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2021 Trading Thread 2021 Trading Thread

06-09-2021 , 06:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowie963
Why wasn’t wish on their list though? I made a couple grand but not great for how much capital I was risking
If you were making a list of stocks for people to buy what might determine which stocks go on that list?
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06-09-2021 , 10:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheJacob
If you were making a list of stocks for people to buy what might determine which stocks go on that list?
I don't care anything about market caps or whether these companies are about to be bankrupt, wish was probably the most mentioned ticker yesterday and it wasn't on the list. Though CLNE got added to it but I didn't see a huge amount of talk. I flipped all of those stocks at one point, lost 5% off CLNE and made 15% off wish intraday, made 5% off clover.
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06-09-2021 , 11:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowie963
I don't care anything about market caps or whether these companies are about to be bankrupt, wish was probably the most mentioned ticker yesterday and it wasn't on the list. Though CLNE got added to it but I didn't see a huge amount of talk. I flipped all of those stocks at one point, lost 5% off CLNE and made 15% off wish intraday, made 5% off clover.
You made 5% on clover, a stock that was up like 135% that day?
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06-10-2021 , 12:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by donfairplay
You made 5% on clover, a stock that was up like 135% that day?
no, I made 135% because it was up 135%. I had them all for a small time over the last week.

Last edited by snowie963; 06-10-2021 at 12:48 AM.
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06-10-2021 , 08:56 AM
I'm in MT (ArcelorMittal).
Good for increased inflation, the high steel prices are also a cause of inflation and MT is a company profiting of that.

This steel index (similar to almost all other steel indices I've seen) came down from a recent high of 6000 stabilizing at a "low" that is higher than the highest level of Q1 2021
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel

MT's Q1 is reported as their best quarter in a decade.

WSB discovered steel yesterday in the form of CLF which already shot up yesterday.

Last edited by OldBonesMcGee; 06-10-2021 at 09:01 AM.
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06-10-2021 , 08:59 AM
Also MT is vertically integrated meaning they mine a large part of their own ore, so increased ore prices aren't cutting much into their ability to profit of overall rising steel prices.
(MT up 3% premarket today)
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06-10-2021 , 04:54 PM
You'd be wise to model some capex for plasma torches, all the iron ore pelletization will have to make the switch sooner than later from fossil fuel burners.

I've been riding the CIA.TO wave for the last year it's turned into a huge cash cow and they'll be expanding the mine shortly.

Super bullish on iron ore, steel and of course PYR plasma torches. The run prolly ends when the infrastructure bill is signed.
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06-10-2021 , 10:52 PM
To the people that actually trade here, how big of a deal is RSI? I've looked at it a lot lately when considering when to sell stocks, etc and it seems like its a great tool to use to sell when a stock is overbought etc. I know looking back on history doesn't = same thing will always happen but its when a stock hits an rsi of say 70-80, its almost always a top and then you can rebuy later cheaper when people profit take.

Just wondering if anyone has advice on how to use RSI etc? I mainly invest in stocks long term and currently have a position where i didn't sell at a high rsi even though doing so would have turned into a great opportunity to sell and rebuy back later much cheaper. I only invest in companies I think have solid long term prospects but just wondering if its smart to sell at high rsis and take a gain and rebuy back later or just dumb thinking etc.

I have a pretty damn high % of my net worth in one company right now that went up 5x after the March covid crash. It went up 5x and then was slashed in half valuewise. Don't want to go into specific company but I had to sell some stock at a discount from this high to acquire some cash for personal use. Just wondering if I should stick onto my shares or sell some if we ever get high RSIs again (like 80-90) and just try to rebuy later or do i just hold longterm. I'm getting close to a year hold time to not get hit with short term gains.
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06-11-2021 , 12:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jkpoker10
To the people that actually trade here, how big of a deal is RSI?
I like looking at the upper bollinger band on just a 20,2 BollingerB for profit taking signals. When they get too high over the upper bollie that is a decent profit taking spot if it has already had a long runup. On a daily chart a red or black candle is the kiss of death if it prints above upper bollinger band. See AHT or AMC's recent charts as an example. It's not fail proof of course but can be a signal. I prefer RSI for scanning for stocks worth entering vs. an exiting tool. RSI over 60 in that scan but I don't always use RSI to screen.
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06-11-2021 , 03:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jkpoker10
To the people that actually trade here, how big of a deal is RSI?
FWIW in my currency pair backtests it's producing a lot better signals when it is returning from overbought/oversold territories. For stocks it works until it doesn't, some big news and you'll see it in over 90 or sub 10 - it might diverge later. Would'nt rely on it long term it's rather useful when there is a lot of noise without fundamental changes (or for scanning as said above)
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06-11-2021 , 12:20 PM
Anyone in here familiar with ABCL? This is some kind of biotech stock that went the way of most high flying recent tech IPOS, crazy debut followed by gigantic slide. Peter Thiel has a 5% stake and the Bill and Melina Gates Foundation is also among major holders. Lockup expired earlier this week, so that as a catalyst for downside/uncertainty is now passed. Looks to me like a very good r/r around this $25-27 level with a tight stop around the all-time low (23.20).
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06-11-2021 , 02:37 PM
Longed FRO today 8.90. Bullish pennant breaking here. It hasnt had the huge runup yet as others in industry.
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06-13-2021 , 10:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bursito
You'd be wise to model some capex for plasma torches, all the iron ore pelletization will have to make the switch sooner than later from fossil fuel burners.

I've been riding the CIA.TO wave for the last year it's turned into a huge cash cow and they'll be expanding the mine shortly.

Super bullish on iron ore, steel and of course PYR plasma torches. The run prolly ends when the infrastructure bill is signed.
Thanks for the hint!
Though PYR's own estimation of 10B here would have me not very worried about that:
"The total world pellet production of 400 million metric tonnes of pellets represents a potential market for torch sales in excess of $10B worldwide."
source:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-r...a-Torches.html

Since companies if anything tend to overstate not understate their addressable world market.
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06-13-2021 , 10:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bursito
The run prolly ends when the infrastructure bill is signed.
Possible I do think a supercycle is also actually possible.

"Two of the nation’s largest steelmakers are keeping older mills closed, passing up a chance to sell more metal at record prices, because of the high cost of restarting and the threats to their survival from rivals’ new plants.
The closures have exacerbated a shortage of steel..."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/steelma...es-11623322802

This isn't temporary btw, the following is from CLF

"That capacity is not coming back, and people need to stop talking about that capacity"

It seems steelmakers have learned from earlier cycles in this point.
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06-14-2021 , 09:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by karamazonk
I've been loading up significantly on CRSR any time it's $32.50 or lower as a play on continued growth in gaming and streaming and it's my largest non-index individual holding now. Seems like it's actually very reasonably priced (it's priced like gaming has already peaked) and it's been a reddit and youtube darling before, so some chance it has a decent hype wave again at some point (see the parabolic move after the IPO). It dropped 6% today apparently solely on news the CFO sold 7500 shares at 31.5 (half his position), but from what I understand this is rarely anything to worry about? It's already 35-40% below its ATH, the ER was stellar and they upped their guidance, I think gaming and streaming will continue to grow significantly, etc., am I missing something with where this is priced?

I suspect worst case scenario with this is it hits the mid 20s upon a big market pullback but seems like a near-lock to be 40+ within a year or two. Feels about as safe as a growth stock could feel like.

Anyone have thoughts on this one?
This just aged nicely.
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06-14-2021 , 10:11 AM
You did sell some though right?
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06-14-2021 , 11:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowie963
You did sell some though right?
Nah. I was buying mostly because I love this company for the longterm, not because I expected a WSB pump (but I did think it had a shot of one). I have some 25c for Jan 2023 I wish I had sold at the open, but it's fine. I bought them for ~11.5 last week or the week before, seemed dirt cheap to me. I had a GTC limit order for 21.2 on one of them that might have filled at open (I saw one went for 20.5) but got greedy when I saw the premarket and adjusted all limit orders higher.
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06-15-2021 , 11:23 AM
Bought 100 draft kings at $47 and just sold a July 30 52.50 call for $2.82
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06-15-2021 , 03:00 PM
still sitting on my XOM trade, haven't sold any, not planning to start exiting until august or XOM = 70
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06-15-2021 , 05:12 PM
Next few days should be interesting between FOMC tomorrow and quad witching on Friday. I feel like there could potentially be a big sell-off given all of the following: inflation headlines everywhere, low volume in market for a long stretch now suggesting a big move is coming one way or the other, valuations continue to be stretched, lots of big names at key resistance, lack of positive catalysts / feels like reopening quite priced in now, retail frenzy and speculative froth still out there, put/call ratio lopsided towards calls, mid to late June historically bearish and/or choppy, etc..

All of that being said, given I don't have a very good track record of anticipating big drops, take this with a grain of salt. Could go the other way and stonks keep stonking hard..or things go sideways. I'm slanted for downside now but will adjust my bearish stance by end of the week if market doesn't look like it wants to sell off.
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06-15-2021 , 08:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BilldaCat
still sitting on my XOM trade, haven't sold any, not planning to start exiting until august or XOM = 70
You're not a believer in the sell-side research price targets of 90? Some of them are a bit rosy, I think at that price it would be a half trillion dollar market cap again.

I'm waiting for 80 - 85 now. Diamond hands, diamond f'ing hands.
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06-15-2021 , 09:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
Get out
Is this you calling a market crash? We haven't even begun seeing the mass die-offs from the vaccines yet.
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06-15-2021 , 10:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by donfairplay
You're not a believer in the sell-side research price targets of 90? Some of them are a bit rosy, I think at that price it would be a half trillion dollar market cap again.

I'm waiting for 80 - 85 now. Diamond hands, diamond f'ing hands.
No, I think those targets are a bit crazy. I'm going to start scaling out around 70-72 depending on how the momentum/oil prices are going. If we get to that level I want to start taking some of this $ off the table.
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06-16-2021 , 05:24 PM
FRO holding up well today. still in calls. Only other trade I have on is TZA.
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06-16-2021 , 05:43 PM
looking at shippers again. SBLK broke out today.SBLK along with GOGL had fundamentals I liked. SBLK earnings guidance keeps getting bumped up. GRIN management has been buying back stock. I'd like a pullback on GRIN. SHIP is interesting here too. I am prob gonna buy SBLK on any break over 24.55 area
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