I think it's because of all the undeniable alpha it produces

Took off most at $3.37. Still have a tiny bit through yesterdays run. Looking to take off rest asap.

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/ne...003121499.html

Saw the title and immediately thought of this thread

Autistic futures trader who triggered crash spared prison

Final overwhelming proof that you can both live in your mom's basement and be a genius trader:

living in mom's basement says nothing about a person's character or ability imo

a mathematician (Perelman) who turned down the Fields medal and a $1M Millenium prize lives in a humble home with his mum in Russia ("I'm not interested in money or fame; I don't want to be on display like an animal in a zoo")

I'm supposed to be getting a job offer from Boeing to do financial analysis on their B-52 program here

With the knowledge we have now, I think the virus is >30% to have China-level infection and more in all countries. Possibly >90% if we assume all knowledge have now is correct (spread at a high rate during asymptomatic incubation period, death rates of 2% and serious hospitalization-required illness rates of 10%). Terrible mispricing 2% off highs here imo given the economic impact this will have.

Agree.

Hope official figures legit. WHO says 6k cases in China, but have seen foreign docs/epidemiologists claim 50k-100k already (their assumptions may be untenable tho).

I have not yet seen reliable info on rate of transmission during incubation.

Hah.

I'm a program finance analyst for a smaller company in the A&D industry... Funny.

You couldn't be more wrong.

The trade war paused until after the election with the signing of phase 1, which made the market go through highs.

The virus was responsible for the biggest drawdown since October. And it is in very early stages and most market participants believe it will go the way of SARS, which I don't think is a reasonable take, the bad tail is very fat.

Yes, this is what matters if nothing else is going on. But something else might be going on. Virus (if it spreads properly and has economic impacts) >>>>>>>>>>> Fed printing.

Wasn't sure if people are playing or discussing tsla earnings here on in the dedicated thread.... I got a free roll long for Feb and selling a March OTM call spread against it

This is definitely a fed market. That doesn't mean people trading shorter term should ignore things like potential pandemics, aapl earnings, trade wars, fed meetings, etc. All of those things are moving the market and creating significant opportunity.

As long as the fed is pumping I wouldn't step in front of this thing. I think one day it just stops working and starts ripping bull faces off. I'm not attempting to time things here but I'm playing accordingly. Bought cheap long dated VXX calls. Nibbling on small plays and squirreling away winners. Buying a bit of news dips. Staying engaged but staying small.

Looking at data more than headlines.

Already more infections in 1 month than SARS had in 9 months.

Virus worst case scenario and bad cases would have huge economic impact.

If it has an unlimited capacity then why did the market tank in 2008/2009? They can just print their way out! No need for recessions

You went from conspiracy theories/prepper to "fed owns my brain!". There's a normal middle ground you know - which is that fed printing gives a bid and confidence which buys up slowly normally but can easily be overwhelmed by negative economic events or outlooks.

Another strange twist to the puzzle is that chinese markets won't/ haven't been open all week due to the holiday. It's possible that those markets being closed are slowing down the market's processing of the virus. It's like an unintentional market lock. Could be nothing, could be something.

For what it's worth markets very rarely make significant tops around "events". It's more likely in this case, imo because you have both the market structure signaling that you should be cautious and the possibility of a major trade disruption due to the virus. Most of the time when something like this occurs the market isn't ripe for a move lower.

In regards to the contention only the fed's monetary policy matters, that argument has been made before. Check the gold bug's arguments from 2010-11.

Count me on team virus is way underestimated by market thus far

This is the largest quarantine in human history, I sure hope it works...

6k people trapped on a CCL ship in Italy with two suspected coronavirus cases on board.

Taking a stab at fading TSLA at 646.72.

The timeframes you're trading on is pretty essential to the question of what really matters. If you're buying LEAPS, sure, you're argument has some merit. If you're buying weeklies LOL NO.

Confirmed negative, I've closed out all my cruise shorts. I'm starting to get the idea that this is mostly a china specific issue due to poor hygiene standards over there. This will no doubt have an impact on the global economy until they get this under control, but the market is forward looking and fed is still pumping money into it.

Nice score either way ��

Chinese people have better hygiene standards than the West when it comes to person-to-person spread.

Spread seems very much to be similar to the flu, and that sweeps easily through the US every year.

global times reporting a surprising slowing in new cases so there's been some risk on for the last hour. regardless day session has been quiet compared to the asia session.

i think meta has sorta shifted to where a lot of the moves are gonna happen overnight for the next week largely based on new cases measured against expected cases.

???

When I put the trade on last Thursday I thought so too, but recent slowing seems to indicate otherwise. Also Chinese hospitals can only process so many tests per day, and the slowing down last night seems to suggest that a bunch of the past few days growth in cases were likely backlogged tests. Regardless, trade thesis has changed and I'd be very shocked to see many more cases outside of China popping up, so today seems like a good day to take the chips off the table.