TPR just reported the other day and Mgmt said they expect to close it this year, so not during Q1 presumably but later so you've seen CPRI back off a little due to that delay [time value of money].

So if it closed at year-end, you're talking about a ~$1.75-2.0 drop which has already happened, ceteris paribus.

TPR CEO also spoke about how important Capri would be to improve their European sales where the Coach name brand doesn't resonate like Kors, et al.

The entire rationale for this 'arb' is that the risk of regulators suing to block this deal is way less than the market currently has it priced. You makes your bet and you takes your chances -- as with TWTR.

Delaware courts have only let one deal in history be dropped due to a MAC clause, they won't let it happen here and TPR seems highly committed to this deal for a multitude of reasons.

Hope you're doing well also, bills.

Not many days my pa has been up 2.4% outside of 99-00 and 08-09.
MA up 2.2%
BKNG up 3.1% [reports later]
APO up 2.5
LLY up 3.5
SPGI up 2.4
ICLR up 12.3
CBOE up 2.2
NFLX up 1.9

oh yeah, NVDA/ARM doing okay. I'll take it.

[QUOTE=NajdorfDefense;58473302]TPR just reported the other day and Mgmt said they expect to close it this year, so not during Q1 presumably but later so you've seen CPRI back off a little due to that delay [time value of money].

So if it closed at year-end, you're talking about a ~$1.75-2.0 drop which has already happened, ceteris paribus./QUOTE]

So what in your "ceteris paribus" do you think is no longer ceteris paribus to account for the additional $5 drop since China's approval?

Gold had a really nice day on Friday. Looks like it's heading to new highs.

Japan (EWJ), Biotech (XBI), and NVidia look like they will be leadership for the rest of the year.

Apple and Google are to be avoided.

I tested out the Google Gemini first hand. It was pretty bad. I asked it to make something along lines of "Family at church". It said "Sorry I can not show places of worship". It was also biased towards certain races over others. If I recall it would generate me images of black people. But If i asked it to White or Asian it said "i can not do images based on ethnicity".

Wouldn't touch google at the moment. Facebook is releasing their video to AI probably sometimes this year or next. I would stick META and Nvidia.

I agree

I am loaded up on TILRAY. For a dollar I feel like it's worth a gamble. Not much downside and possible huge upside. Freerolling pretty much this year so wanted to gamble a bit.

Haha, the gambling instinct is very strong.

I'm trying not to spew into Dogecoin.

For the people who do like to gamble , will altcoins join the party this year? History suggests that they will.



Altcoin market cap at various points following previous Halvings:

Speaking of altcoins, I'm long pepecoin : 0xa9e8acf069c58aec8825542845fd754e41a9489a

https://www.pepecoin.io/

Their whitepaper, website, and whole schtick is fantastic

If BTC goes to 100k altcoins with go with it to some extent.

I have always wanted to learn about trading. However, how can someone make money by short term trading when they are competing against these big institutional investors and also market makers? Take Goldman Sachs, when they execute an order for a customer, they already have the other side locked in, therefore they are a market maker, not a trader.

Yes. It all comes down to timeframe. When I first started making markets in the pit I realized I was taking the opposite side of the biggest money and funds in the world. How can that be good? Because we had different goals and timeframes. Their goal was to hedge or accumulate or diversify or liquidate or any other of a million reasons. My goal as a market maker was to get the edge and lock it in and move on to the next trade. So the market maker has a miniscule time frame and the institution has an infinite time frame. For the speculator/day trader they have to find a niche between these 2 opponents. It isn't easy and it takes a lot of painful experience but it can be done. All depends on if you can find that niche and go through all of the trials and tribulations to get there. Most aren't willing to put in the time and effort with a steep learning curve.

Thank you very much for your reply. I know many people must say this about themselves, but I have a genuine desire to learn. I have always had the mentality of to 'accumulate assets' over my life but I have never learned about trading. Do you have any recommendations about anything good to read or learn? Did you ever work on the NYFE?

No NYFE, I was at both the CBOT and CME both in options and futures before I moved upstairs to screen trading. There are a million books and approaches. Most are pure crap. Check out the "what the hell should I read" thread stickyed at the top of this page. One of my favorite books is The Way of the Turtle by Curtis Faith. I have always been most interested in trend following and breakout trading. There are an infinite number of ways and timeframes to trade in as well as trading vehicles. You have to figure out what parts of the market interest you and what approaches fit your own personal trading mentality. I firmly believe that any trading approach has to be personalized to each persons mentality, risk tolerance, goals etc. So what works for one guy may not work for another due to a variety of reasons. You have to make your own approach that fits you.

Adding to Mr. B's thoughts:

You can buy stuff willy-nilly. VTI and chill is nice.

Beyond that, from easy to impossible:

You can take advantage of risk premia that vary over time, such as some carry trades, trend/momentum trades or value trades.

You can take advantage of forced or price-insensitive buyers/sellers.

You can find the occasional weird price anomalies/relationships that work for a while.

You can be galaxy-brain smart and understand macroeconomics and develop a pricing model that takes into account 400,000 variables and something or other that no one has effectively figured out yet.

Yes. In poker if you decide that you're just going to start playing like Tom Dwan you're going to get slaughtered.

In poker every hand is different because the opponent that you are playing against is different.

Trading is the same. There's not really a book that you can read. Every trade is different. It changes as the macro changes, the theme in the market changes, the trend and the mood of the market changes, the competition changes.

I thought there was a MJ stock thread but I can't find it with the search tool.

bumped it for you

$50 to $47 is down $3 since OP.

I would assume some risk arbs have exited this trade when it got bumped from Q1 to possibly the very end of the year.

I have added to this trade. I seriously doubt TPR's CEO is in the habit of lying to the Street and then getting sued by everyone in sight. Of course, the FTC could make another mistake and try to block this and then lose again. That is still the main risk.

Basic fundamental question on oil stocks: Why do the servicers (HAL, SLB) move basically in lockstep with the rest of XLE. I haven't done much looking into this, but I brought up the charts for the past few years of HAL, SLB, XLE, XOM, and they're all basically the same. Imagine a scenario, like we had around 2014, where there's a ton of drilling going on, and way too much supply, so oil price plummets, and XLE eats ****, but all these drillers still need to service their wells, so the servicers should be making a killing from all the oil supply that's driving prices and profits down for the E&Ps. But I don't really see that in the charts. It just seems like when oil prices go up, servicers go up. And when oil prices go down, servicers go down.

I realize that when oil prices rise, it means E&Ps are likely to drill more in the future, and hence will need to contract more services. But looking further into the future, the added supply will lower prices, and hence they'll drill less and need less services. And these linkages don't seem all that rigid—whether oil is $70 or $90, the vast majority of producers will keep producing, and producers today are much more disciplined about oversupply than they've been historically. So I don't really see why producers and servicers don't trade more divergently.

Right now I think oil is kind of overbought, and there's tons of capacity, and lots of countries are drilling domestically for energy security. That's a bad backdrop to own XLE, but it seems like a good backdrop to own SLB. Yet, looking at historic performance, I'm not confident there would be any difference in stock performance no matter which I buy.

HAL & SLB do trade at higher p/e vs. most oil companies + shale oil moves much faster

The price of a barrel of oil was a dollar in 1945. Oil prices rise because of an expansion in the money supply.

Warren Buffett wouldn't own 19 billion dollars of Chevron and 15 billion dollars of Occidental Petroleum if he thought oil prices were going to fall.

The Fed got inflation down to a 3 and are now signaling rate cuts.

Gold has left the station, but it's still not to late to buy silver and other commodities, before the explosive move up.

Pretty sure demand has changed since 1945, ymmv.