Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
Truthsayer, you've been consistently wrong about Apple. Going on 5 years now.
Well, we haven't had a recession yet. On the long term performance? I've been spot on. On short/short-medium term trends? I've been close to dead wrong. I can't pick Apple at all.
Long term, my main argument that we talked about a lot was that Microsoft was better value than Apple and had more room to run. I got laughed at for that. Result (for 5 years):
Apple has had a perfect world unfold (no recessions, competitors getting unlucky (Samsung battery fires), 2nd world continuing to grow rapidly economically, which they need just to keep their current valuation), and yet has underperformed the NASDAQ substantially on that time frame.
My second claim was that Apple profit was destined to shrink a huge amount. Apple's margins just aren't sustainable as technology changes and competitors get bolder. No one can keep pulling 40% profit out of a hardware market indefinitely, and the services business can't replace almost 40%, $300/phone pure profit. That has yet to play out. Other businesses, like Google and Microsoft, have reliable margins and huge moats. Apple has nothing except the iPhone. Apple is a luxury items bubble that grew up in the aftermath of the GFC. The world will change, perhaps triggered by another recession, and Apple has no moat, not at 40% margin, nor do they have talent or innovation.
If you want to crow about underperforming the NASDAQ, then that's your right, but all that's happened is that Apple has followed a growing economy and ultra long bull stock market higher and higher, in a way that's done worse than the rest of tech. It was a stupid buy 5 years ago compared to alternatives like Microsoft, and it's an even more stupid buy right now.
Last edited by ToothSayer; 05-10-2017 at 08:11 PM.