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2021 Trading Thread 2021 Trading Thread

12-08-2021 , 08:18 AM
Is this the bottom?

No idea but Nikola is still a 4.2 billion company
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12-08-2021 , 03:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by karamazonk
XBI seems to be at an attractive price. Thoughts?
short term try $LABU
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12-09-2021 , 05:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
GME is in its own league - store of value

Things are gonna be interesting when the $150 support breaks.
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12-11-2021 , 01:36 PM
Grabbed some JAN 28 PTON 40c on Friday. Dropping 16% in 2 days because a fictional character on Sex in the City died riding one is just a ludicrous reason for this kind of move.

That’s the last strike before earnings, looking to ride a bounce back up and hopefully some holiday boost in traffic. Stock was 46 on Wednesday before the episode came out.
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12-12-2021 , 04:06 AM
Is there a phenomenon of stocks selling off at the end of the year under predictable circumstances? Two reasons come to mind: 1) retailers and vested employees selling to cover the cost of Christmas expenses 2) tax-loss harvesting. For the second point, the theory would be that stocks that have been doing badly (and hence eligible for tax-loss harvesting) would sell off even more before the end of December. I'm debating buying a couple long-term holds, and I'm wondering if I would get a bit of extra EV by waiting a few weeks.
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12-13-2021 , 02:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by somigosaden
Is there a phenomenon of stocks selling off at the end of the year under predictable circumstances? Two reasons come to mind: 1) retailers and vested employees selling to cover the cost of Christmas expenses 2) tax-loss harvesting. For the second point, the theory would be that stocks that have been doing badly (and hence eligible for tax-loss harvesting) would sell off even more before the end of December. I'm debating buying a couple long-term holds, and I'm wondering if I would get a bit of extra EV by waiting a few weeks.
look at end of 2018 - correction turned around on 26/12
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12-15-2021 , 11:56 AM
Any thoughts on VIOT? Seems ridiculously cheap and trading at near book value. Are the regulatory concerns really that bad? The risk reward ratio with Chinese stocks appears more and more compelling to me.
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12-15-2021 , 03:33 PM
I lost a **** ton of money on $baba. A close relative of mine advised it was a good stock in the begin of 2021 when it was priced at $240 and I just threw some $200 on it without any looking into the company, just knew it was the biggest in China like Amazon. Wouldn't have ever bet myself on them knowing about the CCP that they suck af, but being a close relative who I regarded as highly intelligent, I threw it in withou thinking twice.

Long story short I've used Martin Gale strategy and by recently I had 35% of my networth invested in it and was suffering emotionally double or triple as financially. Finally I woke up and knew it could even be delisted or go to 0 no problem as chinese gov tackles on companies profits specially big ones and are just the shittiest gov on earth possible. Best case scenario it will go to $160 or smth but long term is a dead end. At an average of $120 I finally threw in the towel and completely abandoned this stock with high losses.

Lesson learned, never bet on ***** a company no matter how good it looks, if the country's gov is complete worse than **** itself. worse than poopies.

Worse than all above, I'm a poker pro and poker is literally on a die end, there's literally no money to be made higher than a minimum wage, unless you're a scammer advertising scam site PartyPoker on Youtube. (see why on https://protectonlinepokerplayers.com/)
And living on a **** socialist country myself people earn just enough to live by. I ****ed myself so much with that loss and have no way to recoup it ever.
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12-15-2021 , 03:36 PM
Shopify will go back to $2000 eventually. If there is a time to enter it is soon
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12-15-2021 , 07:54 PM
BABA is risky af but I'd be holding/buying it at 120 (and I have been), not selling, personally. The best case scenario is many multiples of 160 over the next few decades, not 160. If you'd rather just be done with it, that's understandable, and I'm sure there are plenty of better, safer opportunities out there. They have an Investors Day some time by the end of the week, curious to see what happens there. I'm down a lot on it too and feel your pain.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpursDynasty
Shopify will go back to $2000 eventually. If there is a time to enter it is soon
Maybe it will sniff around its ATH again, but I also feel like it will go back to $1000 eventually. No thanks.

Last edited by karamazonk; 12-15-2021 at 08:00 PM.
2021 Trading Thread Quote
12-15-2021 , 08:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by karamazonk
BABA is risky af but I'd be holding/buying it at 120 (and I have been), not selling, personally. The best case scenario is many multiples of 160 over the next few decades, not 160. If you'd rather just be done with it, that's understandable, and I'm sure there are plenty of better, safer opportunities out there. They have an Investors Day some time by the end of the week, curious to see what happens there. I'm down a lot on it too and feel your pain.
It's highly risky to be exposed to this stock I agree. I respectfully disagree in that I don't think BABA will surpass its ATH for the next 20 years, let alone be many multiples. Gl tho.
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12-15-2021 , 08:22 PM
long BABA
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12-16-2021 , 11:05 AM
ACN just keeps on runnin runnin runnin
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12-18-2021 , 10:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpoeo
I lost a **** ton of money on $baba. A close relative of mine advised it was a good stock in the begin of 2021 when it was priced at $240 and I just threw some $200 on it without any looking into the company, just knew it was the biggest in China like Amazon. Wouldn't have ever bet myself on them knowing about the CCP that they suck af, but being a close relative who I regarded as highly intelligent, I threw it in withou thinking twice.

Long story short I've used Martin Gale strategy and by recently I had 35% of my networth invested in it and was suffering emotionally double or triple as financially. Finally I woke up and knew it could even be delisted or go to 0 no problem as chinese gov tackles on companies profits specially big ones and are just the shittiest gov on earth possible. Best case scenario it will go to $160 or smth but long term is a dead end. At an average of $120 I finally threw in the towel and completely abandoned this stock with high losses.

Lesson learned, never bet on ***** a company no matter how good it looks, if the country's gov is complete worse than **** itself. worse than poopies.

Buy high, sell low...Never a strategy that works out well...Obvious time to buy big is now but most weak hands just sell out who don't know anything about the company. Not saying its a immediate come back or it wont get worse from here, but given they just did first of credit easing on Dec 15 in china I bet can expect many more in 2022 if they want to keep there growth targets at 5% and probably some other type of stimulus/infastructure spending/property easing/etc. Every 5 years is the national party congress which is next November, and its typically a good year for china stocks leading up to it. Seems smart by China to have deleveraged last year and not have to be stuck deleveraging in a big political year when the FED has too and can go the opposite direction with a lot of room to do so.

If you worried about delisting just transfer to the HK shares for a small fee.
They exchange easily 8 to 1. Even warren buffet owns $8 billion of BYD on the HK exchange.
2021 Trading Thread Quote
12-18-2021 , 08:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllinPoker
Buy high, sell low...Never a strategy that works out well...Obvious time to buy big is now but most weak hands just sell out who don't know anything about the company. Not saying its a immediate come back or it wont get worse from here, but given they just did first of credit easing on Dec 15 in china I bet can expect many more in 2022 if they want to keep there growth targets at 5% and probably some other type of stimulus/infastructure spending/property easing/etc. Every 5 years is the national party congress which is next November, and its typically a good year for china stocks leading up to it. Seems smart by China to have deleveraged last year and not have to be stuck deleveraging in a big political year when the FED has too and can go the opposite direction with a lot of room to do so.

If you worried about delisting just transfer to the HK shares for a small fee.
They exchange easily 8 to 1. Even warren buffet owns $8 billion of BYD on the HK exchange.
Stock dropped 65% from its ATH (almost double its previous historic biggest drop of 36%) so I wouldn't call people weak hands imo It's not crypto, and even then... I would understand to call weak hands to someone who sold after being down a couple %, but they would still be much better than me - mr. balls of steel - who got completely rekt holding a dirtbag to the ground for 8 months, 12 months straight from its ath down and down it came and will go. Buying baba is still huge risk for small reward potential imo. Much rather own bitcoin. My 2 cents
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12-18-2021 , 11:03 PM
and here you go rather own bitcoin thats run up 10x the past year or so...and dont want to own baba when it already dropped 65%...

it's like going into the department store and asking what do you have in stock for 10x the normal price compared to what high quality clothes you got 65% off?
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12-19-2021 , 03:54 PM
I don't think that's how investing works, and that's an analogy, not based on first principles. One thing up 10x is up that much for a reason(s) and can easily go up way beyond that, whilst something down 65% is down that much for a reason(s) and can easily go down way beyond that. just my 2 cents
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12-20-2021 , 04:33 PM
Serious question (i.e., I don't know the answer), can someone explain why EWZ, the Brazil index, is trading where it was in 2005, not accounting for dividends? I'm not too familiar with the country.
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12-20-2021 , 07:44 PM
PFE CVS. I have been looking at these pharmacy websites to book a covid booster appointment and a lot of them are all booked out a week. The pharmacist at Walgreens said a lot of people are getting it. My primary physicians office said they don't even offer the vaccine! It's one of the major providers too. So the only other place to get it is a pharmacy.

The relative strength today on Pfizer PFE is incredible. It's set up to run again tomorrow going high flag here. I'm up 50% on my core long-term holding put should have traded the options more. This covid revenue is significant and the market has only been way behind all year.

CVS doing some back of envelope. I got $7.73 trailing 12 month EPS but Nasdaq.com is saying $8.03 and other sites saying $8 too for full year. I see 2022 is $8.23 eps and price targets are avg at $110 a share for now and uppper is $120s. PE ratio is currently 12.5. Next years earnings growth is 3% then 8% next year off high estimates which I'm confident on bc they keep beating guidance. So we've got a PE of 12 with forward growth going to 8% in a stalwart. That low of a PE in the industry leader here can expand, especially with a 2% dividend yield. Walgreens stock isn't performing to boot and is a serious dog here. In this market a 12 PE with basically guaranteed earnings growth bc people getting the vaccine are buying products too. CVS relative strength is good too. I think it a no brainer on any pull-back. I'm gonna grab some calls or stock this week.

Last edited by Jupiter0; 12-20-2021 at 07:52 PM.
2021 Trading Thread Quote
12-20-2021 , 10:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by karamazonk
Serious question (i.e., I don't know the answer), can someone explain why EWZ, the Brazil index, is trading where it was in 2005, not accounting for dividends? I'm not too familiar with the country.
Ah, the BRIC investment theory. Traders do love their acronyms that "can't miss" and generally described as "the future", especially these country blocks which are a subsection of emerging markets.

They piled into ASEAN until it went bust. Japan (just Japan during the 80's). BRIC.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...ust-2015-09-04 - Marketwatch, which usually isn't a great source of investing information outside of late-breaking news, did a pretty decent write-up.

Flowing into specific emerging markets keeps happening until it goes bust. Emerging markets and frontier markets have problems that won't likely be fixed: corruption, favored status for megacaps, favored status for conglomerates (conglomerates almost never fly in America), dividend stagnation, dependence on commodities like oil or gas.
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12-21-2021 , 03:49 PM
Bought AVCT calls the other day. Its coming back here. PFE CVS were due a healthy pullback.
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12-21-2021 , 08:23 PM
EDIT News out
Quote:
The federal government will purchase 500 million rapid tests to be distributed to Americans via a website, beginning in January, The New York Times reported
I wonder if it is from one company or several? I see Abbott Labs ABT provides some tests. I'm digging into the plays off this. Roche RHHBY near highs still

Here it is boys. Yep Abbott is the player. Not sure still on the 500 million. damn that's a lot

Quote:
Walgreens said the “unprecedented increase in demand” for rapid at-home Covid tests started after Thanksgiving and has continued through the week of Christmas.

CVS said at-home Covid may be temporarily out of stock online.

Abbott Laboratories, maker of the popular at-home Covid test BinaxNOW, is shipping its test as quickly as the company can produce them, spokesperson John Koval told CNBC.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/21/walg...ron-fears.html
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12-22-2021 , 12:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by As1an1nvas1on
long BABA
long BABA is the new short TSLA
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12-22-2021 , 02:23 PM
i was just making a joke

but i do believe chinese policy is taking short term pain for long term gains

they want to be easing when usa is raising
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12-22-2021 , 04:35 PM
Bought CF calls this morning. The dynamic of low natty gas is supposed to help earnings next couple years. Earnings are DOUBLING next year over $9 eps from $4 and change and its a large-cap. PE is 50 so it has a lot of room to grow. Strong relative strength. Should have posted this earlier here, think i posted it on Twitter.
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