course of action makes the most sense given your circumstances and needs.

Should you sell now? Of course not! We're maybe half to two-thirds of the way through a quadrennial bull market, but the biggest gains are going to come at the very end. The price of BTC is likely to hit $100K in the next 2-3 months and could reach a blow-off top of $200K, $300K, or more a few months after that. So your 10 BTC could be worth $2 or $3 million (briefly, before the price crashes again).

Should you sell at the peak? All of it, some of it, what percentage? And how will you know when the bull market is peaking anyway? See the YouTube video below for some ideas. You might consider selling somewhere between 1 and 5 BTC toward the end of this bull cycle. That should be more than enough to finance whatever geographical move and career change you decide to make, while still leaving you with more BTC than 99% of crypto investors and 99.9% of the world. But again, whether you sell and how much you sell depends on your financial needs and goals (and your unique tax situation), and only you can say what they are.

Now be an adult and buy some damn health insurance, OK?

Serious question; Are you happy?

Like I get it, a decade ago the appeal of going to Thailand (or wherever), playing small and mistakes tournaments and living the good life was understandably appealing. The thing is though, this is what the pro's were warning you about. This is the trap. Playing poker for a living shouldn't be about grinding small stakes to pay your bills. Thats the hamster wheel and, since poker is continually getting harder, you just ride it until you eventually fall off or wake up a decade later and realize the 'freedom' you had wasn't as free as it seemed. Can you get better in 2022 and increase your income with tougher games when you haven't been able to do that over the last decade? Probably not. Do you want kids? A wife? Its fine if the answer is no, but if the answer is yes you have to realize that you're not exactly a catch in your current state where you are just about keeping your head above water. Sure you've got $500k in liquid assets, which is probably above the median for someone in their mid 30's. But you also (seemingly) have no real disposable income and are in an area thats probably going to experience declining revenues (poker) in the next decade. With those circumstances, $500k doesn't last that long.

Very possible to go and get a job in a range of disciplines with a finance degree, even one thats ten years old. You'll be working at the bottom obviously, but I'm of the opinion that poker as a part time hustle isn't a bad thing if you're a mediocre grinder. You'll have a stable income, benefits and you'll still get to play poker in the peak evening and weekend donkey hours.

On the BTC front; don't sell it. Right now, it's the only thing you seem to have that approaches a pension/retirement plan. I personally believe it will go way higher, but if you disagree then you could diversify I guess. Bottom line though is that you really shouldn't be touching that money. Its a slippery slope from dipping in to it to maintain your 'freedom' to realizing you're 60 and have no assets, no pension plan and a low income.

Good luck.

I think it's important for you to hear that many - including myself - feel lost and don't know what to do with their lives and that's OK.
It's only natural comparing yourself to your friends from back home. Just know that they might share a similar sentiment to your life of travelling and freedom whilst they were raising kids and tied to mortgages etc.
In the grand scheme of things you're in a fine spot and not too old to dedicate yourself to something new or to put your degree to use if you wanted to. No one here is qualified to tell you what you should be doing with your life. This is a question for you to ponder, ideally by not comparing yourself to others but trying to figure out what you value and what you want your life to look like.

Wrt BTC, congrats on your diamond hands . I can imagine it might not be the best for your overall well being having 99% in a very volatile asset. I personally believe BTC will be worth significantly more in 10 years time, but I could of course easily be mistaken. It's certainly not unreasonable selling some of your stack and put it in an etf/towards the next chapter in your life. I think it's worthwhile exploring how to generate yield on some of your BTC and use these proceeds to cover your expenses. ledn.io might be a good starting point, but note that these yields are not risk free.

Best of luck with whatever is next.

this guy posts like jimmy2x or whatever his name was. ( I always thought he was troll )

Like dude no one can answer your personal questions like where you should move/what you invest in. My suggestion is start thinking about how to answer these questions for yourself instead of asking random people on a message board about very personal decisions.

Was your other account banned? Anyone remember, he would post the exact same way asking a ton of questions within huge posts.

similar thread

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...-here-1771946/

my thoughts:

- You can happily live with under 2K a month in Central-south America and some places in Asia, even with family and children.

- update your skills, now you can learn almost anything from Coursera, EDX, and even get certifications from Google, IBM, Microsoft. You can build an online portfolio and show it to employers. Lots of work and competition of course, but nothing impossible also you already have a college degree.

- sell 20-25% of your BTC and set up a business. Big chance that just holding the btc outperforms your business ROI but ain't never bad to diversify

jamest? Very reminiscent of this goat thread: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/9...ns-me-1187546/ and https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/9...anada-1077516/

OP: sell at least half the bitcoin and put it in a Vanguard fund (VTI). Start building up your skillset, network, and a career path -- look into coding or data analysis bootcamps.

Like an earlier poster said, it's normal to feel a bit lost and overwhelmed. Try to lean into that feeling and embrace the challenge, don't hide from it. And don't compare yourself to your friends; just compare yourself to who you were yesterday. Maybe read some Jordan Peterson - ask yourself, "What future action would justify my past mistakes?"

Every individual is different but some generalizations that probably apply. I'm sure a lot of people here have had to make similar decisions and thought a similar situation through

You want to start a family one day. Being single and free is an adventure up to a point. Then it becomes sad. Even Hugh Hefner the symbol of rich hedonism looked like a pathetic degenerate at one point. I don't visit bookstores irl but I imagine they still don't have 50 year olds playing cards or on their computer on the cover of romance novels. Being a 50 year old playboy isn't an option. Being a meal ticket in a 3rd world country is the closest thing.

Plan an exit strategy from poker. The great thing about playing poker is the flexibility. The great thing about formulating an exit plan around poker is its flexibility. You can transition from full time to part time etc. Poker is dead end. If you are young the freedom and opportunities can be great. If you're not young, you should be crushing or move on. You should move on

Find something you would like to do. Unless you have roots in or plan to live in LA, NY, etc, 500k is enough money to not worry much about income. AFAIK you can pretty much afford to buy a house in 95% of places. Buying a place with a rental suite will be a nice secure investment. 3-4 years in the workforce should have you earning a decent income. If you find a partner with a job, you can easily afford a million dollar home. You probably don't need to spend that much. You're fine. Your only problem is deciding your next career path.

How much bitcoin should you hold? The question is, if you look at the last paragraph and that seems like a life you'd be happy with, how much risk do you want to take? Bitcoin was at 60k in May and 30K in July. How does a 250k haircut look on a mortgage calculator etc? Although there is extreme confidence online, this whole sector is wild speculation and nobody knows the future. I would sell at least 75% and put it somewhere safe. I would also look at monetizing your remaining bitcoin. Apparently you can collect interest on them or earn money on the risk similar to a covered call.

TLDR

1. Sell at least 75% bitcoin and put that money somewhere safe

2. Pick a new career path and pursue it

3. Transition from full time to part time poker player as it fits in your schedule

4. Buy a home and have 6 figures in savings/yolo-moon bucks left over. That could also be stuck in an index fund which is already enough to grow and fund your retirement. With a home secured at a very manageable mortgage payment and your retirement funded, you now have the freedom to pursue your career and spending money to have fun. Or gamble, yolo, moon, for swimming pools, lambos, etc without the working for it part

Although there will be things you miss about being young and "free", I bet most people find actual jobs more rewarding and less stressful. You also grow your social network, friendships, dating pool, etc. You can look at your friends being way ahead of you etc but you're in a great spot. You can play it safe and have about a year or 2 of growing pains at the bottom of the ladder in the workforce and be set up with the foundation of a comfortable life to build on. You're actually set. Or you could gamble with zero control over the outcome by hoping bitcoin moons and you scrape a out a living doing something you know is not going to be positive

This also might make things more clear. They say that earning anything over 70k doesn't really make you that much more happy. I think that's a good framework for conceptualizing risk here. A doctor earning 400k can comfortably pay their mortgage, trickle money in to a retirement fund and spend on what they enjoy. What they did with 500k in bitcoin would/should be based on what they think the price of bitcoin will do. I don't think your situation or risk profile is even remotely comparable. You have so much more to lose than to gain buy being 100% long here.

Grunching here.

1. I wouldn't sell any Bitcoin if you can continue living. I personally think crypto's risk adjusted return is at it's highest value point ever presently. Very low risk (relatively) long term, still a lot of upside.

I would consider turning 20% into ETH though, but that's entirely optional. You could even stake 32 ETH if you wanted to. Not the worst idea.


2. Given your situation / circumstances, I would avoid the US at all costs. Keep cost of living as low as possible in high quality / low cost countries, keep filing for the foreign income tax exemption.


3. This is way too person dependent. I wouldn't suggest USA in general as I said, but you should consider a pivot. This needs to play to one of your strengths or things you enjoy. Only you can answer this.


4. I would not suggest trading. But DeFi stuff or the likes, sure, why not. You could do mild forms of speculation in various capacities but I'd be very careful. It's the kind of thing where if you have to ask the public, the answer is probably already no.


5. I'd look at it from a total market cap perspective and base it on price targets that you think are good relative to your prediction of the market as a whole, and also base this on your current / future needs. I'd also consider how much money you think you need in various capacities. This is too person dependent to have any random answer this for you like many of your questions.


6. Depends on where your living and your demands on quality of life. People live for sub-10k all the time. Does that make you happy in a cheap country? If so, congrats, you've already well exceeded cost escape velocity even if BTC holds still and you do the absolute minimum with your BTC in yield earning assets. If not, you have to figure out targets that make sense to you.

I'd be on the "sell what you need to get by, keep the rest" track, but I'm a believer in BTC.

As others have mentioned - job experience isn't the dead set requirement it used to be anymore. The job market is incredibly hot right now with many employers realizing they have to find talent and recruit them - not sit back and pick from an ocean of candidates. If you can get certifications through online courses, you'll be fine.

I'd say go to a low cost of living location like Central America, cash in 1 bitcoin, and spend the year upskilling. Focus on certifications and resume filler. Then start applying for jobs. You'll be just fine. Once you have a job, determine if you need to move and work on site, or can work remote. Then if you so desire, cash in enough BTC to purchase where you want to live.

As for "how am I doing". You're mid-30s with a 500K net worth. You're doing perfectly fine and are substantially better off than the average for your age.

Don't listen to this guy.

Wants you to sell bitcoin for an ETF because bitcoin might dip. He wants you to buy stocks trading at hundreds of times earnings because bitcoin is too risky.

S&P P/E is 29 right now, but we wouldn't want facts to get in the way of a good BTC circle jerk.

better than jerkin jordan peterson.

wow.. this is a super hard question that no one outside yourself can answer.
You have tried to give a financial spin on your answer based on assets and costs.

I believe a much better methodology is to really sit down and think about where you want to be in 10 or 20 years. Do you want to be married? Do you want to have kids? Do you want to live near family? Are you tired of your current lifestyle.. why you are asking this question? I mention these questions, because it is the question your friends have asked and answered for themselves.
Do you have any passion for anything? Where do you want to live? What are your passions? What are your personal non financial assets, ie can you sell, I assume you are good at analytics as all poker players are. Are you disciplined? Can you grind in a mindless job? Do you want to climb a corporate ladder? You may find some interesting answers that may redirect your life in a totally different direction. A good friend of mine (mid 40's now) is working his life around body building. None of his friends, including me, understands this, but we accept it and accept it for what it is. It is his passion. Your passion was likely poker 15 years ago.

What I am trying to say is that the answer to all these types of questions have nothing to do with you having say 600k in assets.
If you had zero dollars and wanted to be married with kids and live near family, your plan would be the same whether or not you had some assets. Look ahead into your future those 10 years. See where it is you want to be, and what you want to be doing and aim single mindedly at getting to that goal. Then work your plan backwards into small 1-2 year goals and milestones and START. You can review your goals ever year or two and make adjustments. You are not under the gun as a woman at 35 who all of a sudden decides she wants to have kids.

BTC isn't riskier/higher variance than stocks? What?

BTC has a higher Sharpe Ratio, so no.