Anyone else looking at the XRT ETF (basically a retail sector ETF) for shorting? Zooming out to look at its chart the last 5 years, it's bloated af right now and looks ripe to dump hard when the next sell-off hits.

Why would you short retail into an opening up/recovery/soaring revenue/record personal savings and pent-up demand about to be unleashed?

Sell da news. Seems like that's all already well priced in, but I could be wrong.

Buy the anticipation, sell the news/event/actuality, sure. Aren't we still in the anticipation phase?

As long as the future is better than the present, and there's nothing to induce fear, markets tend to buy.

In case anyone cares, I cashed in my WFC calls for like 65k in profit a while back. Should have held onto them. If anyone followed me on that trade, you made a mint.

Sold 50 of my SNTG calls but still holding 100 calls and 10k shares, although I'm souring a little bit on that one. I still believe it'll be higher but it might take longer than I originally hoped, Covid is well under control in the US but everyone else is f*cking it up.

Overall though I would say that I'm generally bullish on casinos and energy but overall I think most of the easy money has been made in this market and there's crazy amounts of speculative froth, which historically has ended poorly since people tend to be stupid.

It's also a little disheartening to see how much the dollar was devalued with all these Paycheck Protection Loans, I don't think your average man in the street realizes how many people that own businesses just got away with straight murder on that program (hence part of the reason why I'm bullish on casinos). But overall I don't really have any great ideas at the moment, I think a lot of the easy money has been made.

Good luck to everyone, hope trading has been going well and people are making money.

Cyclicals close to 52wk highs, growth mostly in a dumpster fire

will the trend continue?
reversal coming?
correction across the board?

i hope so that

I bought some 2023 200 calls on etsy this dump seems like an over reaction. I got luck and sold my shares at the top... just to get killed on KNR lol

FYI our company (major wholesaler) had it's best month EVER and we're in a very hard hit industry so I'd be really careful shorting those retail reopening stocks... seems obvious now that the move was to short the high flying lockdown stocks and long the reopening... oops there goes half my profits for 2021

How do we play the massive increase in residential pools? In my neighborhood there is 18 pools under construction - normally there's 2-3 a year

As for the estate tax I can only point you in the right direction, I'm not an accountant but the gist of it is that if you have a net worth over 11M (globally) any US holdings you own will get taxed upon your death if you are holding it under your personal name.
I'm nowhere near that TODAY but in 50 years time it's not that big of a stretch to get there.

I've been accumulating jr explorers for gold over the last couple of weeks - ROS RDS NFG CAPT (on the tsxv)

HAYW is a big pool pump maker but they already spiked.

thinking CLX becomes a good buy soon .. price has dropped as covid starts to fade into the rear view and people aren't buying as many disinfecting products, but they are the line of pool supplies carried at Lowes and Walmart.

failing that, maybe concrete or something -- SLCA?

not sure what fiberglass companies compete in this area.

virtually every pool in the US needs to be fenced in too. pool covers, but loop-loc who is the leader there isn't public.

The fence is interesting, we know consumers won't choose wood since lumber is prohibitively expensive atm. Now to find one that hasn't popped yet

LESL tanking hard looks like the obvious plays are already over valued for pool supplies.

Bought some Biontech - BNTX
As of right now they seem still cheap after the "Biden-Vaccine-Stock"-Crash.
I consider it an overreaction it might not be that cheap much longer.

Biontech
close to 3 billion doses in 2021, up from a previous target of 2.5 billion.
>50% profit margin - price of a dose around ~$20

https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...es-2021-05-04/

Profit based on those numbers for 2021 should be roughly similar to their market cap right now.

Huge sales contracts already locked in and the production bottleneck isn't patent related but due to base chemicals.
So patent shenanigans wouldn't help much with bottlenecks anyway which makes them less likely to go through and if they do they shouldn't hurt as much as is priced in the market right now ...

Also option premiums are nuts you can buy some shares and sell far OTM covered calls for an absurd premium right now

Pretty nice week for oil since this post. Might not need to wait 3 months.

Doin good on some July OIH and XLE calls I picked up a couple weeks ago. Up around 1.5x already.

Also thanks to people who pointed BXC. I got in way late around 40, but still a crazy run, and room to go imo. If wood shortage keeps up, could hit triple digits even.

yeah i'm back at my ATH. still holding -- I think XOM 70 is when I begin to scale out, and then I'm planning to throw that $ back into big tech for the most part.

Am I wrong in thinking the gravity of this pipeline ransomware attack is being underappreciated by the markets? I guess they will pay the ransom and try to plug whatever holes there are in their system, but this was a major pipeline that serves the entire east coast. Does not instill confidence in our national energy or power grids and could just be a sign of worse attacks to come.

Attacks like this one are why I am in individual online security names but it still looks like organizations don't want to invest enough into online security.

Are the GME HODLers nothing more than a delusional cult at this point?

The stock is down 11% today. Dogecoin has taken over as the meme investment that is getting heavy media coverage. The fundamentals of the stock are terrible, they issued more shares recently and the idea that there are still tons of overleveraged shorts that they will crush by not selling does not seem to be true.

I just spoke to a guy at the poker room who already has tens of thousands in GME. He told me that he loaded up “on the dip” today, both shares and calls, and that now is the time to buy because it’s “cheap.” He legitimately seems to have no concept as to how the price got to where it is. I told him I would gfo and that it’s inevitable it will head back below $60 and he looked at me like it was the dumbest thing he had ever heard. So much dumb money is going to get rekt on this thing.

Don't look at any subreddit devoted to GME or AMC. Its scary.

I have no clue the mechanics behind this. Bots, ******s, communists? No clue

Oh tell me about it. It's absolutely disgusting what is going on. I think they want to destroy the country at this point, or are too stupid to realize they are doing it. Law biding citizens are getting fed up.

This housing market looked topped out...

Record lumber prices, record level of homeowners renovating during covid, record rates, record market, and prime stimulus possibly in the rear view mirror. Home Depot has been packed for a year. That pendulum always swings for them.

I picked my accountant because he is known for being straight as an arrow, not aggressive with deductions or anything borderline. I asked for advice on getting the fees sorted out and told him we got shut down for 2 weeks in March and were not going to take the $500 a week benefit, but we could collect that to cover CRA's mistake charges. He told me that he thinks its the best option to get this resolved. They ignore all my letters.

Canyou move your tax related whinging to another thread?
It's nothing new under the sun.

not sure how you take all those signs into thinking housing market is topped out...looks like the housing market is going nuts in most markets

I thought costco would get hurt with the inflation but if they just keep 14% margin dont they make even more $

two scenarios

1$ to 1.14$ = 14 cent profit
1.50$ to 1.71$ = 21 cent profit

How elastic are their sales is the question then, it's mostly cheap stuff so would demand drop off enough to push the equilibrium into a less profitable zone