As an update I'm now 100% in cash/tbills. It's something that I hate, because I do love the action.

If I find something that looks attractive, I'll post it.

Short the Market...

It went through my mind, but I always lose when I do it.

The rallies are always so powerful, it gives me a bit of a sick unpleasant feeling.

I kind of try to wait to buy the rips.

Short the market cost money
Tbills do not .

Yeah I wish you could get a risk free 5% on cash/short term t bills forever.

I think the most interesting move of the day was in oil. It fell 5% and is now trading at $70 a barrel. It's hard to know why that happened, but it could signal a weakening economy in the future.

In 2018 oil was $70 and interest rates were zero.

EXXONs revenue and net income in 2018 was 290 billion and 20 billion respectively. In 2022 it was 413 billion and 55 billion respectively following the big move up in energy prices.

JP Morgan's revenue and net income in 2018 was 129 billion and 30 billion respectively. In 2023 following interest rate hikes their revenue and net income were 239 billion and 47 billion respectively.

I don't know what is going to happen in the markets in the short or medium term, but if we go back to a world of $70 oil and zero percent interest rates these stocks are way way overvalued.

It sure would be great and help the U.S. society as a whole better then being at 0-1% .

Yes for sure.

When they bring down the interest rates, people start looking for yield and then they start buying stocks and houses and they push them up to crazy levels. It cause capital to be completely misallocated.

That's really what caused the financial crises.

They lowered rates after the dot com bubble, people started speculating on housing, then they raised rates and pricked that bubble.

Basically when left alone the market tries to flush all of the misallocated capital.

It tries to bring housing prices and stock prices down to realistic levels, where they should be, but the Fed doesn't want the temporary pain that that would cause in the economy, so they rush in with QE programs to reflate the bubbles.

I love this sept and hopefully oct volatility! Today sucked as I didn't get a trade signal but the rest of the week was awesome! Lots of great easily identifiable intra day swings with some legs. This is the best time of year to trade as it is typically the best volatility we see.

I think there may be one more flush before we rocket to new highs. Then again this market just seems to want to rally? The perma bears are sucking ****, I think they get one more shot at booking a profit before they get buried for good.

Buying October lows is always a good strategy. I am hoping we get them again.

All I know is that I’m not a trader but I bought a **** ton of puts today , good till January on many things I didn’t want to sell .
I won’t be sad in either case.

I am hedged for those afforementioned October lows. If we don't get them up never bothers me. But if those hedges kick in I roll them into longs. And yeah some more downside hedges but much less aggresively. Seasonality matters to me and October dips need to be bought.

China market hitting lows. Everyone else doin just fine. Did they get wrecked by companies leaving? They have thier own problems or should I care about the price of tea in China? I need more IQ points




What's with the rally in bonds, what is the deal with /cl

Seems like every post you make is trying to guess when the upward trend is going to stop. Why fight the trend?

Perma bears refuse to consider the fact that the market has gone up since its inception. If you bought just pre 87 crash, then added on at 1999 peak, loaded up some more just before the GFC in 2007, bought some more pre-pandemic and then added even more at the 2022 highs you have done exceptionally well only buying at relatively "bad" times. Imagine if you DCIed or could actually recognize dips?

The end is always near for these people. Wanna make money investing in the markets? DCI and set it and forget it and reap the rewards down the line. Trading is a different animal and a different game where you try to take advantage of all the swings instead of just the long term never ending trend. Betting on the end of the world has never worked out just yet.

Being contrarian is kinda fun, tbh.

Macroeconomic musings too. Prophets > Profits.

You are on the right track though. Following the trend until it has stopped being a trendis a fairly dependable strategy. Of course, no bragging rights since you are always late on your entries and exits, but the money is nice.

Read "Dual Momentum" by Antonacci for fun and profits.

Market in europhia, rates cuts yummy. Apple takes bath, iphone preorders not so good. Head on swivel in the friends. Earnings might be good in the fall or if we see cracks... air is thin up here.

Which is worse, Boeing or Intel. Not buyin the intel rally. A loser is a loser.

What's interesting about index investing is if you looked at the FTSE, the CAC, Stoxx 600, Nikkei, HSI, they all went parabolic from 1980 to 2000, but nobody has made any money in those indexes in 24 years.

It shows the horrors that can happen if you overpay.

I have no intention of overpaying for anything, so some old fart can reep the benefits, who bought 2 decades ago.

I think there is still some value in Berkshire Hathaway.

They will have 300 billion in cash at the end of the year, 300 billion in equities, and they will make another 40 billion in net income in 2025.

It's selling for 980 billion.

The same arguments you are making have been made for decades. And yeah non-US indicies kinda suck because US is still (for now anyway?) still based on capitalism. Growth and innovation is primarily a US thing that Europe doesn't/can't(?) embrace.

So I own FLIC. They've agreed to a merger being bought by a bank set to go through mid 2025. My understanding is the stock price is tethered to whatever the merger agreement set it at (I think it's $12.40)

It shot up 3% today I'm guessing on the rate cut news. Is that basically a free 3% if I sell? That price should come back down to 12.40 eventually, no?

There's cap gains to consider and I believe there are two or three more dividend payments left. Just looking for thoughts on this

Interesting tweet, and good point from the former head of PIMCO. If the economy is in such a good spot, why lower rates by 50bps???

Probably the fed realize they started to late , just try to recoup the lost time .

The debt keeps maturing and we can't afford to pay 5% on it all.

The US debt is 35 trillion and 4.9 trillion is collected in taxes.

If you were you were to pay 5% interest on the whole 35 trillion you would be paying 1.7 trillion in interest on bonds, without paying down the principle which would be 34% of total US tax revenue.

Of course the risk is cuts are a stimulus and they risk inflation re rearing it's ugly head.