30 year is about 2%

9% then. Last time I looked was a few months ago.

RSI is almost at 80 heading into earnings, look I get on a year over year basis it's not up that much but it traded down to the $140s in January. We already know about the buyback and flood of passive money, still the rush of upgrades is kind of nuts. Post earnings I'll be looking to get involved, still waiting for some kind of short term blow off and that seems like as good of a catalyst as any.

Air Pod Pro looks pretty sweet. I might have to hit up one of them Geniuses to hook me up.

Apple has been a horrible investment for me. Im only up 148%.

Apple hit $300 today. It has now outperformed Amazon and Microsoft for my timing anyway. Plus dividends....

What is the bear case now?

I think the bear case is Apple is overpriced for what it is (a solid cash cow) and is particularly vulnerable to disruptions to iPhone. At a PE of ~25, Apple is priced more like a growth stock and there isn't any indication that's justified given its failure to break into Indian market and stagnant unit sales growth of iPhones. That makes the stock a hold at best IMO. I am also concerned Apple is particularly vulnerable to a Samsung Note exploding battery fiasco/recall that causes Apple to basically lose an entire product cycle.

The bull case I think is Apple's user base continues to grow (a lot of stagnant unit sales is caused by product cycles lengthening from 1-2 years to 2-3 years) and Apple may still have a lot of room to monetize the user base.

I thought it was a good buy at ~12 P/E as one of the best cows in the world but now I am more like... meh.

Market P/E is at 25 so they're valued as if they will perform in line with the market. Although I admit I'm not a buyer /adder at these levels either.

hiya total returns (dividends reinvested) using your (objectively bad-timed) starting date for apple:

$AAPL: 28.6%
$MSFT: 26.8%

Apple gets crushed by Microsoft and the Nasdaq for 5+ years since the debate started
It briefly gets hyperinflated as a headline stock in a fed-inflated market and nudges just above
Bulls jump in to declare victory after years of silence.

If anything shows that the bulls were amazing wrong, that is it. Everything went right for Apple and did no better than follow the market. You had ZERO chance of meaningful performance with high downside risk should a recession happen (Apple is a luxury good priced on 40% margins that are completely unsustainable in a recession). That the definition of a dumb bet.

Congratulations though and if you take all your profit now, I highly doubt you'll regret it. If you had $1.3 trillion dollars there is zero chance you'd own Apple because there isn't the return to justify it, especially given the risk, so why would own a fraction of it?

hurr durr

lol tard

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2019/...ple-investors/

I'm pretty sure the market has stopped caring about anything

Apple in beast mode.

Remember when people in the thread were predicting disaster in 2013? because lol "iOS7 is a disaster?"

Not bad for a hardware company.

This aged horribly

Even if Microsoft was up more than Apple if you go back exactly 5 years from today (which its not), that doesnt mean Apple bulls were lol horribly wrong. I hope all my investments that are up over %300 in five years are “amazingly wrong” lol.

I bought both. Both have crushed.

Microsoft rumored to be in talks of taking over the US side of tik tok. Win win.

Um, what?



Microsoft still kicking the living **** out of Apple on the 5 year, even after Apple got a massive boost from being a corona haven (thanks, giant stimulus checks and people stuck at home).

It's certainly turned out better than I expected, but it's really just been part of a tech bubble run. Apple fundamentals (and growth) are horrible for its valuation. They were horrible 100% lower, but bubbles are bubbles and they have a mind of their own.

And yet you're only a buttboy for Apple. You never cheerlead about the one that crushed Apple and that I suggested to buy instead of Apple.

The Microsoft grand tradition of horrible acquisitions continues, sadly. Maybe this one will actually work for them. Not hopeful.

You only cost them about $310 million dollars not including dividends. If all dividends were reinvested probably closer to a billion dollars.

MSFT going into a casual social media business is a sign of desperation.

I don't have an opinion, personally, but I'm curious why you think that.

Tooth going on here about how he was right because MSFT outperformed AAPL seems like super dishonest revisionist history. I don't see him in this thread arguing for MSFT as an investment - his references to Microsoft were almost entirely about how Microsoft with their tablet offerings and maybe Windows Phone, present a major existential risk for Apple. Which is not quite how things played out. MSFT's resurgence is mostly about Azure and Office and has little to do with Tooth's thesis here. It seems like a few years ago, after all the things he predicted never came to pass, Tooth pivoted to "MSFT vs AAPL" stock performance, which wasn't why he went on about Microsoft here. The point was Microsoft as a competitor and an existential risk, not as as a stock comp.

Fading Tooth has been an absolutely incredible run

Apple, Netflix, Bitcoin, Tesla

oof

He's perpetually lost, feel bad for him

Not at all; it was broad months-long discussion when Apple was $700 (pre-split) and Microsoft $25. I was harping on Microsoft being undervalued and Apple being a bad buy.

The truth is I called you out as a fraud in another thread, and now despite a supposed busy wall street job you're spending time trawling (dishonestly) my post history?

That was what was discussed in the Apple thread. I was banging on Microsoft like crazy in other threads and mocking Apple. So nice try bro, but I posted about it so much when it was $25 and Wall Street was convinced it was "dead money" that I was actually pissing everyone off at the time with how much I liked it.

The iPad certainly died a bad death. The iPhone however has continued to do very well.

Netflix and Apple have definitely run longer than I thought they would. My posted positions in the Netflix thread crushed overall (hundreds of percent cumulatively).

Apple has performed terribly relative to alternatives despite everything going right for it.

I've crushed both bitcoin and Tesla. If you faded me on bitcoin (I said it was a "strong buy" at $250 and twice called tops), you'd be broke. If you faded me on Tesla you'd be about -1000% given my options performance. Do you not realize that fading means "taking the opposite side of"?

hahaha

to be fair he's not 'lost' he's a troll

the trolls playbook is to never back down and forever take the contrarian view no matter how badly and how long they get owned

you shouldn't feel bad for because of his losing positions but for the fact that trolling 2+2 is the most important thing in his life

sad!