You can't say the market hasn't broadened out after last year, stock I hold that have made 52w highs the past couple of days that aren't Mag7: DKNG, VZ, COST, MA, BKNG, GD, APO, CAT, NOW, ABBV, CBOE, NFLX, SPGI, MCD.

I am glad that I can't understand being proud of or bragging about a trade or getting happiness from someone else's trade that hasn't worked out.

Happiness is a disease.

Trading is an ancient exchange mechanism seeped in ritual. It is very worthwhile and also can’t be controlled, which is why governments and officials hate it.

Religions are seeping with ritual. Therfore trading is a...

And so...

General Motors could be worth getting involved here. Mary Barra is a terrific CEO and she has done an amazing job turning that company around. They are reporting Tuesday. The Market Cap is 50 Billion and they are currently doing a 10 billion dollar buyback. So, if the stock stays here they will be buying back 20 percent of their outstanding shares.

They will have 10 billion in net income this year and did the same in 2022 and 2021. Interest rates will start coming down this year, which should increase demand in the auto industry in 2025 and 2026.

I mean that is a very convincing up arrow.

Yes.

A Classic Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern.

Not much of a drift these days...

As of Friday over 70% of s&p 500 stocks were over their 200 day sma. Pretty broad.

The broadening really ended in late December. The Russell 2000 is actually down 2.50 percent on the year.



Friday's jobs report was not good news for the market. I think there is no chance the Fed now cuts in March and maybe we don't even get a cut in May.

That means that its possible that we have to wait until June to get a cut.

I think the market is going to start to get very nervous about this and the potential that the Fed makes a mistake and creates a hard landing.

I think 5000 is as high as we go on the S and P this month and then we have a correction down to 4600.

Higher for longer is bad news for the banks. New York Community Bancorp blew up just last week. I think shorting the BKX is the play.

R2K is not what you want to look at for S&P 500 breadth. You'd want to look at S&P 500 breadth, because it is itself.

lol

I don't like the look of the US market at all anymore. It looks like it's an extreme bubble/end of cycle.

I'm moving all of my chips over to Japan. Their market is very attractive in terms of valuaion and it looks like they are at the beginning of a bull market that could go on for years and years and years.

Moving everything is often a mistake. Overweighting/underweighting various risk assets is at least a bit less risky, and possibly gets higher CAGR over the long run. Plus, it makes it harder emotionally/behaviorally to change gears when the market tells you your hypothesis was wrong.

Fintwit is completely filled with people arguing about market breadth right now. Since Dec, RSP (a halfway decent proxy for breadth) isn't doing so great. The pretty graph people are calling for a drawdown and seem more certain than is probably warranted. The more math oriented people (and the ones who do math and pretty graphs) are saying that breadth sometimes matters, but not enough to warrant a bet against momentum.

I did a quick backtest using momentum (did SPY beat Treasury bills) and an over-simplified BS measure of breadth (did at least 3 sector ETFs beat Treasury bills) over the last 12 months. Literally, are we higher (incl. dividends) than we were 12 months ago compared to Treasury bill returns. Check and trade once every 30 calendar days:




Red line is equity curve for that simple (dumb) strategy. Blue is SPY tr. Yellow is SPY drawdown and grey is strategy drawdown. Growth left axis and drawdowns are right axis.

It isn't over-fit or optimized at all. That graph is the results of the first and only test I have done. I've no idea whether what it would look like for different time frames or using a SMA or using a less silly measure of breadth. 12 month lookback period does have a lot of support in the literature, so there is that.

Why don’t you just believe in God; it graph’s out as being just as ridiculous. And there is lots of literature to back it up.

In the US it's just a continuation of last year. It's an AI market.

I thought the US market would broaden this year, but now I don't. The technicals are getting worse in banks, airlines, consumer discretionary, etc, the parts of the market you would equate with a soft-landing.







https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSo1...CNBCTelevision

The technicals in Japan are extraordinary. The Nikkei was up another 2.2 percent last night. Every chart in that index is bullish, beautiful, breaking out and reasonably valued. I've never seen anything like it.

Sure seems like a bit of an AI bubble. When everything is getting crushed and a small handfull of "AI" stocks are rocketing us to all time highs you start to wonder. Maybe all that speculation will be realize and AI will save the world, but seems questionable.

Market will keep rocketing while rubes like me think like that

The Lord MS Excel shall smite the non-believers!

As of yesterday. RSP (equal weight S&P 500) is up year-to-date and over the past month, 6 months and 1 year. Not exactly indicative of "everything getting crushed."

I've no opinion on AI-related stocks other than that momentum* is on their side. Might turn out to be like weed stocks or IOT or automobiles or airlines and be an actual thing, but not be a good investment theme over time.

Per my silly "what sectors are beating Treasury bills thingamajig," most sectors are doing fine. Using 12 month lookback energy and utilities have sucked worse than Treasury bills. Using 6 and/or 1 months, energy, utilities, consumer staples and basic materials have sucked worse than Treasury bills.

*There is reasonable evidence that "new momentum" is better than "stale momentum" although both do actually work ok historically. I am sure that there will be a new thing in the future and perhaps you won't miss out (assuming you want to do some trading on new and exciting things).

I went for a long walk and I thought about this today, after listening to a tech analyst called Gene Munster, who I really respect.

He talked about how electricity was a game changer level 100, the smartphone was a gamechanger level 30 and AI is going to be a game changer level 90, bigger than the internet.

Originally, I was skeptical, but now I do think this is an IPhone tada moment.

This isn't about interest rates anymore. It's about a technology that's going to completely change productivity and the way that we work 30 years from now.

We are at the very beginning of this AI story.

I think it's overhyped, calling what we have at this point AI is even a huge stretch.

What’s going on with palladium prices ?

If TPR management gets cold feet, could they not tank the deal by simply not complying with the FTC request for information? It seems like the CPRI bear case is something to the effect of, "Super-bad deal for TPR on fundamentals, which have only worsened since the transaction was announced, and the market hated it for TPR in the first place. Also regulators often do weird things and there's no check on that."

Thanks for sharing the idea btw, and hope you're well!

Pop after fairly long downtrend and then continued downtrend. Downtrend because demand from auto makers has declined as they've moved some production away from it (substituting platinum in catalytic converters).

Not sure why it popped up in price toward the end of last year. You can probably search for news on Google or something if you are interested.

Cold fusion is back!