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2022 Trading Thread 2022 Trading Thread

02-04-2022 , 03:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by donfairplay
If you can't figure out which day and time a company is reporting earnings, then you probably deserve to lose money.
I think the point Bakshi's making is that entities are actively disseminating disinformation to manipulate stocks. I haven't noticed this, but it certainly makes sense that people would do this, and it could be much more convincing than some easily dismissable claim about earnings. If you got several accounts together who claimed that Musk tweeted that he was postponing the Cybertruck indefinitely but that he then deleted the tweet, and all these accounts have fake screen shots of the tweet, that's likely going to move the stock. Or for some smaller stock, just someone who claims to be an analyst "leaking" info that he was told in a recent conversation with the CFO of XYZ corp. that they're not going to be renewing their contract with ABC corp., that certainly changes the calculus in handicapping ABC corp.'s stock. Most algos are scraping news feeds like Bloomberg and Reuters, but I'm sure there are people trying to get an edge by scraping less vetted sources like Twitter, and so it makes sense that people would be trying to exploit these algos by feeding them disinfo.
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02-04-2022 , 04:36 AM
Exactly, thank you Somigosaden.

Quote:
Originally Posted by donfairplay
If you can't figure out which day and time a company is reporting earnings, then you probably deserve to lose money.
I know I could just google earnings dates. I wasn't really tracking it and just happened to see that fake news and thought it was real.

But for news that is not company-specific it actually is hard to find a good calendar for it that is all in one place. Does anyone know a good website? The financial websites will often not put out headlines until the day before. I want to know far in advance. CNBC and Yahoo Finance have okay calendars but still not great. I want the economic calendar, the federal reserve calendar, the ECB calendar, etc., all combined with everything that might affect stocks. I know there's no way to predict analyst upgrades and downgrades but the other stuff I should probably be more prepared for.

I would also like to find a free website that lists all the greeks for options in a list because it's a hassle to look it up on my brokerage. I don't want to pay for IBKR either.

(This is all for my day trading serious gambling addiction problem account. My main account I know to just buy and hold index funds long term. )
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02-04-2022 , 10:07 AM
When can we confirm bear market?
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02-04-2022 , 11:06 AM
Looks just like the spec bubble popped, the strong fcf companies are posting good earnings so far. I think 2021 and 2022 active investors will finally show some alpha by avoiding the tickers that crashed. The graph circulating now is the arkk vs brk
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02-07-2022 , 04:43 PM
Do you guys think the major indices short-term rally and restest the highs or is this a bear flag and the strong selling starts any day now? Puru Saxena is seeing relative strength in growth down here and thinks we go up again before the real down move of 15%. I still have hedges on but based on the next few days I'm going to decide to take most off. IWM is still just a weak pennant here. Near lows
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02-09-2022 , 07:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
Still playing CVS earnings with 110 strike calls. Basiclally blown up my small fun options account if the CVS doesn't hit.
my breakeven is 111 and change. Strong still. CVS really coming through on earnings runup.
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02-09-2022 , 02:08 PM
idg earnings after hours i'm sweating like my tournament life is on the line with a pair of aces vs an open ended flush draw
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02-10-2022 , 02:21 AM
CPI out this morning before market open 8:30 am.

https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm

https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...se-2022-02-09/


Based off anecdotal things I'm seeing at my own company lately and my hunch it is lagging I expect it way over estimates. I am looking at USO calls again. It's a high flag again here very similar to last Sept. If you guys don't follow StockCats on Twitter he called a top tick at market high before this correction. He's consistently called most major market crashes/corrections the past 6 years roughly.
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02-10-2022 , 04:55 PM
This is a fed market

Fed and fed sentiment, front running, fear, predictions are going to be the dominant factor imo. Big picture is fed centric. There's other noise but IMO the rate hikes and speculation around them is going to create the rips and plunges

Enjoy the ride
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02-10-2022 , 07:00 PM
Looks like indigo (IDG.TO) is heading back into the black, should be easy sailing now to a profitable annual report

MC of 95M with 189.9M cash on hand, just posted a 52m ebitda quarter. Market better show some love tomorrow!! ytd editda is 47.7m through q3


Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $52.0 million compared to $37.8 million for the same period last year, an increase of $14.2 million. This improvement was driven by robust sales and merchandise margin performance. It is worth noting, that these results were achieved against significantly elevated freight and last-mile logistics costs associated with a challenged global supply chain, and against last year's meaningful COVID-19 labour support for home office and field leadership.

Indigo reported net earnings of $45.1 million ($1.62 net earnings per basic common share) compared to net earnings of $30.7 million ($1.11 net earnings per basic common share) last year, an improvement of $14.4 million or 46.9%, for the reasons discussed.

With no outstanding debt and a cash balance of $189.9 million, the Company continues to be well positioned to manage through any further uncertainty stemming from COVID-19.
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02-11-2022 , 11:09 AM
Nice hit there. Congrats
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02-11-2022 , 12:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bursito
Looks like indigo (IDG.TO) is heading back into the black, should be easy sailing now to a profitable annual report

MC of 95M with 189.9M cash on hand, just posted a 52m ebitda quarter. Market better show some love tomorrow!! ytd editda is 47.7m through q3


Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $52.0 million compared to $37.8 million for the same period last year, an increase of $14.2 million. This improvement was driven by robust sales and merchandise margin performance. It is worth noting, that these results were achieved against significantly elevated freight and last-mile logistics costs associated with a challenged global supply chain, and against last year's meaningful COVID-19 labour support for home office and field leadership.

Indigo reported net earnings of $45.1 million ($1.62 net earnings per basic common share) compared to net earnings of $30.7 million ($1.11 net earnings per basic common share) last year, an improvement of $14.4 million or 46.9%, for the reasons discussed.

With no outstanding debt and a cash balance of $189.9 million, the Company continues to be well positioned to manage through any further uncertainty stemming from COVID-19.

Do you have an exit price in mind? Seems like it should be valued in the $15+ range but its got that legacy retail stink on it that the market seems to hate.
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02-11-2022 , 12:27 PM
I sold 1/3 and my position is pretty sizeable so apologies for that resistance, need to keep a balanced portfolio... The rest I plan on holding until the annual report in June where I think it should be trading around 8$ by my estimates. When the market sees that it's profitable again there should be a big rerating. You can tell their business plan is on track by the print vs gen merch sales mix. First time ever gen merch is a bigger piece of the pie. That's where the inhouse brands are bringing in higher margin $.
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02-14-2022 , 01:57 AM
Noticed PBR broke out again and the dividend has increased significantly the last 3 quarters. They decreased debt and are pledging 60% of FCF dividend payments. Company says floor is $4 bil this year in dividend payout. Looks like a 14% div yield+ possibly this year with the stock at $14 a share. Just came off a long bull flag here. I'm gonna get some in my long-term. Oil, USO and a lot of these energies are still going strong.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/448...d-with-caution

https://seekingalpha.com/article/448...e-next-5-years
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02-15-2022 , 05:01 PM
watching this trend support test on oil. took off all short-term trades on oil yesterday and today. Bought more TBT. new low on TLT. in GSM calls i took from this morning took off the stock here before close.

I've been focusing on finding high dividend yield ETFs, stocks lately and might start a thread on them. There are a lot of varying strategy high dividend yield ETFs ETN's now and even low risk with high yield. There will be some good entry spots on a lot of these if equity markets keep falling. I'm finding stuff so good it almost seems to good to be true. Or I don't understand the nature of them. Like this HIghland asset high yield and non-correlated to stock market. It's been up all year but long company stock?? Couldn't find the top holdings publicly traded.

Last edited by Jupiter0; 02-15-2022 at 05:12 PM.
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02-17-2022 , 04:03 PM
all those gold stocks are finally doing their job and stepping in to stop my portfolio from dying
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02-17-2022 , 06:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bursito
all those gold stocks are finally doing their job and stepping in to stop my portfolio from dying
I wouldnt bank on gold as a reliable hedge. Or government bonds like TLT. 2008 was the last time bonds worked as a hedge. Gold over many decades has reduced volatilty but everything is more correlated now. I have just been pure hedging against what i have with inverse ETFs in my longterm. 10-20% roughly of my Roth portfolio in inverse etfs TZA and QID as i see fit trading in and out sometimes. Im perfectly flat this whole correction. I dont care about the decay bc i can allocate such a small amount and manage the risk.
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02-17-2022 , 06:57 PM
Gold didn’t participate in last years rally and one of this years only winners. I’d say it’s doing it’s job as a hedge.
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02-17-2022 , 07:51 PM
If ahnuld is still around, any thoughts on PRPL or PINS?
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02-17-2022 , 11:31 PM
There are no bids whatsoever for the stocks in these sectors. They have been tempting at 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% off. Wait for it to form a rounded bottom or to recapture the 200 dma, it's much safer allocations at these points. Pure knife catching for the last 9 months.
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02-18-2022 , 03:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalQuest
Gold didn’t participate in last years rally and one of this years only winners. I’d say it’s doing it’s job as a hedge.
I meant more along the lines of during major market sell-offs of 20-50%. Gold crapped the bed along with the indices in 2020 too. I've got DBC and a ton of oil exposure so I'm not down on commodities but don't expect it to hedge a true crash.
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02-18-2022 , 08:04 AM
I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from 2020's crash. US treasuries have always been a safe haven and couldn't find a bid during that time either until the fed stepped in. Gold has been largely decoupled from the indices since the pandemic and has acted as a hedge aside from those few weeks in March 2020.
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02-18-2022 , 11:57 AM
Noob warning..

Why can you buy indigo OTC under IDGBF? Is there an advantage to buying IDG.TO or going OTC? Can you sell IDGBF on the TSX or sell IDG.TO OTC? ? I feel dumb asking these questions.
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02-18-2022 , 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cantsitstillbr
Noob warning..

Why can you buy indigo OTC under IDGBF? Is there an advantage to buying IDG.TO or going OTC? Can you sell IDGBF on the TSX or sell IDG.TO OTC? ? I feel dumb asking these questions.
IDG is indigo stock on the canadian exchange (TSX) in CAD. IDGBF is the same exact shares but traded in USD OTC
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02-18-2022 , 12:50 PM
One is in Canadian $ and the other in USD - if you are trading in large amounts the currency conversion can be very expensive. I would imagine that IDGBF would have very low trading volume though.

GDL.TO and CTS.TO both had good earnings, now that's what you need to stay about even and avoid a 20% haircut
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