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Originally Posted by Wittgenheiny
Q1: Assuming current levels of vaccination stay the same (1M/day), what makes you think 3 months is enough to change anything? That would represent 25% of the population being vaccinated by the end of March.
It's worse than that. Because of 2-3 week lag to 50% and second booster for 94% (in total a month+ lag time needed for 94%), by the end of March only about 16% of the population will have protection via the vaccine. The burn through will take it to 25% to 30% though, which is still far short of having this thing controlled. That's less than the effect of distancing.
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Q2: Why isn't most of the recovery/stimulus/vax already baked in?
It's kind of hard to bake in the decisions and money flows of tens of millions of chimpanzees suddenly with free money. Unless big funds are planning to sell into them, no reason that it's all baked in.