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Old 05-03-2021, 03:47 PM   #2126
BilldaCat
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

mrspytastic's TAP play still ripping

up 100% but planning to hold until 60 or so. spytastic, what's your exit point?
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Old 05-04-2021, 01:34 AM   #2127
snowie963
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by somigosaden View Post
Based snowie, stickin' it to the man. You're not related to Joseph Stack, are you?

what's based?

Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry View Post
25k in taxes and you somehow think your are this poor prosecuted man?
lol
I said persecuted, not prosecuted. Don't tell me you like the tax agencies?

I'm perfectly happy to pay taxes, but they don't give the interest they are supposed to for over payments, make mistakes and charge penalties that you can't get rid of, then if you ever get ahold of them the employees aren't able to help you because they don't know anything. Meanwhile handing out billions of dollars to capable people who don't want to work (not the tax agencies but same thing)

But I'll end the derail here, sorry, it was the weekend and nothing going on at the time.
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Old 05-04-2021, 12:21 PM   #2128
dmatz327
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Can confirm Snowie's experience with the CRA, they've been an absolute nightmare to deal with in a professional capacity from the US. Going on year 7 of a very straightforward Audit lol
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Old 05-04-2021, 10:36 PM   #2129
Jupiter0
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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Still in DBC calls
in the money now up 76% on DBC. gonna hold. I think its off to the races for awhile. luv SUN. looks like steel stocks are starting to go now. TMST
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Old 05-05-2021, 11:33 AM   #2130
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Put options on playboy? Good or bad idea?
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:34 PM   #2131
Jupiter0
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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in the money now up 76% on DBC. gonna hold.
out of the DBC calls 100%
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Old 05-05-2021, 03:37 PM   #2132
karamazonk
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Anyone else looking at the XRT ETF (basically a retail sector ETF) for shorting? Zooming out to look at its chart the last 5 years, it's bloated af right now and looks ripe to dump hard when the next sell-off hits.
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Old 05-05-2021, 03:50 PM   #2133
ToothSayer
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Why would you short retail into an opening up/recovery/soaring revenue/record personal savings and pent-up demand about to be unleashed?
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Old 05-05-2021, 04:03 PM   #2134
karamazonk
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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Why would you short retail into an opening up/recovery/soaring revenue/record personal savings and pent-up demand about to be unleashed?
Sell da news. Seems like that's all already well priced in, but I could be wrong.
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Old 05-05-2021, 04:55 PM   #2135
ToothSayer
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Buy the anticipation, sell the news/event/actuality, sure. Aren't we still in the anticipation phase?

As long as the future is better than the present, and there's nothing to induce fear, markets tend to buy.
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Old 05-06-2021, 03:09 AM   #2136
Malachii
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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Just thought I'd check in and report that I'm up 40k on those Wells Fargo calls I bought back in December and still have another 9 months to go. TGT has been kicking ass too, wish I had a larger position on that one but I'm still making good money, many thanks to twelve yr old for posting about that one, it was already on my radar but that post really helped reinforce my conviction.

I'm also long a boatload of CVS calls and have a giant bet on STNG (10k shares of the underlying and 150 calls with expirations on 1/22 and 1/23 at strike prices of 15, 17, and 18.) Basically a bet on oil demand and economic growth both coming roaring back once we have a widely vaccinated population, and IMO STNG seems to be the best way to play it in terms of bang for your buck. But I've gotten burned on STNG hard before, so YMMV, and this is a medium to longish term play.

Also, I realize this probably isn't the thread for this, but if you don't own Bitcoin, you should seriously consider buying some. Everybody should have at least some exposure to it.
In case anyone cares, I cashed in my WFC calls for like 65k in profit a while back. Should have held onto them. If anyone followed me on that trade, you made a mint.

Sold 50 of my SNTG calls but still holding 100 calls and 10k shares, although I'm souring a little bit on that one. I still believe it'll be higher but it might take longer than I originally hoped, Covid is well under control in the US but everyone else is f*cking it up.

Overall though I would say that I'm generally bullish on casinos and energy but overall I think most of the easy money has been made in this market and there's crazy amounts of speculative froth, which historically has ended poorly since people tend to be stupid.

It's also a little disheartening to see how much the dollar was devalued with all these Paycheck Protection Loans, I don't think your average man in the street realizes how many people that own businesses just got away with straight murder on that program (hence part of the reason why I'm bullish on casinos). But overall I don't really have any great ideas at the moment, I think a lot of the easy money has been made.

Good luck to everyone, hope trading has been going well and people are making money.
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Old 05-06-2021, 04:56 AM   #2137
chytry
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Cyclicals close to 52wk highs, growth mostly in a dumpster fire

will the trend continue?
reversal coming?
correction across the board?
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Old 05-06-2021, 05:10 AM   #2138
Oscera
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

i hope so that
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Old 05-06-2021, 11:51 AM   #2139
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

I bought some 2023 200 calls on etsy this dump seems like an over reaction. I got luck and sold my shares at the top... just to get killed on KNR lol

FYI our company (major wholesaler) had it's best month EVER and we're in a very hard hit industry so I'd be really careful shorting those retail reopening stocks... seems obvious now that the move was to short the high flying lockdown stocks and long the reopening... oops there goes half my profits for 2021

How do we play the massive increase in residential pools? In my neighborhood there is 18 pools under construction - normally there's 2-3 a year

As for the estate tax I can only point you in the right direction, I'm not an accountant but the gist of it is that if you have a net worth over 11M (globally) any US holdings you own will get taxed upon your death if you are holding it under your personal name.
I'm nowhere near that TODAY but in 50 years time it's not that big of a stretch to get there.

I've been accumulating jr explorers for gold over the last couple of weeks - ROS RDS NFG CAPT (on the tsxv)
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Old 05-06-2021, 01:14 PM   #2140
BilldaCat
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by bursito View Post
I bought some 2023 200 calls on etsy this dump seems like an over reaction. I got luck and sold my shares at the top... just to get killed on KNR lol

FYI our company (major wholesaler) had it's best month EVER and we're in a very hard hit industry so I'd be really careful shorting those retail reopening stocks... seems obvious now that the move was to short the high flying lockdown stocks and long the reopening... oops there goes half my profits for 2021

How do we play the massive increase in residential pools? In my neighborhood there is 18 pools under construction - normally there's 2-3 a year

As for the estate tax I can only point you in the right direction, I'm not an accountant but the gist of it is that if you have a net worth over 11M (globally) any US holdings you own will get taxed upon your death if you are holding it under your personal name.
I'm nowhere near that TODAY but in 50 years time it's not that big of a stretch to get there.

I've been accumulating jr explorers for gold over the last couple of weeks - ROS RDS NFG CAPT (on the tsxv)
HAYW is a big pool pump maker but they already spiked.

thinking CLX becomes a good buy soon .. price has dropped as covid starts to fade into the rear view and people aren't buying as many disinfecting products, but they are the line of pool supplies carried at Lowes and Walmart.

failing that, maybe concrete or something -- SLCA?

not sure what fiberglass companies compete in this area.

virtually every pool in the US needs to be fenced in too. pool covers, but loop-loc who is the leader there isn't public.
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Old 05-06-2021, 01:37 PM   #2141
bursito
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

The fence is interesting, we know consumers won't choose wood since lumber is prohibitively expensive atm. Now to find one that hasn't popped yet

LESL tanking hard looks like the obvious plays are already over valued for pool supplies.
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Old 05-06-2021, 01:50 PM   #2142
OldBonesMcGee
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Bought some Biontech - BNTX
As of right now they seem still cheap after the "Biden-Vaccine-Stock"-Crash.
I consider it an overreaction it might not be that cheap much longer.

Biontech
close to 3 billion doses in 2021, up from a previous target of 2.5 billion.
>50% profit margin - price of a dose around ~$20

https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...es-2021-05-04/

Profit based on those numbers for 2021 should be roughly similar to their market cap right now.

Huge sales contracts already locked in and the production bottleneck isn't patent related but due to base chemicals.
So patent shenanigans wouldn't help much with bottlenecks anyway which makes them less likely to go through and if they do they shouldn't hurt as much as is priced in the market right now ...
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Old 05-06-2021, 01:53 PM   #2143
OldBonesMcGee
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Also option premiums are nuts you can buy some shares and sell far OTM covered calls for an absurd premium right now
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Old 05-07-2021, 02:20 PM   #2144
GTO2.0
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by BilldaCat View Post
My portfolio at the moment:

27% XOM jan 20c
18% XOM stock
9% MO
8% KO
8% MSFT
5% XLF
4% TAP Jan 50c
3% DRTT
3% PLTR
3% INTC Jan 2023 90c
3% PSEC
2% SPY Dec 2023 500c
1% various options .. XLF Sep 35c, AAPL Jan 150c, SDGR Jan 100c, AXP Jan 2023 220c, MO Jan 60c, XOM Oct 70c

this XOM/oil trade is taking a long damn time to play out, but i've waited this long, what's 3 more months
Pretty nice week for oil since this post. Might not need to wait 3 months.

Doin good on some July OIH and XLE calls I picked up a couple weeks ago. Up around 1.5x already.

Also thanks to people who pointed BXC. I got in way late around 40, but still a crazy run, and room to go imo. If wood shortage keeps up, could hit triple digits even.
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Old 05-07-2021, 02:22 PM   #2145
BilldaCat
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by GTO2.0 View Post
Pretty nice week for oil since this post. Might not need to wait 3 months.

Doin good on some July OIH and XLE calls I picked up a couple weeks ago. Up around 1.5x already.

Also thanks to people who pointed BXC. I got in way late around 40, but still a crazy run, and room to go imo. If wood shortage keeps up, could hit triple digits even.
yeah i'm back at my ATH. still holding -- I think XOM 70 is when I begin to scale out, and then I'm planning to throw that $ back into big tech for the most part.
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Old 05-10-2021, 08:54 AM   #2146
revots33
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Am I wrong in thinking the gravity of this pipeline ransomware attack is being underappreciated by the markets? I guess they will pay the ransom and try to plug whatever holes there are in their system, but this was a major pipeline that serves the entire east coast. Does not instill confidence in our national energy or power grids and could just be a sign of worse attacks to come.
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Old 05-10-2021, 09:04 AM   #2147
chytry
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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Am I wrong in thinking the gravity of this pipeline ransomware attack is being underappreciated by the markets? I guess they will pay the ransom and try to plug whatever holes there are in their system, but this was a major pipeline that serves the entire east coast. Does not instill confidence in our national energy or power grids and could just be a sign of worse attacks to come.
Attacks like this one are why I am in individual online security names but it still looks like organizations don't want to invest enough into online security.
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Old 05-10-2021, 03:55 PM   #2148
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Are the GME HODLers nothing more than a delusional cult at this point?

The stock is down 11% today. Dogecoin has taken over as the meme investment that is getting heavy media coverage. The fundamentals of the stock are terrible, they issued more shares recently and the idea that there are still tons of overleveraged shorts that they will crush by not selling does not seem to be true.
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Old 05-10-2021, 05:04 PM   #2149
karamazonk
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

I just spoke to a guy at the poker room who already has tens of thousands in GME. He told me that he loaded up “on the dip” today, both shares and calls, and that now is the time to buy because it’s “cheap.” He legitimately seems to have no concept as to how the price got to where it is. I told him I would gfo and that it’s inevitable it will head back below $60 and he looked at me like it was the dumbest thing he had ever heard. So much dumb money is going to get rekt on this thing.
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Old 05-10-2021, 05:51 PM   #2150
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Don't look at any subreddit devoted to GME or AMC. Its scary.

I have no clue the mechanics behind this. Bots, ******s, communists? No clue
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