They were the first movers.. Now maybe it's a lot of the other stuff that lagged behind that will make the next move. Could very well be the index doesn't move much or stays flat. The people who come in late get crushed like usual in the high flyers but everything that lagged behind goes up a lot but doesnt move the needle much as like when the big tech stocks move.

Last time around a lot of tech, meme stocks, spacs, crypto made the first move too, then went nowhere/got crushed and a big rotation happened.

Very possible.

Big rotation today. It was nice to see it for a change.

A couple of stocks Salesforce, Adobe, Lululemon, they went back to their former high and even made a new high and they've given a lot of it back.

I think that thought maybe put a shiver, through the spine of a lot of tech investors today.

I think what was also quit interesting about today, is that the market is obviously extremely aware, that the rally hasn't been broad.

It was so bizarrely out of tune, with what we've seen since the Sep 2022 low.

I also think the index kind of just stays flat until we get cuts.

I think the cuts could end up being a sell the news event.

I've given up on a broadening. I think this past year and a half has been a rally in a bear market, that will ultimately roll over next year.

A couple of other stocks getting pounded after hours.

Dell down 16% Mongo DB down 25%.

Cyber Security has been rolling over for a while.

Technicals deteriorating under the surface.

Six stocks now make up 30% of the S and P.

They kill the troops first and the generals last.

The patient is sick.

I missed out on the Berkshire Hathaway 99.97% off sale.

NVDA surpasses AAPL in market cap. $4T plausible? 5?

The market is in a really bad place, where it keeps putting more and more money into big safe names, like Microsoft and Nvidia, which don't need investor capital. They are already extremely profitable.

Then you have other companies like Unity, Beyond Meat, Teladoc etc, which aren't profitable, but have potential if they were given money to expand, but investors have no interest.

Investors only want to buy the big, safe moats, but everybody is doing that and those names are bubbles now. There is no yield in them.

Paypal PYPL just got a bunch of upgrades. They have a new CEO and are buying back over 5 billion dollars of stock this year alone. About 4 percent of the daily volume every trading day. Stock down 10 percent last week but only 2 percent for the year. Cheap options. Down 80 percent from Covid high. I think its ready to rally.

Stocks outside of the top 5 trade like aids.

I thought about buying Jack in the Box today, a nice business, good valuation, healthy financials, but saw it was immediately down 5% on the open, so didn't even bother.

I read the last time the market has been this concentrated was the great depression, where people used the top 5 as cash like instruments.

this is starting to feel very 2000ish

although i guess rates have a lot of room to come down to power the next leg of the bull

I think it's likely that the last 2 years has been a rally in a bear market, that will roll over some time this year. If you look at the great recoveries of the past think 1990 or 2009, that resulted in decade long stock market expansions, they were categorised by great breath and small caps surging off the lows.

But, breath has been awful and small caps aren't even on the playing field.





I think it's possible that Bitcoin has topped here and is heading down to 10k, over the next 2 years, an 83% correction from here.

Energy looks like it is silent leadership. Oil has been basing at 82 dollars a barrel for 2 years now, they can't kill it and sometime in the next 18 months, I think it could go ballistic, fuelled by rate cuts, that could spark some kind of an inflationary depression, for the economy.

I think there's an opportunity in Nike here, which is one of my favorite brands.

The stock is down 20% after earnings and is down more than 50% from it's previous all time high.

It's currently trading at 20 times earnings, which isn't cheap, but the business is really the cream of the cream.

Huh? Not sure what you wrote after this because after this statement whatever you have to say is meaningless. You "typically" don't hit all-time highs in a bear market. Maybe I don't know what a bear market is? But I am pretty sure they don't usually entail RECORD highs in the market. Bull markets must really be awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah we are due for a correction. But calling all-time highs a bear market bounce pretty much means you are ******ed.

Not necessarily.

In 1971 and 2003 markets crashed, and they made a full recovery, even going on to make new highs, but then in 1974 and 2009 all the recovery was lost back and more.

There's a guy out there called Gene Munster, who I really respect as well and he thinks that AI is going to produce a huge bubble, over the next 2 to 3 years, which I guess could happen as well.

Although, I do tend to think that his opinion is probably slightly biased, because he runs a tech fund at Loop Capital.

If the S & P hits 5700 I guess the bears are offically dead.

There have been a number of stocks, which have been mentioned in this thread Nike, Starbucks, Disney, Alibaba, PayPal, General Mills, Hershey, Capri, Baxter, Spirit Airlines, Big Powerful companies that have always performed tremendously in every bull market, but over the past 2 years they haven't been able to get off the mat. That's why I hesitate to even call this a Bull Market.

Some people say that the market will broaden, but I don't think that investors are going to get to have their cake and eat it too. To me these charts look broken and will take years and years to repair.

I think the big guys NVidia, Meta etc, they are in the process of topping here. A Trump presidency is not good for Meta. While Biden has said that he will ban TikTok, if congress passes a bill to ban the app, Trump has said that he will not. TikTok is also planning on launching a competitor to Instagram.

Meta sucks - I bought the dip under $100 but I sold way too early - i hate the company. It adds very little value to anyones quality of life.

I think BABA could get over $100 at some point in the future but it seems to do nothing.

Yes, Meta shouldn't even be called a tech company. So, you can post a photo. You can do that on Two Plus Two.

A huge number of stocks have Babas chart pattern, where they went parabolic during Covid and then they returned to their March 2020 lows.

Zillow, Snap, Roku, I could list another 100.

I think they are all dead money, their charts are completely broken, but will probably come back, in the next bull market.

edit: this whole post appears a non-sequitur. could've sworn maximus posted something on FAANGs, but maybe it's been deleted or i hallucinated everything.

AAPL could be a terrible investment but don't know if it's accurate to say they're not in the AI race. they have announced the most (imo) advanced/cohesive AI integration strategy for their phones in partnership with OpenAI. they're also developing their own AI chips.

YouTube no ads subscription is cheaper than NFLX's, whose moat is least obvious to me in the sense it needs to generate all its content, spends $100b+ annually to do so, already has plenty of competitors offering similar product, and the specter of Sora looms.

Google does seem vulnerable... conventional search engines will die soon. while the presumption has been they will roll out competitive AI products, what they've shipped has been full of flaws and constantly being retracted. several employees have complained their company's AI strategy is not cohesive in the least and they've been pressured to release AI products prematurely to meet investor demand, which seems a bad sign.

Can't speak to AMZN but having a monopoly on the online drop shipping market seems a good place to be.

Agree FB is dirt.

there will always be legacy companies that have historically performed well in bull markets but no longer. the nature of survivorship bias. doesn't mean we're in a bear market.

NVIDIA, MSFT, FAANG have all decoupled from market fundamentals. it's one big bet on AI being transformative technology that reaps windfall gains at the expense of human labor. if you believe this is largely correct you should probably be all-in in the near term. if you believe this is premature bubble a la dot com bubble you should be short or on the sidelines.

if AGI investment theses do come true (which to me is a question of when not if), it's interesting to consider second-order effects: if gains from replacing massive amounts of labor costs accrue to a few companies, is that politically acceptable? large social unrest from job displacement could spur calls for higher corporate tax rates, UBI, etc.

Yes thanks, you did not hallucinate. I wrote a post, but decided to delete it. It was mainly about how I don't think FAANG is as impenetrable as the market makes out or is betting on.

In the late 1990s, there were four mega-cap stocks, which dominated the market Microsoft, Intel, Cisco and Dell Computer. They were known as the Four Horsemen, because of their unquestioned market dominance.

Three years later the S&P 500 index (SPY) lost half its value.

But yeah, getting back to the magnificent 7, not being as magnificent as they seem, I often here people asking Buffett why didn't you buy Google. Why don't you buy Amazon. What are you doing over there all day.

Funnily enough, they never ask him why didn't you buy Ebay, Yahoo or Nokia.

There's always risk when you buy a stock. Even with Coca Cola. In Ireland, now we have a sugar tax, so coke has taken a lot of sugar out of coca cola. It tastes like garbage. There's also an annoying plastic levy that you have to pay. You have to return the bottle back to the store to get your money back.

Mag 7 are being treated like impenetrable, bond like instruments and that just isn't the case.

If Microsoft, NVidia and Apple were to double from here their market capitilastion would be 78% of US GDP.

It wouldn't make any sense.

So you could have 2 scenarios, where either returns start to become very low or we have some kind of a crash.

I would bet on a crash, because it's just not in Wall Street's nature to be subdued. It's the biggest Diva you've ever met in your whole entire life.

I actually just did a Google Gemini chatbot search for the Dow Components and it gave me a bunch of links.

It shows that Google is really vulnerable and struggling here, not wanting to move away from it's link based cash cow.




Perplexity's chatbot on the other hand, which isn't even in the Nasdaq, just gives you the answer.



Microsoft's copilot not great either. It gave me ten of the companies wanting to give me a link, so they could make money to find out the other 20.