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Old 02-25-2021, 04:33 PM   #1776
Shuffle
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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Remember October 2018. When the 10Y gets high enough, I don't know, maybe approaching 1.5%, Powell is going to throw a massive tape bomb on the market.
^^^
Posted this last week. Watch the Fed. Powell just testified twice this week that he's all guns blazing, money spigots are open for everyone for a long time. But it's his MO to say something like this and pivot immediately the next day when the market calls for it.

FOMC has two choices:

1) turn hawks and take away the punch bowl
2) yield-curve control

First scenario USD surges and stocks crash until the Fed can't stand the political pain anymore and goes back to easy money.

Second scenario is like that endless salad bowl at Olive Garden ... except the one in hell when you can't stop eating even when you're full. Infinite balance sheet expansion will cap yields but kill USD.
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Old 02-25-2021, 04:52 PM   #1777
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Half a billion AMC shares traded for a dick downing of a day. I sold a few at 5x for the free roll earlier today. Gonna probably ride it out from here, though I'm still up 100% because of the IV
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Old 02-25-2021, 05:08 PM   #1778
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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^^^
Posted this last week. Watch the Fed. Powell just testified twice this week that he's all guns blazing, money spigots are open for everyone for a long time. But it's his MO to say something like this and pivot immediately the next day when the market calls for it.

FOMC has two choices:

1) turn hawks and take away the punch bowl
2) yield-curve control

First scenario USD surges and stocks crash until the Fed can't stand the political pain anymore and goes back to easy money.

Second scenario is like that endless salad bowl at Olive Garden ... except the one in hell when you can't stop eating even when you're full. Infinite balance sheet expansion will cap yields but kill USD.
Thoughts on oil in this environment? Increased demand over next year w/ covid ending+weakening USD+supply issues domestically from new admin policy and many projects taken offline when prices crashed

the big banks are starting to forecast $70-80 for crude by year end.
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Old 02-25-2021, 05:10 PM   #1779
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

This is the type of action that should make bulls nervous. No big headline to point at. Days of weakness and then a dump today. Not suggesting there's a one way move ahead but there is definitely a set up to increase that probability substantially. Another day like today might be a juicy opportunity to sell some volatility.... or completely rip the faces off of the rabid speculators

Personally I'm staying small until things get really wild. It's been pretty boring stuff for myself. I'm not interested in trying to call the top or hop on some "value", meme rockets, etc at these levels
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Old 02-25-2021, 05:25 PM   #1780
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

No way this is the top. This is just noise - not signal. Massive inflation and tons of liquidity are still in play. This will just be a small blip in a few weeks time. Just keep buying and stop trying to time the market. There will be a time to go short. This isn't it.
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Old 02-25-2021, 05:31 PM   #1781
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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Just keep buying and stop trying to time the market. There will be a time to go short. This isn't it.
what
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Old 02-25-2021, 06:04 PM   #1782
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
^^^
Posted this last week. Watch the Fed. Powell just testified twice this week that he's all guns blazing, money spigots are open for everyone for a long time. But it's his MO to say something like this and pivot immediately the next day when the market calls for it.

FOMC has two choices:

1) turn hawks and take away the punch bowl
2) yield-curve control

First scenario USD surges and stocks crash until the Fed can't stand the political pain anymore and goes back to easy money.

Second scenario is like that endless salad bowl at Olive Garden ... except the one in hell when you can't stop eating even when you're full. Infinite balance sheet expansion will cap yields but kill USD.
So what's the play on a dovish FED? Other than bitcoin thinking short the dollar or long U.S. multi-nationals play? There's a lot of conglomerates that would benefit from a weak dollar with the exchange rates....not really a pure play but just brainstorming here if the currency does get trashed from all this.
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Old 02-25-2021, 06:40 PM   #1783
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

i feel like druckenmiller has the right idea and i've been taking some off of my omega-awesome growth plays and stuffing it into asia ex-china and commodities. it doesn't feel pleasant but nothing does right now until jerome jawbones.

treasury space off that auction was prob the first fun scalp in that space since march. tapping into my bill gross vibes for the next week i suppose.

maybe the one way this isn't bloody is if today was just a temp puke from people not refinancing their home mortgages anymore and banks unwinding something.
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Old 02-25-2021, 07:21 PM   #1784
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

So gun to your head, GME up or down by tomorrow's close?
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Old 02-25-2021, 07:23 PM   #1785
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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So gun to your head, GME up or down by tomorrow's close?
UPS
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Old 02-25-2021, 08:58 PM   #1786
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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So gun to your head, GME up or down by tomorrow's close?
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Old 02-25-2021, 11:31 PM   #1787
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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what
Short it than. Good luck
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Old 02-25-2021, 11:33 PM   #1788
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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i've been taking some off of my omega-awesome growth plays and stuffing it into asia ex-china and commodities.
Specific symbols?
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Old 02-25-2021, 11:42 PM   #1789
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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what
Quote:
Originally Posted by djevans View Post
Short it than. Good luck
Quote:
Originally Posted by djevans View Post
Just keep buying and stop trying to time the market. There will be a time to go short. This isn't it.

You say stop trying to time the market and just buy, but then short later.

There's no logical consistency in your post.
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Old 02-26-2021, 12:29 AM   #1790
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

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You say stop trying to time the market and just buy, but then short later.

There's no logical consistency in your post.
Yes there is. This is just noise. It’s not signal. Nothing has changed. Fed still printing non stop. Bond rates are gonna get capped most likely. The virus is slowing down and everything is looking good. But if you wanna trade short term and short this market good luck. It could work out for you.


The time to go short is when they taper. Or they raise yields. Look at what Powell has said. You wanna bet against him!?

We could see further downside. Who knows. I know I’m buying this dip and will continue to buy further dips.
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Old 02-26-2021, 07:16 AM   #1791
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

would love to see some stocks come back to the level before the ridiculous Nov/Dec '20 run up
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Old 02-26-2021, 12:11 PM   #1792
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Every position I own is red today. Only a few % but it hurts to see.

Kinda seems like KNRL is dead. Did we get pump n dumped?
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Old 02-26-2021, 01:18 PM   #1793
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

I bought more KNR today and havent sold a share. There was a hit piece from mcgill over the weekend. KNR will show the units working in real environment in the coming weeks to respond to that. They havent had to raise more money because the deposits are paying for the biocloud units to be built. Government did not give them $2m to double production capacity without them showing that demand is there.

The entire CSE is pulling back too so it's not just KNR. It has a really tight float so big moves in either direction based on sentiment until we have real sales figures.

I'm still expecting big sales news by the end of March.

I sold some ETSY today and have to wait for the money to clear and transfer it to CDN to buy more KNR next week.

These are just my personal plays not investment advice, I brought it to the boards attention before a big run up that was very much justified. It wasn't a rumor or some speculation pump, it was a real news release of a 2M investment from the Canadian gov.
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Old 02-26-2021, 01:41 PM   #1794
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

I'm getting killed on DVN too but it's a 2-3 year investment for me, its a really long sales cycle to ensure the labels work properly before they roll them out in all the customer's stores. I also said I'm long the tech and bought Pricer AB too

Over the last 3-4 months I've been saying 'this is a long term play' and it reaches my target share price for 2023 in a couple of months. Need to get better at exiting instead of just trimming a bit.
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Old 02-26-2021, 02:00 PM   #1795
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread



KNR is the only stock with a loss in my top 10 holdings of my tfsa. Have talked about all those stocks in the last year on this board. Last march I went all in on FOOD and everything else was bought with shares I've trimmed from FOOD and then trimming from VERY
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Old 02-26-2021, 02:07 PM   #1796
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

My apologies. My post comes across as accusatory to you, but wasn't my intention.
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Old 02-26-2021, 02:10 PM   #1797
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

SOS murdered by hindenburg. i can't help but wonder if WSB will jump on it for no reason.
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Old 02-26-2021, 02:38 PM   #1798
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by bursito View Post
I'm getting killed on DVN too but it's a 2-3 year investment for me, its a really long sales cycle to ensure the labels work properly before they roll them out in all the customer's stores. I also said I'm long the tech and bought Pricer AB too

Over the last 3-4 months I've been saying 'this is a long term play' and it reaches my target share price for 2023 in a couple of months. Need to get better at exiting instead of just trimming a bit.
looks like a typical marketers pump and dump
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Old 02-26-2021, 03:08 PM   #1799
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

If you could find an actual stock promotion campaign pumping it I would sell it all right now. I think it's just choppy because it's highly speculative and a new CSE listing (which is how I found it myself, just looking through new listings).
It fits a few criteria I look for - high insider ownership from a previously successful team, good ESG component, large addressable market and no analyst coverage yet
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Old 02-26-2021, 03:45 PM   #1800
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Re: 2021 Trading Thread

bought FAZ 3/12 5.50 calls undersized at open
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