Quote:
Originally Posted by TeflonDawg
All this nonsense about being cash, owning gold, should I wait for the PS5 or buy the PS4...First of all, the analogy doesn't work because you can't time the market. Owning gold is a terrible long term ROI and cash loses to inflation and the opportunity cost of not being invested immediately. Unless you're the smartest person in the room and know what you're doing, timing the market is a fool's errand. Sitting in cash is only worth it if you pounce on an opportunity with a higher ROI to make up for the time you sat in cash losing to inflation and return you would've accrued while being in whatever you could've been in. Most people asking advice on retirement or long term savings are just normal people with a job, family, and maybe some assets. They don't have the time, inclination, or desire to put in the effort required to manage their money, and it's probably best that they don't anyway. Not always the case, but doing so could be the biggest mistake they ever make their entire life.
Just buy a Vanguard Target Date Fund (or TRowe, Fidelity, Schwab, any reputable company with low fees) and stop wasting your time reading this thread. Target Date Funds do all the work for you, make it impossible for you to **** your own money up and it's all at minimal cost.
The only cash people should sit on is 6-12 months of rough living expenses in case they get laid off or the unforeseen happens. Everything after that should be invested or used to eliminate debt, entity with the highest yielding interest first.
Totally, the thing is efficient as ****. And its not like youre using the word in its own definition there.
Jesus, i just read more of your post. You are an EMH parrot or something?
Owning gold is not a terrible idea. But yes, obviously ROI is bad. It doesn't throw off cash flow... If you have complete faith in the powers that be, then by all means own US debt and DCA your way into greater fool markets that climb the wall of worry and flush when it gets bad.
To be clear, the normal people you talk about are the fish in the markets. Do you think the market exists to be a place for you to put your retirement savings? No. It exists to take your money. Do you think the finance industry proposes you steadily build that 401k because long term buy and hold is the only real winning strategy in the markets? No, it is because it serves their purposes...Wall Street has convinced Main Street to buy and hold (and always buy) so that they have someone to sell to when SHTF.
Its a game, its a racket:
1. play with house money (ty TARP)
2. lie stealand cheat (ty WFC, BAC, the list goes on...MBS, robo signing, etc)
3. sell to the suckers
4. blow the thing up and generate "system risks"
5. get bailed out
6 rinse was and repeat
For a long term investor it is actually easier than for a trader. I was young and just out of school back then. But now I know. '08 and all the printing, all the rate shenanigans.
Very obvious point at which a patient rational investor could have timed the market.
Own some corporate and government debt in the mean time. Buy some real estate. Buy or start a small business. All of these are fine. But the notion that it is a good idea to just constantly funnel money into the markets because that is what they teach you in school and what your FA tells you to do is ******ed and it is what I am speaking out against here. Trying to help everyone.
Your FA is a frat boy in a suit who doesn't have a clue what is doing and probably failed statistics. But he sure can talk the back office's book and help you color in circles on that risk profile.
Last edited by rand; 10-29-2018 at 05:36 PM.