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Old 06-21-2021, 07:09 AM   #2326
somigosaden
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
Sunday night futures forecast for the week ahead: MORE PAIN
So you aren't making an actual prediction—just your usual vague impending doom noise. Just wanted to give you a chance to say something concrete. But maybe you've learned your lesson to remain as vague as possible after the 'millions of Americans dead this winter' letter.
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Old 06-21-2021, 08:56 AM   #2327
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by somigosaden View Post
So you aren't making an actual prediction—just your usual vague impending doom noise. Just wanted to give you a chance to say something concrete. But maybe you've learned your lesson to remain as vague as possible after the 'millions of Americans dead this winter' letter.
shuffle gonna shuffle
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Old 06-21-2021, 02:13 PM   #2328
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Anyone else like CLX here? It's now given up almost all of its pandemic boost and it's just above former resistance, which if the market doesn't collapse seem like it should be support. Seems like a pretty solid play to me and I started building a position today around 173.
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Old 06-21-2021, 03:01 PM   #2329
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Anyone here invested in or heard of Field Trip Health?

Thinking about opening a very small position in the company.

-Recently secured 95M in financing from Soleus Capital (PE firm that is well respected in healthcare/biotech space)

-Psychedelic medicine space has potential to surpass that of cannabis

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/11/kevi...potential.html
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Old 06-21-2021, 04:31 PM   #2330
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by PuckFokerGo View Post
Anyone here invested in or heard of Field Trip Health?

Thinking about opening a very small position in the company.

-Recently secured 95M in financing from Soleus Capital (PE firm that is well respected in healthcare/biotech space)

-Psychedelic medicine space has potential to surpass that of cannabis

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/11/kevi...potential.html
Maybe 100 years down the line
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Old 06-22-2021, 01:41 PM   #2331
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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Maybe 100 years down the line
way sooner. Have you done shrooms?
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Old 06-22-2021, 01:57 PM   #2332
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Another thing I find very interesting about Field Trip Health is they are in the process of developing a psilocybin derivative that only lasts 2-3 hours. This is patentable.
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Old 06-22-2021, 02:31 PM   #2333
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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way sooner. Have you done shrooms?
I'm not sure what my personal experience would have to do with overall social stigma and acceptance, but yes, I've done my share of dabbling.

People are way way way more polarized on hallucinogenics vs marijuana. That is a whole different wall to break down. And yes, I'm aware of the extremely positive research results around things like PTSD. Thats been going on for a good 20 years
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Old 06-22-2021, 03:17 PM   #2334
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Market is finally coming around to my SWBI. Seemed so obvious a year ago with record firearm sales. Everbody was to busy chasing 100 PE stocks.
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Old 06-22-2021, 07:17 PM   #2335
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
Sunday night futures forecast for the week ahead: MORE PAIN
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Old 06-22-2021, 09:43 PM   #2336
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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in fairness, anyone who's read more than 5 of shuffle's posts should know not to listen to his doomsayings by now

thoughts on NLS (Nautilus)? their subscriber model is supposed to have 250k members by the end of the year, 2m by 2026 -- so let's say they get 1m by 2024. $20/month, that's $240m in new revenue from SaaS, which has an absurd profit.

NLS total revenue, boosted by COVID obviously, in 2020 was 550m. This is a huge potential recurring revenue source, and the stock is still trading at a 6 P/E, 400m EV.

Seems like a decent bet, the obvious drawback is they fail to execute on their subscription platform, #s miss, and it either folds or grows more slowly than projected.
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Old 06-23-2021, 12:55 PM   #2337
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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APPS reports tonight.

The have been pretty much COVID-proof and recession proof but the rotation out of growth and general market conditions has pulled it down the past few months.

They are continuing to grow and churn out high % YoY. The selling is over done and I believe with another positive report people will jump back in for the next leg up.

Just my two cents as a non-expert fun trader. 2021 Trading Thread

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Got out of some calls at 70 on this today up about 50%. Thanks for putting it on my radar.
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Old 06-23-2021, 04:19 PM   #2338
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Are there any knowable potential catalysts for big moves prior to Jackson Hole and the next wave of ERs? Maybe the next CPI or something? Crypto collapse (seems pretty unlikely to happen any time soon now)? Feels like the probability of a huge sell-off has greatly diminished.
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Old 06-24-2021, 04:14 AM   #2339
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Put a stop order out on SYN a small cap pharma. A lot of these are in play here. Have traded it well in the past. IBIO is another good runner but quirky and better as a swing setup.
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Old 06-24-2021, 09:54 AM   #2340
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

jumped into ULTA as their first Target in-store shop will be opening soon, and hundreds more to follow. becky loves Target so I'm thinking this'll be huge for them.
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Old 06-24-2021, 03:09 PM   #2341
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Put on SYN and WISH at hods here. Overnighter. SYN not doing what i expected. Gonna hold one more day see if these pharmas are legit in play
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Old 06-24-2021, 03:14 PM   #2342
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

WISH really moving now
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Old 06-24-2021, 05:12 PM   #2343
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Anyone else notice options prices froze for awhile today? I was not sure what the real bid was supposed to be but decided .85 for some near the money spy calls was good enough. Here is screen shot
https://mobile.twitter.com/Snowie963...901122/photo/1
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Old 06-25-2021, 10:28 AM   #2344
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

had been occasionally selling a covered call against 200 baba shares and bought back yesterday for $50 loss. Premiums just not good enough right now for how much the stock moves.
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Old 06-28-2021, 03:41 PM   #2345
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Took a shot on EXEL and XPO calls on their dips. Bought both near term July calls and long term November calls.

XPO has bounced well off this range in the past.

EXEL might be a "falling knife" but the contracts were so cheap it was worth taking a flyer on it.

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Old 06-28-2021, 09:18 PM   #2346
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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had been occasionally selling a covered call against 200 baba shares and bought back yesterday for $50 loss. Premiums just not good enough right now for how much the stock moves.
What is the correct strategy when / if realized vol > implied vol? Feels like should be buying straddles or something but I'm not entirely sure.
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Old 06-28-2021, 11:29 PM   #2347
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Well it probably depends on risk tolerance so shouldn't be an exact strategy. I was trying to put orders through for BABA 210 Jan 21/22 calls when it was at 209 and $19.50 and those already went to $33.50 in the last week.

For myself I think since I am quite bullish on BABA that straddle doesn't seem the play for me. I should sell maybe 10% of my 213 shares and buy some 3-6 months calls if we get a couple down days.

The 12 month ATM calls are only 13% to breakeven and she moved nearly that just last week

I understand stocks like AAPL leaps where they are near all time highs and you see around 10% to breakeven on leaps. Baba is pretty beaten down so the options do seem like a fair deal right now.
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Old 06-29-2021, 03:36 PM   #2348
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Cut all my trading positions today. Not doing what tgey were supposed to do. Small caps are still not participating in this run-up. IWM red second day here. I had TZA a few days ago not sure how i shook out of that. But iwm def weak still. Not very bullish for rest of indices if small-caps cant participate
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Old 06-29-2021, 05:12 PM   #2349
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

LWLG has zero revenue and gone from 1 or $2 to $14. Its gonna be down 50% any week now if u can find shares to short. Wait for the first red day.
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Old 06-29-2021, 05:16 PM   #2350
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

MRIN watch too
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