gave up on GLD, took my 8% gain and moved it into XOM, WFC, and TAN.

I want to give an overview as to why Ford F is likely to have a highly profitable 2021.

1. Low interest rates help them because it makes it easier for people to finance automobiles. A second way low interest rates help them is that they are able to borrow at lower cost.

2. New electric Mustang out and F150 coming out. Trucks represent 16 percent of the market and the F150 series is the best selling pickup.

3. Stimulus part 1 of 600 makes it easier for people to make down payments. Stimulus part 2 with Biden might be another 1200. That would be very good for autos.

4. Coronavirus vaccine means there will be a lot of investment in work vehicles as the economy opens back up. Trucks are high margin.

5. Very likely credit rating upgrade back to investment grade which will further lower their borrowing costs and enhance profitability.

6. Very profitable tax and carbon credits on a scale much bigger than Tesla. The F150 sold 200k units by itself last quarter alone. An electric F150 is a subsidy money printing machine worldwide.

7. The addressable worldwide market is expanding as the size of the middle class in various economies increases. Ford and all the car companies are likely going to need to make substantial capital investments to increase production capacity because they will be selling cars as quickly as they can produce them.

8. Largest electric car charging network.

9. Very high borrowing capacity. While it’s true that Tesla has a high market cap that it can tap to borrow funds, Ford has very high borrowing capacity because of its cash flow picture. It’s not unusual for them to borrow and pay back 10s of billions of dollars annually. That’s a slight edge that Tesla doesn’t have such a long history.

10. A strong moat in trucks with an expanding market. Americans especially are very loyal to their truck brand. It’s the reason Toyota could never dominate the market even with very high overall quality ratings. The TESLA truck looks impractical.

i was taught same but GSCI and agree it sucks

GSCI was a terrific arb but I think because GSCI was a future itself. We ran a big arb doing all of the pieces against the GSCI and also ran a spec frontrunning the monthly roll. This was my main gig for a couple of years and the frontrunner trade was especially fruitful. The arb itself worked well too but more as just a very good return on capital rather than outsized returns that the front run spec often provided.

where in the world is the middle class growing? is a ford truck (or any car) useful there?

not saying F is necessarily a bad pick, but the auto market is one of the most cutthroat markets in the world. high capital intensity, low margins, very cyclical.

what they could reasonably do (and probably should, given insane valuations), is spin out their EV business and cruise.

World gdp is growing although it doesn’t feel like it in the United States. Cars are useful everywhere. I think Ford will net 10 billion this year. It’s way undervalued.

Todays gamble was 3 baba 230 0 DTEs on a dip to 228.50. $1-6 in 20 minutes. Nothing special, karamazonk would appreciate it though. Was putting a limit sell in for $2 but decided to wait a few minutes until I had to leave for work.

want to drive an f150 here?

Haha, nice one! I feel so dumb I had the other side of this one exactly. Sold the calls last week though when I was ready to sell the stock at $228 and told myself $230 weekly calls for next week would give me $1350 on the 300 shares I had. Saw today I could of sold it after it dipped to $228 collecting 78% of the premium and then sold next week's expiring same calls for $2000. Opps

In good news I sold 7 of the 220P expiring 1/15 early this week and was massively in the red like -300% and now it's in the green

what years? i only looked at it briefly in 2013, tiny liquidity and wide spreads. maybe you were the spreader :O

Back in olden times The mid/late 90's. Everything was done in the pits and on the floor which was a pita for a 24 piece arb trade. When it got out of line you would be scrambling calling all of the different desks/exchanges to get your orders in. Once everything went screen the real edge got squeezed out of it. And the front run spec started to get noticed by the locals in the pits so that got squeezed out too.

Any really good arb has a limited shelf life before others catch on and the edge degrades so you always gotta be working and looking for the next thing when you are in that sort of business.

Well I am not one to say I told you so, but I told you so.

MITI closed at .071. Up 350% since I brought it to this board 30 days ago.

Hope some didn't listen to the naysayers and got in.

So far I am up around $300,000 on it this go around.

I doubt it stays this high for much longer as this run has come on no news at all, but a nice basing in the .04ish to .05ish range before we get solid financing, telemed opening, and M & A news would be very healthy for the stock.

RVVTF hanging in there as well. Hit .72 from my .21 call and currently around 50 cents. Expecting Phase III FDA covid results next month.

CTYX is next!

Haha, well done! I played the BABA move to the upside as well today but didn't get nearly as good a return; I still earned some decent green though.

That being said, I was fortunate to hit a grand slam today, thanks to BIDU. I heard the EV news yesterday and immediately bought some 220 calls for next week. For whatever reason, the market barely reacted yesterday, then went balls to the wall with it today, ended up returning over 500%. I was tempted to swing some of it but ended up selling everything; it turned what had been a breakeven week into a quite profitable one.

Hoping ABNB and FDX do well next week, am swinging some calls.

Has Jack Ma surfaced yet?

No, but he's confirmed not missing. He's "laying low."

Yeah, I'm not sure wtf has been going on with precious metals. I was anticipating a Dem sweep / "possible $2k check" stimulus pump and instead they have sold off in ugly fashion. Today's hard dump turned some positions that were up small or medium into red ones. Pretty brutal, but since most of my calls are pretty long dated and I'm foolish enough to think gold and silver might actually rebound, I'm holding.

Threeflight, I didn't know what you were up to in other parts of twoplustwo, but I don't think Doug Polk is interested in your 3 penny stock plays at this point. What is your motive for giving out this advice unprovoked in a thread about Doug's heads up challenge with Negreanu?

Just gonna leave this here

I think Doug's match with DN is a long con to set up a match with perkins and fleece him.

Meant unsolicited*, anyway, it looks bad and if you have watched any of Doug's videos you would know he is not buying penny stocks. Looks like the tickers were edited out. We get it, you have made a few thousand by buying some stocks and posting them online, assuming some of the gains had to be with posting on poker and looks like body building forums as well, probably others as well, based on a quick google search.

Started using Doordash in 2020. It's really easy. Maybe a little expensive but the convience of ordering food that normally you would have to drive 30 minutes is crazy. They just leave it at your door too so you don't even have to interact with driver.

In what city will Doordash deliver food from a restaurant 30 minutes away? And the drivers accept these jobs? Montana?

Could never bring myself to use dash. Looks like there is about a 10% markup off the bat and then the fee, tip, do they ask you to you tip the restaurant people as well? I already get take out food every night for the last 2 years, least I could do is pick it up. Can't imagine any of these drivers going 30 minutes each way for less than like $25-30. Taxi would be triple that.

I used DoorDash for a little while. Even tried out the DashPass. What I realized is that the service level you get is a real crap shoot.(I always tipped 20%).

The more I used it, the more I realized I was just paying a ton of money for a little convenience. But most of the time it wasn't even convenient because I was waiting 90 minutes for a place that's 2 miles from me and often times the food arrived lukewarm or even cold.

There were a few instances where they didn't even attempt to deliver to my door and just left it literally on the street across from my house saying "they couldn't find it."

I just ended up canceling everything and deleting the app. A lot of times it was just more headache than it's worth. If they had an option where they showed a driver's rating and you could reject a driver that would be cool. Or the option to tip afterwards. Bring my food fast you get a big tip. Take 2hrs because you decided to take 3 other orders after you took my order? You get a dollar. This whole pre tipping thing I feel like is misaligned incentives.

DASH puts are quite expensive compared to UBER. All from the volatility?