That isn't even remotely what I said.

Didn't bother to read the rest, as starting with such an incorrect premise makes it unlikely to be worthy of attention.

sounds good

It's always funny to me when someone gets embarrassed in an argument online and then pulls the "I didn't read the rest" line. Brian, we know you read it. You spend hours a day on this forum.

We have a whole thread on SVB, and you got embarrassed there also, strawmanning people's arguments when they exposed yours as poorly thought-out. I'm sure you'll say you stopped reading before getting to this point in my post, but I'll reiterate my and smartDFS's two key points: It is indeed a moral hazard if banks and depositors can enjoy inflated yields by not balancing risk, as that risk is borne by others. The others aren't necessarily taxpayers (yet), but are essentially all other people whom banks are going to pass their increased costs onto—including other depositors, businesses with loans from the bank, people who shop at those businesses, etc.

That's the last I'll say on it here because this is the trading thread and not the SVB thread.

I read that post.

Google which made 60 billion dollars in net profit last year and 76 billion the year before are cutting down on staplers and scotch tape and it's not even an April Fool's joke.

CFO Ruth Porat called the decision to lay off 6000 employees the hardest decision they have ever had to make as a company, since they can't afford to pay them anymore, I guess.

What do absolute earnings numbers like $76B and $60B have to do with cutting expenses and jobs to match declining profits? Should Google never fire anyone or cut expenses if they make more than $x billions in earnings?

Sounds like end of business cycle stuff if I ever heard any. All these cost cuts/layoffs and likely big earnings misses and lower guidance coming next.

I was looking at gold vs the Dow in the 1970s. It looks like gold outperformed 75' to 80'. Actually went higher as the market went lower. Obviously the inflation was the factor. I noticed gold was a flight to safety during the first days of this little bank panic. Gold is in recent history a risk on investment but I have a hunch during this stagflation that it is setting up similiarly to the 70s. Especially if the dollar gets weak.I'm long GDX calls and my fav miner is FNV atm

McDonald's (MCD) will temporarily close its U.S. corporate offices this week as it plans to lay off an undisclosed number of workers as part of a larger restructuring effort, per the Wall Street Journal.



This as well, but there have been a lot of signs over the last 13 years and the economy always keeps chugging along

My first investments were in gold and silver coins. Used money from my paper routes. This was in the early 1980s and I was a child at the time. It did not outperform and I regret that I didn't just buy candy and ice cream.

Mistakes were made and lessons were learned.

Immediate gratification is true bless!

anyone got a take on charles schwab? supposedly they had a ton of commercial paper and they've lost 40% of their value in like 6 weeks, someone must know something about all that for that type of move. Not exactly a regional or midsize. They got like 7T AUM. If the CRE paper goes bad, feels like they are bear/lehman

All I can add is the chart is an incredibly bearish triangle pennant. There are just so many short opportunities atm it's hard to pick the best ones. VLY has been a heavily shorted one too. A couple quants I follow are deep into shorting life insurance companies. LNG is one. Not exactly sure what the superior play is there but when i worked at Prudential Financial long time ago im pretty sure they did a lot of commercial.

I've been looking more at the zombies that IPO'd in 21 lately. Kerrisdale capital put out a report on ASTS the other day. It crashed and still is. now they did ticker AI and its crashing. Obviously they are shorting. Im following their twitter cuz i expect the next one they mention to do same. Cramer liked SOFI its down too. Inverse Cramer is a real thing if the volume is less than a mega-tech.

Its not just SCHW all these financials never got good bids after the panic. EWBC CATY PPBI and regionals especially. RWT etc. Etc. If these dont get some kind of real buying or squeeze in the next couple days theres gonna be a lot more downside. Been looking at airlines too. Especially the ones w worst balance sheets

Gold and silver were risk off trade today. I'm real bullish on gold, silver and miners. Oil strong today too.

Unusual whales tweeted that BABA's largest holder is going to sell their baba stake.
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/s...gn-DKGa-g&s=19

Some earnings and conference calls coming. PNC and JPM on Friday. Given that the recent downside was on a lot of news and not technicals, I would expect that how the numbers look will matter a bit and what they say on the calls will matter a lot.

I've no big insight into how the calls will go, but I expect a lot of it to be around how stable they are individually (and what they are doing to ensure their stability). And it will either be believable/convincing or it won't be.

There is also the matter of an expected recession in the second half of the year. Recessions don't generally help banks (ldo).

No specific ideas at all on the smaller regionals and community banks and no plans on trying to be a tourist in that part of trading. Obviously their reports and conference calls will matter a lot, but that doesn't really count as an idea.

Craziest thing I'm seeing is how First Republic has gone sideways for 3 weeks like a stock with a buyout. As far as I know there's no buyout? I assume they are all over the Feds discount window and it is stabalizing it. KRE is just as weak and hasnt recovered well the way its consolidating. Descending triangle. Could crash. My hunch is this liquidity injection option w the window is gonna prolong any meaningful credit contraction > recession. My theory is when economy starts slowing instead of lowering rates they will do more discnt window and even start massive QE . I assume the only reason every regional didnt get run on was the window. If anybody has an opinion on that it's kinda interesting to me. What do u think PocketZero?

I think FRC sentiment has moved from "will it survive" to "will it ever make money again if it does". The latter question will take much longer to answer.

Well. I was wrong about the numbers for PNC and JPM only mattering a bit.

Prolonged contraction is way better than abrupt contraction. And we need to have a credit contraction to fix the inflation thingamajig.

You should read up more on the discount window. It is essentially the same as you using a home equity loan to make it to your next paycheck; far better than going bankrupt, but not a permanent fix. It just buys the banks some time (for a cost), which is what they (presumably*) need.

There isn't any reason right now for even a little bit of QE. The economy still needs to cool off quite a bit and it (probably?) should run pretty cold for a while. Obviously that might change, but you don't hit the NOS switch or even the accelerator when your radiator cap pressure release valve is already blowing steam.

*Those that don't meet that presumption will die, but they will die quite a bit slower. That will give the kids time to say their goodbyes and it won't cause much disruption.

(Maximized metaphors in this post)

thanks on explaining some of that financial plumbing that goes on in the background at the fed for us who are in the back of the class

I still don't see any chat bots on Google. Bing search has GPT3 or 4 running perfectly as a chat bot with 3 different A.I. protocols, creative, balanced, precise. GOOGL looks like it is heading for serious trouble with loss of search to Bing if they don't get theirs out quickly. Samsung already talking about switching to Bing. I'm gonna start getting in GOOGL puts. they are already losing searches.

I'd agree with the puts on GOOGL, but https://optionstrat.com/flow/live reported 756 call options bought at 10am today, strike price of 105, exp April 28, and a price of $3.25 per option. Someone put down 246k that GOOGL stays green until at least the end of the month, so is now actually a good time to short?

Thing about option volume is you never know if the options are just a hedge on a bigger position. Maybe somebody is short over $1 million and just hedged. I think the market is in the dark on how big a revolution these A.I. bots are going to be. I've been listening to hours of Twitter Spaces conferences by leaders in the field. You can get a taste of just how powerful this is becoming by just using the https://www.bing.com chat for a few searches. It may take time for the market to realize how screwed Google is right now. Possibly even until the next quarter. I'm not going heavy right now.

I went there and found this:

"Getting started with the new Bing requires the use of Microsoft Edge and to log into a Microsoft account. When you access Microsoft Bing, you can choose whether to use the search or chat formats.
1) Open (or download) Edge and go to Bing:..."

Lick my ****ing balls. I'm not downloading some shitty new spy-browser and creating another account to use this thing. Why would you not get people hooked on it by offering it easily, and then once you've got the market share, you can force people to use your browser and create an account? This AI can't be that smart if it couldn't even figure this out. No position on GOOG or MSFT (other than what I own passively in an ETF), but everything I've seen about AI chatbots has been thoroughly unimpressive so far, at least in comparison to all the hype they get. Their ability to write basic code seems legitimately game-changing, but this role of being essentially a low-IQ assistant doing Google searches for you or giving politically correct answers to general questions doesn't seem like some groundbreaking paradigm shift. My speculation is that the hype in this area right now is going to very much mirror the hype in autonomous driving from like 2016.