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2021 Trading Thread 2021 Trading Thread

05-13-2021 , 06:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
Real talk though- need a good 10% correction under 4k then long the market. Can't hold cash vs. double digit inflation prints that are coming. Market doesnt sell off because of inflation, it sells off because it fears the Fed will tighten to fight inflation.

But the Fed has made abundantly clear they aren't tightening. Inflation or no inflation, they are going to print more money.

Yield curve control before rate hikes imo
If jobs data does not improve how will Powell rationalize not tightening going forward? At least if the UE rate keeps going down he can point to that as a trade off for inflation. Same goes for ridiculously loose fiscal policy.

And then there are tax hikes incoming. That is how inflation is controlled in MMT.
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05-13-2021 , 08:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by karamazonk
Same. What names do you like?
Couple of the beat up hydrogen plays come to mind, but honestly I'm just starting to look at this.

Hey do we talk crypto miner symbols in here or another thread? MARA, RIOT, etc.

That's another sector I'm bottom fishing soon.
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05-13-2021 , 11:59 AM
best way to invest into copper, nickel, palladium, lithium, cobalt and such?
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05-13-2021 , 12:22 PM
Depends on your risk tolerance, the Jr explorers will have the highest exposures but you're a bit late on that trend tbh

Getting flow through shares that explore in your area can give great tax benefits. Until you have to sell that is, capital gains are pretty massive when your cost basis is reduced to 0.

It's extremely risky and that's why the gov wants to incentivize investments in the space.

A mine that's already in production is safer but won't shoot up like 700% the way the Jrs do as commodity prices increase and projects become economical.

Look up Lassonde curve so you have an idea of where the play is in the life cycle.
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05-13-2021 , 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
best way to invest into copper, nickel, palladium, lithium, cobalt and such?
On the equity side, I’ve been in COPX since last summer, much to my delight. Can pair that with something like BATT perhaps.
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05-13-2021 , 02:07 PM
For Copper I've been waiting for FCX to dip a bit more.
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05-13-2021 , 02:17 PM
Barrick Gold is essentially Gold/Copper play that many only know as a Gold Play. Stock probably would be higher if it was named Barrick Copper today.
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05-13-2021 , 03:00 PM
GME, confirmed safe haven.
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05-13-2021 , 03:08 PM
Had 20 blink weekly puts from two days ago at close for $27.50 at $.50 that finally went in the money. I do plan to hold overnight here.
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05-13-2021 , 03:35 PM
I don't know too much about the company but this WISH sell-off seems overblown. Long WISH via shares at spot 8.13 and some December calls (10c for 1.4).
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05-13-2021 , 08:42 PM
No luck on my blink earnings play, so I guess it did dump over 8% today so I will be happy with that, if we can drop a few percent tomorrow I’ll take that too. Might have to settle for 1 bagger for getting greedy.
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05-14-2021 , 02:28 PM
In case anyone followed that WISH, fyi I went ahead and took 30% profits on the calls already. Will probably set a breakeven stop on the shares and let it ride with target price of 11-12.
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05-15-2021 , 12:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by karamazonk
In case anyone followed that WISH, fyi I went ahead and took 30% profits on the calls already. Will probably set a breakeven stop on the shares and let it ride with target price of 11-12.
you still playing baba? I am in 100 shares are 209 now, will hold long time.
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05-15-2021 , 12:59 AM
i got heavy into baba/baidu/viacom after their tumble, showed a big profit for a while but now all even lower than when i bought
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05-15-2021 , 02:46 AM
I don't know, baba seems to have a lot of value at the current price, mohnish pabrai took a decent sized position in it, I am a little unclear on all of the potential risks of these Chinese companies but have been researching a lot. i see enough potential upside over the next few years that it outweighs the risk.

Also Cathie Wood selling BABA is a good sign.

Last edited by snowie963; 05-15-2021 at 02:52 AM.
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05-15-2021 , 09:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowie963
I am a little unclear on all of the potential risks of these Chinese companies.

https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/c..._shareholders/

from the above reddit Post:
Reminder: BABA stock does NOT entitle shareholders to equity in Alibaba

Chinese law forbids foreigners from owning strategic assets in the country, ... Basically, the Alibaba stock will buy you a stake in a Cayman Islands-registered entity that is under contract to receive the profit from Alibaba's Chinese assets but will not actually own them. This structure is called a VIE.

Is this VIE structure even legal in China? Beijing has never acknowledged the legality. According to Harris Bricken, an international law firm:

" VIEs are illegal. We disagree with those who are saying that what is proposed is a two tier, foreign/Chinese system. "

We don't know the true answers to the above questions. BABA could easily be worth 0$ if investors one day decide that the "contract" to receive profits from Alibaba is basically BS.

Alibaba and Chinese executives come out a winner either way. Alibaba was able to raise billions from foreign investors without giving up a single bit of ownership.

... all Chinese listed companies on US exchanges are listed as Cayman shell companies, this isn't specific to Alibaba. Baidu and JD are set up the same way
.
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05-15-2021 , 10:07 AM
Yeah, it's pure scam, and if things escalate/delist when China attack Taiwan for example, you're left holding nothing.
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05-15-2021 , 11:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Yeah, it's pure scam, and if things escalate/delist when China attack Taiwan for example, you're left holding nothing.
Isn't that just part of the risk and why it is trading cheaper relative to similar listed American companies? There is a lot of talk about this online, reddit mostly, and you still have these supposedly smart people buying it. I realize it's a small percentage of these portfolios but still it seems to be a known risk and seems there is still upside that outweighs that risk for investors.
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05-15-2021 , 11:13 AM
Are they really that much cheaper? They're trading a 24 P/E (compared most cash cow US tech companies at about 30-35). That's nowhere a sufficient discount for the risks in China + the risks of not actually having a legal claim/legal ownership in the company. Not when China is gearing up to take Taiwan while Biden is in office and it can get away with it.

If you don't mind risk or want to buy discounted risk, why not buy US covid stocks instead? Plenty are still way down.
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05-15-2021 , 11:50 AM
I wonder how that works for companies headquartered in Canada, listed on the Canadian exchange but all operations/subsidiaries are in China (I've been long PKK.CN for a couple of years now)

WISH just gives me flashbacks to lightinthebox LITB which is a dumpster fire. Isn't everything on WISH counterfeit?
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05-15-2021 , 12:09 PM
yeah all chinese stocks are listed that way
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05-15-2021 , 02:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowie963
you still playing baba? I am in 100 shares are 209 now, will hold long time.
Yep, after being out for a long time I got back in this week, cost basis around 208, but I haven't bought too much yet. BABA is the #1 or #2 biggest losing ticker for me due to calls that got rekt but the current price was just too bargain basement-y to pass up. The reaction to the ER seemed silly given this quarter was the one that took the hit from the $2B fine from the Chinese government or whatever the fine was; maybe I'm too optimistic, but I think the fallout from the Jack Ma stuff has to be over or almost done.

I've been buying JD on the dip too but the risk reward isn't as favorable as BABA's and it could easily drop more.

Re: concerns related to Chinese stocks, I too think that all of that is currently priced in. Charlie Munger, one of the most conservative investors out there, was comfortable enough with all of these risks to buy BABA the dip above our own cost bases, and last I checked Dalio owns a large chunk of Chinese stocks as well via VWO, where BABA is typically a top 3 holding.

Kind of funny that I had the same thought as you, snowie, re: ARK selling. I took it as a buy signal lol. ARK=fish that was on a heater; I thought it months ago and now it's been confirmed imo.
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05-15-2021 , 02:06 PM
Well if tooth has any better stocks to buy let us know and I will consider those too.
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05-15-2021 , 02:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bursito
I wonder how that works for companies headquartered in Canada, listed on the Canadian exchange but all operations/subsidiaries are in China (I've been long PKK.CN for a couple of years now)

WISH just gives me flashbacks to lightinthebox LITB which is a dumpster fire. Isn't everything on WISH counterfeit?
Just to reiterate, I dunno much of anything about WISH other than it's a bargain-oriented e-commerce site and their market cap was down to $5B as of the time I bought. I went to their web site and it required a login to do literally anything (like, you can't even browse the site and its products), which seemed like a horrible business decision to me. It's purely a rebound play for me that's already paid off nicely and is a freeroll now. I don't know if it's worth getting in now after its stock price went up 21% day the day after my post.
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05-15-2021 , 02:36 PM
I don't know when a good entry will be, but I think RBLX is still ripe to have a big sell-off. I'm not too knowledgeable about fundamentals and valuation yet, but a $40B market cap still seems crazy elevated to me after all of these other IPO growth stocks have sold off hugely. I already own some puts for a few months out and may buy more. Anyone else looking into this ticker?
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