If it was incorrect the Federal Reserve could print a million dollars for every American citizen, send it to them in their mailbox and we'd all be rich.

Anyways the markets looking too rich for my blood.

I'm going to try to wait for a better spot.

Best of luck to everyone who is still long.

Haven't been here in a while but randomly wanted to chime in: Took a 6 figure hit on SAVE (which I believe is the last thing I posted about when I was on here) but have still managed to have a really good year and my accounts are all at all time highs currently. Go me, haha. I unfortunately got my ass kicked in April since I completely underestimated the whole Iran / Israel thing and what it would do to the markets but May has been really good so far, and the first 3 months of the year were phenomonal.

NVDA earnings this week going to be interesting. I really like MU right now, I think it's getting ready to breakout and good NVDA earnings could push it higher. Likewise with VRT although it might need a little bit more time to consolidate. Also kind of like VST now that it's pulled back a bit, but again, may need to consolidate. But I like MU VRT and VST as sympathy plays for NVDA and prefer that to gambling on NVDA outright I think with respect to earnings.

I think NVDA earnings are going to be really good but I don't necessarily think that's going to immediately translate into a huge move in the stock just because I think there are going to be so many people gambling on it one way or the other and when trades are really crowded like that I think there's an elevated possibility that we just get a vol collapse and the Citadels of the world print. Could be wrong about that but actually own a fair amount of the underlying just as a buy and hold type thing but not planning on playing any of the options really. I do think they have a lot of room to revise upward, if you look at hyperscaler comments re: capex and compare that to NVDA's forward earning guidance per analysts there's a lot of room for NVDA to beat and raise, assuming they're getting the lions share of the market (which they are).

Also absolutely do not think that AI is a bubble. I've noticed that a lot of value type people are extremely dismissive of new advances in tech, which I don't think is a good attitude to have. Part of your job as a trader is to be open minded and intellectually curious - if you're not doing that, you're not doing your job. Just my two cents. But immediately being dismissive towards new advances in tech is not a good way to make money, imo the best money is made in innovation and it always will be.

Also I think AMD is a turd and may have already been checkmated by NVDA, but going to wait for the right spot to bet against it. We'll see what happens though.

One other thing I'm looking at right now is banks with a lot of CRE exposure, it's kind of a complicated area but I've seen some pretty convincing analysis that a lot of banks are playing the "extend and pretend" game and are underreserved for their CRE liability. Not expecting a 2008 style meltdown or anything like that but at the same time I think there are issues and there could potentially be a lot of money to be made there if you get the timing right. So far I just have puts on BAC and MTB but looking at others. If anyone has any insights here I'm all ears.

Exxonn is allowed to merge with Pioneer, but Save isn't allowed to merge with JetBlue. It's so dumb.

Prices of goods and services increasing = inflation.

We've had inflation over the last two years. Money supply has decreased over the last two years. If money supply increase = inflation, then reality must be incorrect.

It is that simple. Either you believe reality is correct or your model is correct.

"What would happen if" mental masturbation < real data.

Glad that you are ok. I am old, but otherwise doing well.

I haven't really been following along, but since you believe that prices are (and have been) going up because of central banks, you aren't (and haven't been) 100+% long?!?

I always feel like a permabear and can ALWAYS come up with at least one or two or a dozen macro-economic reasons why the market is definitely going to crash soon.

Fortunately for my net worth, I am smart enough to realize that I'm not smart enough to depend on my macro takes to make investment and trading decisions.

Pretty sure the data you are referencing is from 2020 or 2021 and then we've had the 4 slowest years of development in recorded history. Still to early to say we've reached a bottleneck already, but certainly trending that way.


If we are talking exponential growth then leaning on quantum computing is dubious because we are a ways off from reliable quantum computing being readily or economically available

Yes I've been 100 percent long. Either I am the greatest investor of all time heir apparent to Warren Buffett or we are in a bubble. I like to have a little bit of confidence, but would go with the latter.

Results starting to go way down. Just can't really see any opportunies/good spots in the market anymore.

My feeling is once a decade the market gives you a great buying opportunity and a great selling opportunity.

I think this is the once in a decade where the market is giving you a really good opportunity to sell at valuations that are more than what they are worth.

The Wall Steet Scum doesn't give you that opportunity very often.

If it keeps pumping it will soon be the most valuable company in the world.

It's the big tech company I like the most.

But, will the other FAANG names keep spending as much on their GPUs every single year. That's the concern that I would have.

I think long term you are right to be concerned about the banks.

But in my opinion they should be fine for the next 2 years if the Fed starts cutting rates.

I've noticed Banks of America's buy backs have been way down the past 2 years, probably because they are anticipating some kind of a recession.

In the next 2 years I think their buy backs will go way way up and that's why you are seeing a big increase in the shares.

I wasn't relying on it

There is a huge short term problem looming for growth in computing but that is the energy requirements rather than anything to do with moore's law etc. Here'sa recent news snippit that demonstates the constraint
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj5ll89dy2mo
It still wont stop the growth but it's going to add costs for a while

Elon Musk talking about an electricity shortage, because of AI.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRJmqJqPH80

General Electric has been a rocket.

New I should have bought.

They used to write articles like this about crypto too. The cheapest energy doesn't have the grid to support it but somewhere like the US has about 50,000,000 homes worth of surplus power and could (relatively) easily spin up more

Elon is a moron grifter whos specific goal with tweeting is to say misleading things that morons on twitter emotionally connect with

If he is saying something on twitter there is a significant likelyhood its just completely wrong

Energy is sort of an issue for crypto but crypto is small change compared to the demands coming from AI etc.

They write these artticles because energy costs are very significant and face government pushback because of climate change. Much will be handled by moving to cleaner energy but that's still a drag on growth.

wouldn't the most relevant measure here be the sum of top 500? despite "slowest development in recorded history" FLOPS still increased 300% from 2020-2024 which is doubling every ~2 years. that trend has been pretty consistent the last ten years.



reminder these are all log scales. with investment going from billions to trillions it's hard to argue these models won't continue growing compute exponentially, it's just a question of what the exact growth rate is and -- bigger question -- whether that translates to impressive capabilities gains as it has so far.

Chinese stocks are still attractive. I've been buying a lot of BABA and NIO - But I agree the USA market is ether a short or just sit and wait. I have some targets for 5600 on SPX but i'd rather just sit out.

I took a loss on Alibaba myself, which is something I almost never do. It was just trading so horribly and the regulatory environment was so murky, that I decided that I had to let it go.

5600 is a level I've been thinking about too. At that level the S and P 500 will be back to it's pe 2021 peak, which was just before the meltdown that happened in 2022.

The S and P 500s PE is currently 26.54 or a yield of 3.6%.

Historically it's high. In 1999 before the dot com crash, it's yield was 3.52%

Warren Buffett has also been a net seller of stocks for the past 6 quarters.

Semi conductors relative to the S and P back to their 2000 peak.



To the naked eye the market looks healthy, but when you look under the microscope it's a few key names Nvidia, Microsoft etc doing all of the lifting.



In a healthy market there would be broad participation and natural pull backs that happen all of the time. It would be climbing a wall of worry. But we never get any pullbacks.

To me the patient is sick and the market will ultimately roll over back into a bear market next year.

Also, I'm really interested to see what happens with the dollar, when the Fed starts cutting rates.

For example, I am in Ireland where our currency is the euro. Getting 5% interest on US dollars is really nice, but when the Fed cuts rates, there's no point in me holding them anymore, exposing myself to the foreign exchange risk.

It's possible the dollar could get a pummeling and commodities could reflate.

Now do based on valuations not just the chart vs 2000. It's nowhere near 2000 peak hype in tech. and add Lucent Tech to that list.

Netflix 5 billion earnings into 280 billion market cap.

Intuit 2 billion earnings into 180 billion market cap.

Intuitive surgical 1.4 billion earnings into 140 billion market cap.

Palo Alto 400 million earnings into 100 billion market cap.

The list goes on and on.

A new decade bull market doesn't make mathematical sense.

After 4 rounds of QE, I think inflation is deeply entrenched in the US economy and it will be the story that drives this decade.