tech was super weak today. Another red day tomorrow I'd say we have confirmation. They trapped bears in afternoon today intraday so very possible we end up just range bound for days instead of all out crash. More likely just straight crash if VIX holds up I think though. I'm kinda figuring out whatever will cause max retail pain and traps is how they run the algos.

These 2%+ drops are indeed hard to catch intraday. Need to build position day prior and wait. Bear call spreads have worked well for that.

I traded UVXY calls the VIX ultra ETF today and it moves really smooth. OTM seem cheap. I don't know what the underlying price action was like but the calls pretty much just went straight up all day. VIX has a lot of upside. Sky's the limit lol

Small-cap market is wild. Look at COSM today 2,000% intraday liquid

Musk is hinting that he is stepping down as Twitter CEO.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097

If I were a big bank or hedge fund I would short all the unsustainable retail buying of TSLA. I read somewhere on Twitter Musk can't sell anymore TSLA shares until January? Can't confirm that but I'm sure he will take advantage of the likely retail buys too to offload. Who knows what will happen though and how long TSLA rallies if it even does. Sure is some drama on Twitter every week. What did he last? A month? It must be a shytshow and impossible to manage.

You are already at approximately 5x SPY moves (on average) in UVXY. No need to use options and pay spreads and decay

What do you think about the greeks on BITO puts Dec 23,30's? You have an opinion on BITO options? I've been trading them but and am in Dec 23 9.00 strike but there isn't much movement. I might be better off with COIN puts or just shorting MARA BITF ETHE.

The housing sector isn't matching reality to me right now. XHB has held up better than most sectors recently. I'm looking to short a homebuilder or maybe the ETF itself or NAIL short to capture the unwind. LEN has room to fall too. LEN is still above trend support from Oct which is crazy.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.co...9-14_50_28.png

I'm gonna play the next bounce with CGC calls 2.50 Dec 23. This unwind is getting a little out of hand like 10 days straight now and it's got support at 2.30 real strong. Not sure I know the whole story on CGC so not going big on this for sure.

XHB should be cracking 59.50 soon
https://blogger.googleusercontent.co...9-15_06_57.png

I've no ideas at all about BITO or any other crypto-related tickers, so no opinions on the options.

Oh, and one thing to consider is that there are lots of moving parts to housing stocks. We have the big obvious negatives of recession, higher mortgage rates, etc. But we also have positives with a long-term housing shortage, lower than normal corporate debt, relatively healthy household finances, pretty good valuations, and housing holding up historically well during inflationary environments.

The housing market will likely bottom around ~6 months before the last Fed hike as mortgage rates will be dropping [as it has] as that market is faster reacting than the Fed.

Assuming we don't get a big recession that is. Lumber prices way down, supply chain mostly fixed, and cheap valuations. Some of these HBs are already trading at 5x or less real EPS, none of the major ones have any debt maturity issues.

I think the recent move up in TOL, for instance, from 40 to 50 is meaningful. Trading ~book, if it gets back to 1.2x book that's 60 next year. LEN up 45% from the lows, that's not the price action you want to be shorting.

Any major recession then you likely want to be short, yep.

It certainly is for BREIT, that's precisely why they are doing it. And why they had those terms for their Quarterly gate.

It's not a solvency crunch, it's a liquidity crunch. BX had $2.7bn in cash and was getting $3bn in requests just for November. Even with $9bn in 'immediate liquidity,' they were probably going to burn that in December + Nov alone if they didn't gate.

They limited Dec requests to $200m.

BREIT had $69bn [nice] in assets, they can't allow withdrawals of say $9bn a quarter for obvious reasons.

There is a major difference between them limiting redemptions to exactly what they said they would years ago and a liquidity crunch. It is designed (correctly) as a semi-liquid non-traded product. The parenthetical correctly is because real estate isn't and never has been a highly liquid asset and allowing the more panicky investors to willy-nilly get out en masse at the expense of remaining investors is really dumb.

Obviously we agree that it isn't a solvency crunch.

I agree (in general) with your other post.

This company I've been following for years JVA Coffee Holding sells bulk coffee and would often find a floor for the stock at net tangible asset value give or take. It's gotten so cheap now from this bear market it's now at .60 of net current asset value. Pretty rare to have a NCAV that has a good history or sales and earnings. Some of these companies are just so beaten down now. EVGO grows sales over 100% a year and is EV charging stations. Stock is down so much. I took a starter in HOOD with a $8 call spread.

There is a lot of sporadic opportunity for merger arb out there. This ISO ticker a week ago had a buyout and it traded at about half the buyout price for an after hours session and some of premarket.

There is a merger going on with JVA I need to read more on. They are combining with another company. I can't find the ticker of this Delta company. Delta shareholders get 5.50 a share but the press releases are confusing. Now I see Delta is private so what is the 5.50? I will have to read the SEC filing.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/delta...124500468.html

This makes it seem like 5.50 is for JVA stock which is at $1.92 atm. Can anybody check up on this deal if you are interested in this?

It looks like JVA holders get a 1-1. One share of the new company for 1 share of JVA. I still am confused about all the details though.

JVA holders get a bit under 5% of the new company shares. Without further details about the current value of the currently non-traded company that will get 95% of the new company shares, it would be silly to dabble.