Well, 2023 went really well with less than market risk so well done me.


First trade of 2024 is $CPRI which is being taken over by $TPR at $57 cash.
FTC is looking into the merger and has asked for a second review, but it's really hard to see them being made a bigger laughingstock over actually trying to block a midtier leather bag and expensive shoe merger than the giant laughingstock they were made over the ATVI deal.

Deal is supposed to close ~end of Q1 now since FTC asked for more info. 14% deal spread is a nice annualized rate. It's a $6bn deal so you can buy all you want.

Tapestry has already raised the required funds in the bond market. No chance they try to [or can] void the deal with a MAC clause in Delaware.

Obv risk is deal breaking, stock probably drops to $35ish. Market is too pessimistic on this deal which is the issue.

I actually owned shares in Capri last year. I talked about it in last years trading thread. It was way undervalued and then they got bought, by Tapestry. At first I was delighted, but then felt like Tapestry were buying it at a price that is still undervalued. At 57 a share the company is still only trading at 10 times earnings excluding 2023, which was a tough year for earnings, especially luxury fashion.

Personally, I hope the deal doesn't go through, just because I don't want Tapestry to have a massive monopoly on luxury fashion. But, I wish you the best of luck with the trade. When the news broke that they were being taken over I sold the shares last year. I wasn't bothered waiting to see if the deal gets closed, haha.

I don't see that much opportunity in the market right now.

I think short term treasury bills actually look attractive compared to stocks.

That's something I plan on saying maybe once every 5 years, so the market looks very expensive here.

I'm looking for a pullback to buy something if we get one.

Currently, the dollar and yields look like they are set for a bit of a bounce, which could pressure stocks.

Charts below, bear in mind they are a week old.

Thanks. Any potential issue with China approval?

Press reports have said the deal is expected to clear as a simplified case [Dealreporter]. There are obv no export/tech control restrictions on handbags. The SAMR's acceptance of a simple filing indicates that they have low market share in China [unsurprisingly].

There is also the possibility this clears prior to end of March but always good to be conservative on these timelines.

If you like CPRI, X is good for same reason. Japan Steel buying US Steel. There's a lot of competitors in the steel market and Japan would not be a national security concern. Over 10% spread for little reason imo. Of course politicians said what they always say about foreign buyouts.

Any insight on which Bitcoin etf may be the best? I guess time will tell and will watch volumes. This could open up a huge arbitrage opportunity although I am sure the black boxes will be all over it. Back in the day our firm would have been all over this looking for any arbitrage edges we could find.

I have and have had very small positions in Grayscale both for bitcoin and etherium for a while. That said I am not a believer. It's sort of my digital coin version of Pascal's wager I have tried to understand the value and don't see much and think there could be countless different technilogical advancements that could make this stuff worthless overnight. But I want a taste just in case.

If these things are optionable I think it could open up a pretty interesting arb and spec possibilities. I will be watching very closely for any opportunity that may arise in counter etf arb and in option pricing. If these things track well I think there may be some good option arbs and specs.

The value is the network effect of a nearly trillion dollar entity in the face of financial uncertainty. The tech is pretty **** tbh, but that doesn't even matter.

Thousands of more advanced chains have come and gone and thousands more will come and go

Looks like now is a really good time to buy back into staples like Hershey and General Mills (price movements are correlated). Check the monthly and both are finally done tanking since April of last year.

Going back to lab grown meats, it looks like MOO and FTAG are both pretty undervalued so I might buy some first thing friday.
Ai is coming back around the cycle; everything is low right now which seems like easy long term money.

As far as short term plays - Draftkings (DKNG) just exploded yesterday +7%, seems like a potential short opportunity over the next week.

Anyone dare to short DWAC?

Seems kinda crazy to bump this much given Trump was a lock to win the nom.

Yields could be done going up. If so, hopefully the broadening of the rally can resume, into banks, auto, retail, airlines, healthcare and biotech, which have been down the last month.

I'd like that to be the theme this year.

Really nice day for the Russell 2000 today. Hopefully, that continues.

One area of the market, which people are particularly bullish on this year is Biotech.

A lot of stocks which have gone on to do extremely well, retested their March 2020 lows. We can see that with Biotech.

It's hard too know which specific Biotech names to buy, but their is an ETF called XBI, which gives broad exposure to the space.

I have Stop Orders set to execute at 47.75.

I had no idea I'd make 130% in a week. I wish my principal would have been higher!

On second thought, putting in a sell order for $192.

MAGA 401KS inbound!

PFE and PGNY were two I was playing with last year, but I'm not super hot on biotech right now.

Universal studios, on the other hand...

Comcast owns Universal Studios right.

Pfizer was very bad last year. Investors must feel like people won't be getting Covid shots anymore.

Maybe it will have a good year this year though. It looks like a value stock at this point.

Comcast does own it but UVV is its own stock that is related directly to the theme parks and Epic Universe is slated to open 2025. They're already done with one of the sections (super nintendo world) and the project is rumored to be 3-4 billion. I'm certain over the coming year people will be sufficiently "Disney'ed" out and flock over - especially the kids, since Disney seems to be pandering more to their adult audience lately.

With PFE I do agree with you that it might be a good value stock, but looking at the charts it seems it will go down for another month or two before the other players pick up on it. However, they definitely aren't worthless - I remember seeing a ton of pfizer ads on TV, most for the jab but some for a new covid pill, paxlovid. Not sure how many people are prescribed it but if it ever becomes an OTC drug, pfizer will definitely jump in price.

I think the algos were just selling Pfizer down last year. Maybe Hedge Funds were going long tech and shorting healthcare. As you say Pfizer is still a very good business. I'd expect it's share price to recover at some point this year.

UVV is a really nice find. Great business at a very reasonable price.

Verizon, which I rec'd at the end of Oct in the prior thread is now up over 25% plus divy after today's EPS.

UVV is a tobacco stock.

Yeah that was a nice find. I did buy some.



Earnings were very good today. Hopefully the stock is heading back to it's previous high of 60 dollars.

We can hold onto it forever if we want and they have to pay us that dividend every year for infinity and the earnings will rise with inflation and as they become more efficient 💪.

Ah yeah that's right.

It's also called Universal. Easy mistake to make.

I'm actually embarrassed about this UVV - Universal Corp. is a different company; agriculture / tobacco sector, with a similar name and similar logo. CMCSA would be Comcast and its subsidiaries. Sorry for the wrong information, seems I can't go back and edit either.

What's up with CPRI?

It's drifting around same way ATVI did before grinding to it's buyout price. Of course nothing is for sure or there wouldn't be this huge arb spread. The cash arb game is not for the risk-averse.

Market could simply be afraid final approval drags on past Q1. Even if this takes 3 months to close that's an 85% IRR. Of course if it fails you could be looking at sub-$30.

Rationale hasn't changed. Market is simply too bearish on it. And, frankly, I think some of the HFs involved are lowering their exposure to chase Mag7 and similar names.